Predicted exam results poor and future prospects

[Curiouscucumber]

My DS is in y7 and struggles academically. He has ASD and ADHD. We were told they start looking at predictions already and have said they expect he will achieve 1s, 2s and 3s in y11. We have a maths and English tutor, he has an ehcp and giving him as much support as we can. I guess I'm wondering, did anyone else's child get predicted such grades and manage to improve upon them? Or if not, what did your child do after GCSEs?

Predications don't mean very much. This is just the average grade achieved by children with the same SATs results, that is all. Its a national formula. Most people don't get the average do they? That is just the mean, most people get something else, better or worse. It's just a rough idea.

If your child gets grades this low, I am afraid the news is not good. There are jobs and apprenticeships at this level, but the competition is intense. In fact, there is more competition at this level than at top levels.

The best thing you can do for your child is work on giving him the edge. What other skills can he develop to put on his CV? Sport? Team games? Music? Art? Cooking? Gardening? These last two could be quite important as a lot of students with low GCSE grades end up in these sectors, and experience and confidence will help.

What is his communication like? Upright posture and clear voice help too, and the right amount of eye contact ( obviously, the "right amount" is going to be different for an individual with ASD)

The biggest challenge with students at this level is, in a system focussed entirely on GCSE results, to raise them to understand that there are far more important things! Kindness, trustworthiness, common sense - these are all far more valued in adult relationships than exam certificates. Please make sure your son knows this

It's hard enough to predict GCSE results at the beginning of Y10! The Y7 predictions often bear little resemblance to outcomes.

Starting with basics, can he produce a story or piece of writing that has some sort of structure, makes sense and can be read without a struggle. Can he do straightforward calculations appropriate for his age - not the complicated stuff - does he understand how numbers work? And does he have a good understanding of some topics that are rooted in history or science?

If not, they're the things to work on. If he does, I would approach his head of year and get some feedback on individual subjects.

At that age I’d take GCSE predictions with a grain of salt. In my opinion it’s ridiculous that the school is even thinking about it in Y7. A lot changes in 5 years! In DD’s year group a lot of the pupils who were at the ‘bottom’ at that age are now the ones doing medicine, law etc at university. The kids who were gifted from a young age burned out early and are mostly in very average unis doing very average degrees

@sharptoothlemonshark there aren't many Apprenticeships for 1-3 achievers. They got rid of a lot of L2 entry level Apprenticeships so many now start at L3 (A-level equivalent). L3 requirements are to achieve L2 Functional Skills maths and English. Many Apprenticeships are incredibly competitive and 1-3 wouldn't be accepted, in addition Apprenticeships have become a lot more academic.

Well training courses then - an ex student of mine has just started an apprenticeship in carpentry. He has no GCSEs to speak of, I can't remember exactly, maybe a 1 and a 2, or similar. He was working as a labourer for the company for 6 months first, then this was offered to him. They like his attitude and trust him. He is a lovely lad. This is the second of my students with ASD and MLD who have succeeded in landing an apprenticeship in carpentry without GCSEs.

But you are right, apprenticeships at this level are rare. There are "training courses" though, which are effectively very similar

I have 2 dc, both diagnoses with ASD, eldest got amazing grades and is now at uni, youngest only sat 3 GCSE’s and only passed one. It’s not something I worry about. My eldest may come out with a degree but I doubt she will secure a high paid job, her ASD effects her a lot and she lacks a lot of common sense.

I have friends that didn’t get any exams and now earn good money working in a trade. There are so many options out there that don’t evolve being good at exams. I was out with a friend today who is severely dyslexic but he has a good trade job and is considering early retirement.

I myself didn’t do well at school (possible ASD and dyslexia) but at the age of 18 I was a head chef and earning more than double what my friends were earning. There are loads of options now after GCSE’s and the possibility of re sits for maths and English if needed. He has a long way to go until GCSE’s, a lot can happen between now and then, but even if he does struggle there are lots of options.

@sharptoothlemonshark except training courses don't pay you a wage while you earn. Yes colleges will run training courses without any entry requirements but they are very different to Apprenticeships.

