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Flooding around the Thames London by 2030

49 replies

Ruizy · 09/11/2022 09:06

does anyone have any knowledge on this subject? Is the government working in plans to prevent this? 2030 doesn’t seem very far away now and climate experts are predicting massive areas will be susceptible to flooding around the Thames.

OP posts:
OP posts:
Oblomov22 · 09/11/2022 22:40

I've read your latest link OP. Whose point was it answering? Mine?

MargotMoon · 09/11/2022 22:55

Tube's gonna be fucked then isn't it?

Norugratsatall · 09/11/2022 22:59

Jesus! I live in an area that's predicted to be under water in 2030!

BobbyBobbyBobby · 09/11/2022 23:01

Who remembers this?

Rwandaiszero · 09/11/2022 23:19

finallydones · 09/11/2022 19:02

I don't get why there isn't more discussion about this. I can't imagine anyone wanting to buy a house in these areas now or in the near future, surely there value will fall greatly.

there is prime real estate in red on that link; I imagine it will be protected. Plus much of London is on clay so prone to subsidence.

Protected?? How! It's the sea

Clovacloud · 10/11/2022 07:55

When I was little I lived with my Grandparents in Fulham. This was all pre Thames Barrier and one of my first memories was having a lesson at school about what to do if you’re on the tube and it floods. No idea what the answer was, but it freaked me out that it’s still in my memory 45 years later!

According to my Nan Fulham near the river would flood and there was a really bad one in the 1920s (I think she was talking about 1928 ) and to never live in a basement flat near the river.

They are going to have to mitigate what’s coming and build Thames Barrier mark II which is going to have to be massive to keep the sea out. But it doesn’t seem that anyone is even considering it right now, which is beyond incompetent. The Dutch managed to keep the sea out, we need their expertise on this again. They fixed the Fens 400 years ago, pretty sure they can do London now.

DoYouKnowTheBishopOfNorwich · 10/11/2022 08:00

bluejelly · 09/11/2022 17:59

Climate change is the reason I would never buy a house near a river or on the coast. Not worth the risk - and things are going to get a lot worse

Yes, we have done the same thing. The thing is that even if we stop emitting greenhouse gasses right this second, the earth will continue to warm for a long time. We likely won't see any major improvement in our lifetime based on net zero emissions. So you're right to ask about mitigation.

I don't think 10 metres sea level rise by 2030 is likely though. Interested as to where the metro got that. I did study this years ago and I am leaning towards saying that's not right or likely

JesusInTheCabbageVan · 10/11/2022 08:43

The UK government isn't keen on proactive measures. They'll wait and see how far the flooding extends each year and then fling up a few extra defenses retrospectively.

Tootsey11 · 10/11/2022 08:47

David Attenborough stated that it would be 7 metres by 2050 if huge changes aren't made and definitely by 2100 all around the coasts world over including London. That's not regular flooding, that's permanently flooded, under water.

Windbeneathmybingowings · 10/11/2022 08:51

This is in no way scientific but I live on the Lee Valley and walk over the marsh daily.

This year the lakes were VERY low to the point where part of one lake had dried up. The legs of the piers are still visable and the water doesn’t seem anywhere close to what it was 2 years ago. Even after all this rain. So yes we are in an area susceptible to flooding but in reality I haven’t seen it.

DoYouKnowTheBishopOfNorwich · 10/11/2022 09:06

Tootsey11 · 10/11/2022 08:47

David Attenborough stated that it would be 7 metres by 2050 if huge changes aren't made and definitely by 2100 all around the coasts world over including London. That's not regular flooding, that's permanently flooded, under water.

Hmmmmm David Attenborough likes to scare people (for all the right reasons).

Flooding will definitely get worse in the next decade. It is already bad. Look at what happened in Pakistan over the summer! Also the Greek Islands and London has flooded recently too.

I hope to God one of those idiots who run our country will do something to mitigate against it.

But 7 metres by 2050...I'd want to double check that. Sounds way off to me. Also, "if we don't significantly reduce our emissions" maybe over eggs how big an impact that will make in the short term. Sea level rises are locked in now and will happen whatever we emit now. That isn't to say we should keep spewing out CO2 btw! Of course we need net zero ASAP. But my understanding is that we likely won't see a big change for decades.

Wheretheskyisblue · 10/11/2022 09:37

The link and map I posted earlier uses IPCC data which shows a sea level rise of between 61cm and 1. 1m by 2100 so no idea where 7mcomes from. Maybe someone put the decimel point in the wrong place.
www.newscientist.com/article/2217611-ipcc-report-sea-levels-could-be-a-metre-higher-by-2100/

Sep200024 · 10/11/2022 09:45

Such irresponsible reporting.

No wonder we get nutters causing mayhem with their protests.

DoYouKnowTheBishopOfNorwich · 10/11/2022 09:48

This is a good article which accounts for Arctic ice melting which would cause major sea rise, (but not for a very long time).

Nobody can predict for sure obviously, but I'm struggling to understand 10 metres by 2030 or even 7 metres by 2050 as a commonly held view in the scientific community.

