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Original poster

Yr 6 SATS and GCSE 'flight path'

42 replies

Thingsthatgo · 21/04/2023 07:09

Firstly, as an ex teacher, I think that using the SATS as an indicator of GCSEs is questionable, but I have not looked into the stats.
My question is this.... if a child gets 100% in their SATS do they get predicted 8s and 9s at GCSE, or does it not work like that?
Is it a prediction for all GCSEs, or just maths and english because that is what the SATS test?

OP posts:
YellowGreenBlue · 21/04/2023 07:15

IME yes. My 15yo DD is in year 10 and has a target grade of 9 for ALL of her GCSEs because she did very well in SATs. It's completely unrealistic. I've told her to ignore her target grades and focus on her forecast grades (which are set by her current teachers and nothing to do with SATs) which are a mixture of 7s, 8s and 9s.

CleanHankie · 21/04/2023 07:16

I can't answer as a teacher but in my experience as a parent, my daughter got very high marks in the Sats and has consistently been predicted grade 8 across all subjects. It's never altered until her last report which has come out 4 months before she starts her gcse's, which finally showed more accurate (& achievable) grades for her.

3WildOnes · 21/04/2023 07:17

Yes her sats will set her targets for all subjects including art, drama, etc. If she achieves 120 then her targets will likely be 8/9.

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MrsBennetsPoorNerves · 21/04/2023 07:17

Yes, my dd was given a target of 9s in all of her GCSEs on the basis of her Y6 SATS.

IglesiasPiggl · 21/04/2023 07:30

Our school doesn't use the SATs at all. They sit a separate CAT and reading assessment at the start of Y7, and they use that. In my experience, children who do well at SATs tend to continue to do well, but not necessarily vice versa. The SATs don't account for those who develop later, in Y8 or 9, nor indeed those who do well at say, geography or history because they're interested in the subject matter.

Original poster
Thingsthatgo · 21/04/2023 07:31

Thanks for replying. Seems a bit ridiculous. My DCs will both likely get 100% in their SATS, but I think predicting all 9s atGSCE is setting them up for disappointment and feelings of failure.

OP posts:
YellowGreenBlue · 21/04/2023 07:46

I honestly don't think my DD feels like a failure. She knows that the ten 9s have come out of a computer and are not realistic for her. She told me herself it's ridiculous! As I say, the school also give forecast grades as well as target grades, and these are more achievable.

Khara · 21/04/2023 07:47

It's all subjects. I remember dd's art teacher bemoaning the fact at parents evening. Just because dd achieved high marks in maths and English sats it doesn't mean she's Picasso.

LearningToLearn · 21/04/2023 07:51

How hard is it to achieve 100%?
Can any bright child achieve this?

3WildOnes · 21/04/2023 07:52

IglesiasPiggl · 21/04/2023 07:30

Our school doesn't use the SATs at all. They sit a separate CAT and reading assessment at the start of Y7, and they use that. In my experience, children who do well at SATs tend to continue to do well, but not necessarily vice versa. The SATs don't account for those who develop later, in Y8 or 9, nor indeed those who do well at say, geography or history because they're interested in the subject matter.

Schools can use their own tests for setting but each student will have target grades (assuming a state school) based on ks2 sats. It is how schools progress 8 scores are calculated.

Guinefort · 21/04/2023 07:52

Yes, one of my DDs scored very highly in SATS and then spent the whole of secondary school receiving reports stating she was achieving "below" track for target grades, which were all 9s based on SATS. It made her feel awful and as a perfectionist type personality was really difficult for her to come to terms with. She was still mostly achieving 8s but as tracks were 9s these great results were still considered "below" expectations!

Crazy system and really unhelpful IMO.

3WildOnes · 21/04/2023 07:56

LearningToLearn · 21/04/2023 07:51

How hard is it to achieve 100%?
Can any bright child achieve this?

Very few children will score 100% across all the tests. Only 13% of students achieved greater depth (a standardised score of 110/120 or above) across the board.

3WildOnes · 21/04/2023 07:59

Actually 11%

ImAGoodPerson · 21/04/2023 08:01

I think SATs are a slightly better indicator than the CAT tests but there is no way they should be predicting specific grades from either as learning just doesn't work in that way. The teachers are more likely to have a better idea by the end of Y7 after knowing how they work in each subject.

DS2 has various learning difficulties, autism and ADHD. He does way better in CAT tests than his academic ability, throughout secondary school he is underachieving on his report and ridiculously they put effort grades down that relate to grade achievement so he always gets a B or lower as he isn't achieving his grade.

DS1 is very academic, he doesn't do well on CAT tests (but well on SATs). He was always capable of getting a 7 in maths for instance, but his predicted grade was a 5. I wasn't happy with this either as what if he started achieving that level, would they have been OK with that? A for effort grades across the board though even though he didn't have to put in lots of effort to do well.

reluctantbrit · 21/04/2023 08:03

DD had an average SATS result and was predicted 7 for all subjects based on this. While some skills can be transferred over to other subjects, I am in doubt that PE, arts and music can be predicted.

