Those with big jobs who make big decisions, how do you know you're right?

[WhatASwizzz]

Sorry if the thread title is a little woolly! I've recently started having some professional coaching, offered at work (due to me being female in a very male dominated sector and having just moved into a more senior role). After a few sessions, we've hit upon a stumbling block. I'm scared of being wrong, getting things wrong, being criticised. It's hindering my decision making capabilities and at times makes me seem defensive. I usually have reasons behind my decisions but my role is quite subjective (marketing) so everyone has a bloody opinion and sometimes I just freeze and can't make a decision. Then I go the opposite way and make snap decisions because I feel it makes me look authoritative. So my question is to those with jobs where you need to make decisions that others might question, how do you do it? How do you know you're right? And how do you deal with opposition?

If the Covid inquiry is teaching us anything, it’s that even the most senior, highly qualified & expert people in the country are making very difficult decisions based on incomplete or sometimes contradictory information, with multiple undesirable trade-offs to consider while up against fixed deadlines.

That’s what leadership is, and it’s what they sign up for when they accept the Big Job.

My OH makes huge (in a business sense) decisions all the time. He reckons it's more important to make decisions in a timely manner than to make the perfect decision....
Sometimes he does this with things at home and he acts so much like his way is the correct and only way. It's a bit annoying, but then he does get things done.

Risk assessment. I manage an eye watering budget. If I think about it I panic. I
try not to. Last year I sent work out to critical partners worth £50m and I alone am responsible for that.

I make decisions based on previous figures, demand, risk and instinct. I have robust measures in place to protect those decisions (so performance as an example). The contracts in place for this work are actively used and referred to, so performance is regularly reviewed and acted on.

so risk analysis and mitigation of risk would
be my suggestions.

Knowing what matters. I am no longer a big decision maker, but when I was I had a shortlist along the lines of:

• risk
• reputation
• cost
• stakeholder views
• precedent setting

Depends on the context obviously. But I’d want to be happy with those things - or have a plan/justification in mind.

But at the end of the day, you do just have to have the confidence to go for it. You can never be certain a decision is right - if you could then it wouldn’t be a big decision - but you can be certain that you can back up why you made that decision at that time, with the information you had available.

I think you make the best decision you can with the information available at the time. The real skill is a couple of months later if things aren't going well making the call as to whether to accept it was the wrong choice and change direction totally or to make the best of the situation. Nobody will get this right 100 percent of the time. Or even 50 percent. I agree with others though, not making any decision is worse.

Absolutely this.
You have to sit (semi) comfortably that you will not always be right BUT you have acted in a way that concurs with your gut/morals/beliefs. And listen to colleagues on and off the record

You don’t know, most things are subjective, you just go with what you think is best.

You don’t have to shout down the opposition, or reopen a debate, just say you’ve considered all the angles and this is what you’re going with. The end.

2 good pieces of advice I got

The most important thing is to make a decision so everyone can move forward. What it is is much less important

90% of things work out fine. And for the 10% that don’t 9/10 times you can fix it. As for the remaining 1% - everyone has some fuck ups

I also think it’s the middle to lower management that end up taking responsibility. That’s me, I definitely feel the responsibility for decisions the team makes, it’s tough. I really do not think my seniors get the same level of scrutiny at all.

It’s experience, trusting your team and sometimes your gut that generally helps decision making and yes, acknowledging mistakes.

In my job, I would be useless if I didn’t have confidence to make the tough decisions.

All you can do is gather as much information as you can and then hope for the best! Actually, I say that's all you can do but, if the occasion allows, I would also suggest sleeping on it.

Where strategy is completely detached from the operational side, it is easier for decision takers to avoid blame. A strategic decision is made that is unachievable, and then when it fails to materialise the implementation is blamed.

This is a feature of modern life - right up to cabinet ministers who don't resign when their department mucks up.

I found that with experience, you know you are right in your gut, it's very intuitive and initially I didn't trust that instinct but now I do because it hasn't failed me, triple checking your facts also helps obviously.

OP,

I make decisions all the time.

Some are instinctive, some are evidence based.

In terms of marketing, you should have a lot of data available to you.

Market insights, customer segmentation, competitor and analyst analysis.