This doesn't mean it's all fine and dandy, obviously! It's bad and most of Pakistan was underwater this summer. That clearly is a huge worry. Even if the UK is lucky and flooding is manageable, if another country is uninhabitable, we will see more and more refugees and need to find room for them.

Diyverymuchanewbie · 10/11/2022 09:51

@IbizaToTheNorfolkBroads im also interested to know if you think the current plans are adequate or if there is a sense in the department that there are major issues ahead that aren’t being prepared for adequately?

Dragonsgreen · 10/11/2022 09:52

Very worrying. I’m on the coast and near a river, most my town will be under water according to those projections.

Ruizy · 10/11/2022 10:36

Yes I agree that 2030 seems so soon it’s hard to believe that a rise of any considerable amount could happen by then. Only 7 years away.

OP posts:
DoYouKnowTheBishopOfNorwich · 10/11/2022 10:43

Ruizy · 10/11/2022 10:36

Yes I agree that 2030 seems so soon it’s hard to believe that a rise of any considerable amount could happen by then. Only 7 years away.

I'm not saying it's unlikely because it's scary and very soon. I'm saying it's unlikely that the sea around the coast of the UK will rise by the amounts that a couple of people have quoted on here because that is not at all what the general consensus seems to be if you read any of the scientific journals or articles. I've never seen "10 metres by 2030" or "7 metres by 2050" outside this thread.

The graphics used by the metro show areas at risk of regular flooding btw, not the areas at risk of being submerged underwater indefinitely.

Again, this isn't to say it's all fine - it isn't. We will likely see more flooding in low lying coastal or riverside areas. That is set in stone now and cannot be avoided by reducing emissions. So they absolutely do need to be investing in flood defenses as @IbizaToTheNorfolkBroads says they are. Hope it's enough 🤞

Tootsey11 · 10/11/2022 12:00

It was based on the rate the ice caps were melting, the fact the water underneath was warm. 150 million tonnes of ice mass per year is causing rising sea levels around the world. If things continue the way they are then we were looking at a rise of 7 metres by 2050.

amicissimma · 10/11/2022 12:12

There are a lot of things in place to protect London. Eg. The Thames Barrier, which is the authorities still project to be able to protect London until 2070.

There are flood plain areas designated if necessary, including 360 acres in Richmond, with a controlled channel, and more in Ham, including 178 acres of wetland nature reserve, between Teddington and Richmond Locks. The locks themselves manage the water flow. Water levels are monitored continuously.

IbizaToTheNorfolkBroads · 10/11/2022 20:26

The Dutch managed to keep the sea out, we need their expertise on this again. They fixed the Fens 400 years ago, pretty sure they can do London now.

Dutch and English (and US) flood defence engineers work very closely together in terms of sharing best practice, engineering innovation, peer reviews etc. I was at a seminar at the Thames Barrier last week;l and have previously been to the Netherlands. I've been involved in 2 specialist technical groups who meet twice a year or so (Covid allowing).

Whilst parts of East Anglia, Lincolnshire and S/E Yorkshire were reclaimed (or actually just drained and claimed) from the sea (intertidal marshland) by Dutch engineers 400-500 years ago, the physical and political landscapes are very different now (Charles 2nd ordered some of the original work to improve his hunting grounds).

Also, apart from those eastern areas, England I already mentioned, England and the Netherlands have quite different geographies/geological ground conditions. The main form of tidal defence in the Netherlands is to put a barrier around the coast. In England, our defences are a lot more inland. Our governments think differently too!

The Thames barrier is closed on rising tides above a certain height, to stop the tide reaching central London when the river is already full of rainwater. The barrier is actually a series of system of 6 or 7 barriers - the famous big one with the shiny silver hulls across the Thames upstream of Greenwich and smaller (but still significant!) barriers on the downstream tributaries, to manage the water that is pushed up the tribs when the main barrier is closed. Currently the upstream (central London to the top of the tidal limit at Teddington) and downstream (Thames estuary) have more than enough capacity. In 40 years of operation, I believe the Thames barrier has only come close to overtopping once, but the barrier is being operated more and more frequently; more frequently than ever anticipated.

There are also similar tidal surge barriers elsewhere in England, largely in the east.

Technically yes - there are things we can do. We are developing adaptive strategies and all construction works have to adaptable to climate change. As well as physical barriers, flood walls etc there is a massive amount of work looking at upland land management, nature based solutions, offline flood storage (but how do you influence owners of land that doesn't flood, to use/allow to be used for these purposes)? There are already extensive flood storage areas in many locations.

But we are constrained by policy, politics and associated funding. All our work has to be economically viable, and the economic tests are getting harder and harder to meet. It was hard enough to make schemes cost effective once we had to account for climate change, but with the massive increase in material costs in the last couple of years, it's almost impossible at times. Yes, there are projects that will never be delivered due to cost.

I think the big key to more effective flood risk management works will be rooted in funding. Like with all public spending though, increased investments in one area, reduces public money to spend in another.

I have referred a lot to England because the Environment Agency only operates in England, so this is what I know about!

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