She now is weeks away from her GCSEs and has a mix of 8-6 with a 5 in English Lit thrown in.

vestanesta · 21/04/2023 08:16

Mine didn't do SATS (Covid) but did do tests in yr7. One of mine did very well and has 8s across the board so we have the progress 8 issue where she's 'just below' (ie getting a very respectable 7) in French. Her sister did less well (6s) and has thrived in secondary so she's getting exceptionals as she's working at 7/8.

It's bollocks. Poor old dd2 with her just below feels she's failing.

Mushroomofficeglass · 21/04/2023 08:20

Dc school never predict grade 9 so they would be given grade 8s for everything. This is what's happened to dc2 and then is being told that she's working below expectation in art, drama and pe. I wish they'd give more realistic expectations most children (and adults) are not good at everything dd is very academic but is not artistic and has selective mutism so is not going to get a grade 8 in drama. She also has asd so sees everything very black and white and is a perfectionist at everything this has affected her confidence.
Dc3 has predicted grade 7s across the board and will probably get that or slightly higher in some and the gcse predictions don't seem to be affecting him.
Dc1 was predicted all 7s, because school I think school over helped with sats exams he was never going to get those grades, has asd, dyslexia, other learning difficulties and physical health issues. He did exceptionally well and got 4/5 but every report said he was not working to expectation and therefore it was demoralising.

I think schools need a better way of predicting and a more individualised grades for different subjects.

Original poster
Thingsthatgo · 21/04/2023 08:37

Thank you all for your experiences, it seems a very blunt tool. My DS is a perfectionist, so I think it will need very careful management. In all of his practice SATS he has been getting full marks since yr 5, but mostly because they've been doing little else except bloody SATS practice Sad
He may well do brilliantly in his GCSEs, but he could do without the pressure.

OP posts:
LearningToLearn · 21/04/2023 08:38

3WildOnes · 21/04/2023 07:56

Very few children will score 100% across all the tests. Only 13% of students achieved greater depth (a standardised score of 110/120 or above) across the board.

Show quote history

Thank you, Ds never did SATS due to covid. When you say across all the tests, how many tests and what kind of tests (content) do they have to sit? How long does each test last? Thank you.

3WildOnes · 21/04/2023 08:40

LearningToLearn · 21/04/2023 08:38

Thank you, Ds never did SATS due to covid. When you say across all the tests, how many tests and what kind of tests (content) do they have to sit? How long does each test last? Thank you.

Show quote history

Tests in maths, spag & reading comprehension. Writing is teacher assessed. You can google ks2 sats past papers to see what the content of each is.

TheaBrandt · 21/04/2023 08:43

One of mine the opposite no sats due to covid they did other exams at start of secondary and think Dd did quite badly in some subjects so we have spent years with teachers expressing amazement that she’s actually quite good at those subjects.

Dodgeitornot · 21/04/2023 08:49

I have no idea what's the answer to your question but completely anecdotally, I think it's really unrealistic on both the extreme ends.
Eg child does very well- 8s and 9s, child does very badly- 1s and 2s.
My DD did very badly, got as low as you can in her SATs. Her flight path is 1s and 2s. She's just got the results of her Y10 mocks and got a 6 in English and a couple of marks off a 4 in maths. 4, 3 in science. We're a year away so this to us is extremely impressive. However, she had awful support for SEN at her primary school.

Completely opposite story in secondary.
Her close friend is the opposite. She did extremely well in sats and has been told throughout secondary school that she's underachieving. I think it's a very silly thing to use to predict something so unpredictable in its nature. However, I do think it's probably more accurate when used on kids in the middle of the attainment curve.

fUNNYfACE36 · 21/04/2023 08:53

People are getting g mixed up with 'flight path' benchmark grades and predicted grades.
Predicted grades are based on lots of stuff.

ShinySherry · 21/04/2023 09:14

It sounds like a ridiculously blunt and unhelpful tool, especially considering the huge adolescent changes in children during this time that are highly likely to affect their grades (in terms of peer group,peer group acceptance, type of teaching, their interests, and a whole load of other variables).

cantkeepawayforever · 21/04/2023 09:25

It’s tricky for schools to manage.

They are measured - and put into league tables, judged for Ofsted, have published for all to see - by progress from SATs results. That’s not a school choice, it is a Government choice.

Many schools make that ‘expectation’ visible on reports to parents - the Government will penalise us if your child achieves less than x, and praise us if they achieve more than that - presented in the form of ‘targets’. Probably best read, therefore, as targets for the school.

Your child’s predicted grades should be independent of these, and properly informed by genuine class attainment. That said, there will definitely be cases where the predictions will be set with an eye on the target.

Some schools do re-test or use CATs for ‘reported targets’ for parents - however, these schools will still be judged by progress from SATs and so there will always be an eye on SATs results even if this is only behind the scenes.