Has The Queen dying at Balmoral harmed the Scottish independence movement?

[Sharrowgirl]

I was just reading an article about how her death in Scotland has put the country at the front and centre of things, and shown that many Scottish are supportive of the monarchy, judging by the turnout. And equally, that Scotland is important to the monarchy. And that this might remind some people that maybe they want to remain part of the Union after all?

Though it’s not entirely clear whether an independent Scotland would retain the monarchy as head of state, so perhaps it’s not relevant?

It's in no way a 'sidestep', it's a statement of fact. If you don't want a referendum, ensure you elect parties who are opposed to one. So far that's proving an impossibility for the supposed 'majority opposed to Indi ref2' in Scotland that MN keeps referring to.

I don't think anyone knows where any polling is headed, on voting intention, support for the monarchy or independence. It is very early days and events have to unfold. This period before the funeral is very artificial in terms of polling.

like it or not, Scotland is treated like a park. Nearly every bit of infrastructure build north of Balfron has been a battle. It’s hardly some kind of nationalist myth. You only need to look at who owned the land to see why this is the case. There are plenty of historians that have discussed this. I’m not sure why you think there’s some kind of nationalist conspiracy.

I'm Scottish (and live in Scotland) and I completely agree with this. I don't think King Charles III will be anywhere near as popular as Queen Elizabeth II.

This.

I say exactly the same thing at any other time.

We know from precedent that stated opinions prior to the run up to an actual Scots Indi Ref being set in law, and the campaign itself, are neither particularly reflective of either how polling goes right at the death, nor how the referendum itself turns out.

IIRC 'yes' was polling at something like 26% when the SNP first formed a government, then 35% at the point when the Edinburgh Agreement took place, then finally landed at 51% in favour a few days before the vote itself. As we know the actual final total who voted for was 45%, but 53% if you only include Scots. I think it's a waste of time to attempt to conclude anything concrete from polling when there is no actual Referendum on the cards, or before the terms and question itself have been set for a definite Referendum on a specific date. So much can happen between now and then that changes polling, as we saw with 2014

All we can say is that right now the polls indicate a split in opinions. It tends to vary a few percentage points here and there from month to month and poll to poll, but I don't think you can safely predict how anything would pan out in the event of an actual referendum on the back of polls being conducted right now.