Rape conviction rates are now 75%

[FloydPepper]

I spotted some figures on a Twitter post that I thought were interesting. Conviction rates for rape have been steadily increasing over the last 15 years and are now at 75%

I was very surprised by that as my understanding was that rates were very low. I’m pleased this is the case

anyone else really surprised to see this?

Remember that's the rates for those that actually make it to court. The key questions are how many make it to court and how many go unreported in the first place.

I suspect that 75% is 75% of a very small number of actual rapes.

That is presumably conviction rates for cases taken to court.

The very low rates are the percentage of cases reported to the police that lead to a conviction. From a quick google, in 2021, 1 in 100 cases led to a charge.

So - in total - of every 400 cases reported to the police, 3 will result in a conviction.

The CPS are supposed to prosecute if the probability of conviction is greater than 50%. A conviction rate of 75% is not good if it is a result of cases being cherry picked.

This is what I was wondering as well, sadly I think most reported rapes would be unlikely to reach a guilty verdict, so unlikely to be referred by the CPS.

Only 1.3% of rape cases result in anyone being charged. The rate of conviction in rape cases has actually fallen significantly. There's more on this BBC article from last year www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48095118

I don't see what we can do to improve this?
Due to the nature of the crime in itself, there will be no proof/witnesses in many cases as it takes place behind close doors

It's because the CPS only take on the cases that they think will convert into a conviction. Basically if you're in court and in front of a jury there is a very very high chance you're guilty

Isn't this exactly what the problem is with the courts and rape - that the CPS are ensuring that only the tiny number of cases with what they consider to be watertight evidence are actually going to court now. So of course the % of convictions will increase, but far fewer women and girls will have their cases heard in court. That's not justice.

71500 rapes reported in 2021, charges were bought in just 2600.

So no OP things are not improving, especially the time to go to trial, its almost 3 years i believe.

From this article it sounds a s though the length of the investigations is a major factor

• cases take, on average, 817 days to reach court, and 63% of cases are closed because the victim has given up on the process and withdrawn from it.

www.city.ac.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/04/new-scorecards-show-under-1-of-reported-rapes-lead-to-conviction-criminologist-explains-why-englands-justice-system-continues-to-fail

A convincing witness statement can also count as proof. Do you think these 75 percent convictions are all where there's a video tape or the perp admitted to it?

I agree. There’s also data on the number of cases which show a lot of volatility, but not a decline

It could be argued from the other side though - that it's not fair to force women and girls through the ordeal of a trial when there is no realistic prospect of conviction, just for show and to improve the statistics.

I'm not sure if you've misunderstood or misread my post.
I never said a witness statement doesn't count as proof. I simply said that for many there won't be proof/witnesses.I never said that was the case for all cases.

Or enough proof, perhaps I should say

I suspect this is the case. Low levels of reporting, low levels of charging. Good levels of conviction?

This is really sad that if it just took less time to go to court, it might be more successful

Yes I agree

You can thank govt cuts for that. Barristers have been crying out about the cuts to the court system for a long time. It's incredibly cruel to keep people in such limbo for such a long time.