As I said, there is a lot of competition at this level - more so than at higher levels, hence my earlier advice.

A lot can change in 5 years.
However there is life if they don't get 5 GCSEs. They can do further Level 1 or Level 2 courses in all sorts of interesting subjects which include Maths and English resits if necessary, at GCSE or Functional Skills level. If they have an EHCP they can keep funding for study up to 25 I believe.
Following level 2 or after 18 they can do a level 3 course, apprenticeship or get a job

I meant to say, under current rules whatever they study post 16, they will also have to keep retaking maths and English until they either pass GCSE/ functional skills or exit education.

In 5 years particularly if govt changes, this could all be totally different. But there will still be lots of further ed options.

GCSE predictions in Year 7 are a joke, a lot can change until your ds will sit his GCSEs.
First of all turn it around on the school: how are they going to support your ds in order to get better grades? These predictions are in no way set in stone!
It might be a little too early to look at colleges, but if it will help do talk to your local career service and college about options.

Start observing what he loves doing in his free time. Hopefully that can be converted into a career.

We are good at what we enjoy.

I have an ADHD child who dropped out of school, suffered from depression etc. Thought he would never do anything but he has started a business and it seems to be doing ok. These kids can have hyper focus with the ADHD which helps. Try not worrying so much about exams and just focus on what he likes doing and is good at. See whether you can help him build skills in a different way.

Mine became a tyre fitter. Has his own van. Its not a physically easy job but with overtime and shift allowances he probably earns more than lots of his peers, late 20s.

Perhaps look at opportunities in Trades. There's a shortage of trained plumbers, car mechanics, heating engineers, fitters etc. Also building skills are definitely needed. There are plenty of opportunities for training and alternatives to GCSEs.

What are they using to predict the GCSE grades? Is it his SATs scores?

Remember your child is probably less mature than the other children it's very common with ASD. My son has ASD and the difference between year 7 and year 11 was amazing.

In the next few years keep an eye on motivation. Hard work matters and makes a huge difference to the outcome. I've taught students who have worked hard, and out performed their predictions and other more talented but less hardworking students.

Thanks everyone for your comments. I have always focused on being kind and explaining being helpful and thoughtful, clean and tidy, go along way in life. I'm also constantly encouraging him to try new sports or other activities. Like most ASD and adhd'ers, he loves his screen a bit too much. Homework is so stressful but we keep persevering. I think his mental immaturity is definitely holding him back from working as hard as he could. I'll look into all options and just keep being as supportive as possible. It's so tough for him because he knows he struggles and his friends don't.

He didn't do SATs but some other appropriate equivalent for his learning level. They base predictions off continuously assessing.

My friend's son didn't do SATS.

They moved house and area after Year 6 but if they had stayed, the local Special secondary school would not have allowed him to do GCSEs. When they moved, his parents got the LA to agree to fund a place at a private school which specialised in children with additional needs. He did his GCSEs and A levels and has just started at university.

All kids are clearly different but some are totally failed by the education system and can thrive in the right environment.

As people have said, so much can change in 5 years. My eldest picked an instrument up at 13 going on 14 and learned to play it, self taught. At 13,14, 15 we had no idea that an interest would develop to where it has, but he just followed what he discovered he loved, a bit at a time. It's scary when everyone is taking an academic route or you know they'll do something that leads to a trade and your child is going completely off piste, but we couldn't be happier or more proud.
Brick laying, plumbing etc was never going to be for him so he falls in an interesting gap between the academic and the practical.

Thankfully what he always had was his self belief that he can learn the things he's interested in, in his own way and in his own time.
Try to build that in your child in whatever way you find.. And that may mean taking the emphasis of academics for a bit.

If he's good at gaming, he'll be developing his problem solving skills and his finer motor skills. It turned out the timing and precision my son honed through gaming were absolutely essential skills for playing an instrument with any degree of proficiency!
Maybe your son will enjoy board games too? He'll develop strategic thinking which is another soft skill that's so important.