What are the trends and themes they're highlighting for 2024? What's the corporate strategy? How can you and you team support those goals?

Your decisions should be aligned with that information, which will give you confidence in your direction.

Mindtools is good for this sort of thing

www.mindtools.com/aiplsat/how-to-make-decisions

I work in the same industry as you and the buck stops with me.

I remind myself that making any decision is better than no decision, and that usually there is no such thing as a wrong decision anyway. Just make one and execute it with your full energy and conviction. I’m also fully prepared to deal with the fallout if it was a bad decision and it doesn’t scare me.

I lean a lot on data and scoping and won’t make big decisions until I feel I have the information I need.

I also remind myself that it’s just marketing. No one will die. How wrong can it go?

if people disagree with me, I listen. I like to have my mind changed, it’s good to learn from other people, one human can’t possibly know everything. If they don’t change my mind, I will just restate my position and why I reached that decision, and let the team know that I understand it’s on my head.

I have one colleague that I often bitterly disagree with and it can get very heated, but we ultimately have a huge amount of respect for each other. If we clash, we retreat and cool off then have a more respectful conversation and find a middle way.

To find my inner confidence, I have a professional role model. I ask myself what she would do? She’s bold and confident and seemingly fearless, direct without being aggressive - i pretend I am her when I have to. Fake it til you make it.

Marketing experts use data to inform decision making

Guys - thank you. Deeply. So much for me to digest in these responses and some real golden nuggets. I really do appreciate it.

Great thread op!

As above I remind myself 'what's the worse that could happen?', and that my own boss is making much bigger / riskier / high financial risks decisions than I am, and he doesn't always get them right either.

No one ‘knows’ they are right, they think they are based on their experience and understanding of the problem. I would suggest thinking about your decision making processes and get comfortable with how you make a decision rather than fixating on the individual decisions.

For me it's not about always thinking / knowing I'm right. It's more about being able to 'feel' the risk inherent in the thing I'm dealing with. So being experienced / confident / secure enough to just go with my decisions. What really helps is having a supportive boss who has my back (and is awesome).

For me, the key was to have a process to move from information gathering to option generation through evaluation to decision. It's so tempting to hang around in the first two steps. But as a leader you have to move things on. That means you have to make good enough decisions with the information and advice available at the time, There is no perfect. And a bit of humility to acknowledge when you've got it wrong and need to reconsider is critical.

My mantra is to make the best decision you can, based on the facts and evidence in front of you. Sometimes however, there are none! Sometimes you just have to go with your gut feel, or what you think is right. Be prepared to deal with the consequences though.

Personally, I'm willing to admit when I've got it wrong, and should have done things differently. I've worked with other senior leaders who are incapable of conceding a mistake, and I've found them a nightmare to work with as they usually have raging egos.

I haven't RTFT but I always tell my staff, "Make a decision. 9 times out of 10 it will be the right one, and the 1 time it isn't will take less time to fix than all of you coming to me to make every decision for you." It vastly reduces the amount of dithering and no major disasters have occurred. They're really good at knowing when to pull me in to confirm a decision they're not sure about and when to just get on with it.

I follow the same rule for my own decisions. I don't work in brain surgery or sending people to the moon. No one's going to die if I get it wrong from time to time. I have the experience I need to make the overwhelming majority of decisions needed in my role, and I know who to ask when I don't know. Luckily my CEO hates being pestered by ditherers as much as I do,so forgives the occasional mistake!

Well I take a view based on my experience and technical knowledge - and I read and consult as needed

I will always err on the side of caution

the most important thing actually is to know what you know and know what you don’t know - and consult

I work in a highly regulated industry.

We consult widely to establish our options. Then review those options using expert staff using a framework to consider benefits, disbenefits, risks, costs, and we document the assumptions that underlie them. We clearly identify why the particular option was chosen, and make sure the risks associated with it are mitigated. We then publish this for everyone to see, and review it at key points in the lifecycle to check that our assumptions and decisions remain valid.

If the evidence changes, we go through the process again. We don’t rely on snap decisions or gut instinct, although years of experience do help in identifying the risks, and help to find mitigations that are likely to be acceptable.