School/teenage bulge years, and uni applications

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I can't figure this out by googling... trying to work out if my current Y13 (upper 6th) child would face more competition for uni place by applying now, or by doing a gap year?

I seem to remember they were in a bumper birth year. Or was that the year below?!

They are not likely to achieve super high grades so I want to support them and maximise their chances of getting on a reasonable (not overly ambitious) course.

We are in England, they are considering England or Scotland for uni.

Life is swamping me at the moment, any info appreciated. Tia.

I believe the demand is expected to continue to risk year on year until 2025.

So delaying a year wouldn't necessarily help, and definitely shouldn't be a deciding factor in a gap year. Plus you can apply and then defer, or reapply (although not all y is let you reapply)

Ive been wondering this as well ..in our area it was the start of the bulge ... so minimal impact i think but the next 3/4 got more and more dc school moved from 1.5 form to 3 forms ......and other schools also.. i think the peak is currrent yr8/9 .

There will be data somewhere and i guess each area slightly different?

Am currently hoping dc get an offer and defer somewhere if go for a gap year....

My DC school is advising U6 to consider a gap year next year because of this.

We were discussing this yesterday. Considering taking a gap year and building up relevant experience for personal statement if no offers to preferred universities this year.

Depends on the subject and target unis. Medicine, CS and Economics particularly oversubscribed.

Thank you. I heard unis 'had to give out more places than they wanted to' as a result of pandemic leading to higher grades. So its hard to know if this next intake will include lots of deferred older 'A students' taking places that would have gone to this year's 'B students' if the pandemic hadn't happened.

The idea of applying anyway and then if no offers, doing a gap year to get some relevant experience is a good one.

Defo not going for medicine etc. Main purpose of uni for this DC is to get more education, grow up a bit, and not narrow down career options like an apprenticeship would. And experience life away from home. Really trying to steer to an enjoyable, non stressful subject.

If you post on the Higher Education forum with a few more specifics, there are a lot of very knowledgeable posters. Including some who work in unis.

Thank you, will do

From the Economist - @landyland maybe show to your dc's school....