How will people afford cars in the future?

[stbrandonsboat]

This 'no new petrol cars to be sold from 2030' is rather worrying. From what I've seen, electric cars are super expensive and prices of used petrol cars are going to become unaffordable as well as the deadline looms. How are ordinary people going to be able to afford cars?

How much does it cost to lease an electric car? Why aren't electric cars smaller? All the ones I see are massive. I have vehicle anxiety 🫣

People who point out that we cannot return to this aren't doing it out of fear, they're recognising that it just isn't feasible.

People no longer live next to their workplaces and even if they could afford to buy a house near work, which is unlikely, the chances of both adults working within walking distance of each other is slim to none.

I'm saying this as someone who has an electric car and primarily catches the bus to work btw and who would love public transport to be more accessible.

The fact is that our choice to be environmentally friendly has come at an economic cost that's beyond a lot of people. It is also less convenient and the current infrastructure is already creaking at the seams with a pretty limited usage.

The problem is the location of affordable housing and of work that let's you afford that housing. Usually for two or more individuals in each dwelling.

And the location of services you need - education, health, shopping.

If the locations aren't close to each other, walking is impractical.

If there are inadequate safe footpaths, walking is impractical.

@DatumTarum As a community nhs worker who’s patch covers a large chunk of a rural county I can tell
you there’s no way I can ‘go back to’ that. My patients can be 20miles apart. Is not a case of being terrified, it’s a case of being able to do my job providing a vital service to others who mainly do not live near me.

You really think that in the 2020s the majority of people are able to work just within their local communities?

There is no “too far” with the green agenda. It can’t be taken too far. We are at crunch point and not doing enough.

but it needs to be done in a way that helps people, rather than penalising them.

You're a service, not a commuter.

@DatumTarum

The only place you can get a bus to from my town is the nearby city (plus there is a 2 hourly town bus that loops around the town) this is useless if you work in the next town along - 13-15 mins drive, or 1 hour 48 mins by timetable by bus (via the aforementioned nearby city). If you don't live in a big city cars are necessary to be able to work

@MoltenLasagne

We do it. Most of the people I know here get public transport, walk or cycle to work.

It's a city. It works in cities the world over.

@megletthesecond

I've asked the same question of our management company, we are owned housing (expensive!) with communal rear car parks. We have 3 allocated spots

Car finance has made having a vehicle much easier, sadly one consequence has been that SUVs has increased.

No, people aren't "terrified" of it, they just understand the practicalities or lack of.

A few decades ago, people had everything they needed within walking distance. That's education, shops, workplaces, healthcare, the lot. Every housing estate had a least one parade/precinct of the full range of shops, and also a GP surgery, a school, etc. Likewise every village. Most people could work close to home, either walkable, cyclable or with a good, cheap, bus service. You could get a bus to your nearest town centre for the "big" shops, chain stores, etc as well as specialist/occasional shops such as department stores, furniture shops, clothing shops, etc.

I grew up in the 70s. I had a choice of probably 5 or 6 "sweet shops" within easy walking distance on street corners, alongside a couple of newsagents, grocers, butchers, greengrocers, bakers, etc - all without living my housing estate!

I moved to our village 25 years ago. Back then it had two convenience stores, a butchers, a post office, 2 newsagents, a GP surgery, a chemist, a fish and chip shop, a greengrocer, a hardware shop, a primary school, 3 pubs. There were also local jobs in a few offices, a few light industry units, etc. Today, literally ALL that has gone. We now just have a Co-Op. 25 years ago, it was perfectly feasible for people to go about their "daily business" on foot within the village. Now a car is almost essential as the bus service is awful, and everything you need is a few miles away in the next town.

There's no reversing that, sadly. If they want people out of their cars, they're going to have to massively improve the local bus service.

Public transport can work in the cities, but it's far too expensive to provide any kind of decent/usable service in the smaller towns, villages and rural areas.

I’m going to invest in a horse and buggy

no new petrol cars to be sold from 2030

New cars is the clue
So you can keep your old car
Or Buy a second hand car
In order to sell new cars prices will have to drop
Or they will be on lease

EVs are expensive yes but there will be plenty of petrol/diesel
2nd hand cars on the market for many years

not sure how people don’t understand this.

re size there are some small EVs on the market but because of sizes of batteries the smaller ones aren’t that efficient/won’t get decent range. This is slowly changing.

