By-elections

[Westfacing]

How are they going to go?

There's been so much talk about how the Tories will lose all three - is that a ploy to make it look like a victory if they hang on to one of them?

It will be a disaster for Labour if they don't take Uxbridge.

Surprised not to be able to find a thread on this, but if there is an active one please direct me!

Will people turn out to vote, do they see it as a forgone conclusion the Tories will lose? Could that lead them to keep one of the seats?

Well we'll find out soon as polls close soon!

Why would it be a disaster for Labour to not win a seat that they did not previously hold?

Because they're hoping to overturn an 80-seat majority at the next general election; and the discredited Johnson last held this seat.

Going to be staying up to see the results.

I was hoping for exit polls from Prof John Curtis!

Tbf I’d very much doubt any of them are automatic labour shoe ins and I don’t think labour are of the opinion either. Haven’t they all been true blue Tory for donkeys years ?

I should have thought that the Tory proportion of the vote dropping by more than 25% in two of the seats being contested is more of a disaster?

Not every seat needs to change at the next general election, local factors will come into play, but even the swing in Uxbridge is enough to see Labour as the largest party if it were replicated at a GE.

Selby and Ainsty has only ever been Tory, but it was only created in 2010. Much of the consituency was in the old Selby constituency which tended to return an MP who was from the party that won the most seats nationwide.

Somerton and Frome was Lib Dem from 1997-2015, at each election David Heath held the seat by a few hundred seats.
A win by more than 10,000 is significantly different from that, and will make many SW Tory MPs nervous.

Yes it is a disaster for the Tories with such losses - I would have hoped for an Uxbridge win but clearly Ulez was a factor. Any disappointment is set aside by the huge win in Selby!

The swing in Uxbridge is still large enough that if it were uniform across Emgland Labour would likely be the largest party. *Would depend on the Lib Dems taking about 10 Con seats and what happens with the redistribution of some SNP seats which seems likely.

It sounds like there was a specific reason that Labour didn't win Uxbridge (ULEZ) so I think the Tories should see the writing on the wall which is Tories Out.

If you average the swing away from the Tories (21%) thenn they are looking at little more than a coach load of MPs after the next General Election.

Turnout was terrible in all three constituencies. Well below average for a by-election.

That's the key here. Because that means there is a pool of voters who could fuck everything up come the next election that no one can predict.

Arguably one of the few times abstaining can be said to make sense. Although it may have been better if all the people who were consciously abstaining (because some will have been washing their hair) turned up and spoiled their papers. That way it would be an indicator of how pisspoor the parties had done their job.