That was t the question though was it? People have adapted to car ownership and public transport is terrible and expensive. So the scenario you speak of does not exist sadly.

I suspect that deadline is going to get bumped. I seriously doubt the infrastructure will be ready in time in less dense, car dependent areas .

im also reminded of the irony of a news story I saw right after California passed a new law about electric cars. Practically the same day they were asking people not to charge their ev during the day or unless necessary because they were having power grid issues.

I want to buy a car that is better for the environment, but the ev rollout is slow and with single use batteries and the like I’m worried there are problems we aren’t talking about.

I have medical issues that make public transit problematic, even if it was better in my area, so I am always going to have a car.

We have a smallish electric car! A Kia Niro.

I don’t think the 2030 deadline will stand, it is unreasonable and will be moved forward.

Just remember this is current government policy. The likelihood is that that date will change.

The issue is still that car manufacturers have stopped making petrol and diesel cars. So yes those cars will hold their value. Particularly because difficult sods like my DP and other car buffs refuse to buy electric cars so petrol/diesel will become even more doughy after.

Unfortunately electric cars don’t solve climate change. They will just exacerbate different problems due to the need for precious metals and the problem with dealing with a huge volume of old batteries. Hydro cars will be the future.

Exactly, employers have tended to contract themselves into just a few major cities, so workers have to move to the cities or face very long commutes. That's left a vacuum of job opportunities in smaller cities, towns and rural areas.

Just look at graduates. Very few return to their home towns after graduation for work, simply because if you live outside a handful of big cities, there is very little graduate work available and they'd be stuck in minimum wage retail, hospitality or care work. They stay in their Uni cities for jobs or they move to other big cities where the majority of larger employers are based. That leaves a vacuum of people in smaller cities, towns and rural areas.

When there are fewer people, the local services close down, and public transport options are reduced/removed. It's a vicious circle.

We can't all live in a handful of cities where good public transport is feasible, so those living in smaller cities, towns and rural areas will continue to need cars. There are too few people to justify lots of local shops, lots of GP surgeries, lots of libraries, regular buses, etc.

Politicians need to understand that!

The model of car ownership may well change. AI and autopilot would mean you use e.g. an app and your Google car arrives and picks you up. You get to your destination and then do the same to get back. It will be a subscription model so you pay e.g. £1k and when it runs out you top up. Oh, and Google get to mine the data and share it. If you are richer you can afford a car. Simple as.

The deadline will have to be amended I think. It was probably just intended to win votes and pretend to be green. if the calculation of the date has been really well thought through and all relevant factors had been taken into account, it’s unlikely to have ended up at such a round figure of 2030. It’s political guff. Anyway, I don’t know much about EVs but you can get things like a Nissan leaf which is a small car or get the electric versions of other small cars. Cars like the VW Up come in electric versions.

The theory is mobility as a service do you don't own a car, you get one when you need it. With autonomy and increased working from home it should work better.

The other side of this is the manufacturer of an autonomous vehicle is responsible if they crash so they are incentivised to keep the ownership so they're properly maintained.

I'm still not totally convinced on the timelines.

Same here. Outskirt of an actual small/medium sized city and we have buses in the morning one way, and back the other way during term time. It's a 20-30 mintues walk to another main road to the main bus route that has a bus every 20 minutes. And that only goes to the city centres and not where I need to go. None of the children's club or DH or my work are on bus routes.

I seriously wonder what people are thinking when I see posts like this....

Yes there are small electric cars. e.g. Renault Zoe, Honda e, or the fun little Ami.

EV's are right now expensive as it's new tech, and nearly all vehicles are new but new prices are reducing all the time

In 7 years there will be vast numbers of used EV's available at lower prices.

EV's are very much cheaper to run as mostly you have cheaper fuel, no servicing and fewer repairs.

Oh and before anyone asks, they don't generally burst into flames (9 times less likely than petrol!, and Batteries do last quite a long time, oh and you are no more likely to need a new battery than a new engine...)

This is a UK government policy, and the UK no longer has any meaningful car production itself. Unless governments all over adopt a similar deadline, manufacturers will not be shutting down production because they'll still have thriving markets elsewhere to service. They may wind down delivery to the UK in the run up to the deadline, assuming it ever materialises, but they are not going to miss out on potential sales and if you want to buy a brand new car on 30/12/2029, they'll make sure they can sell you one because they'll just be able to ship unsold stock back out of the UK in any case.