What do you think this winter will really be like?

[MumbleCrumbs]

I've done a bit too much doom scrolling tonight. Our landlord has just put our rent up by 120 pounds due to inflation and our fixed energy bill ends this month. I am starting to grow really concerned on how we are going to manage, as well as society as a whole. So many people are going to be in so much trouble I don't understand why there seems to be no plan!

What do you think this winter will really be like? The catastrophic rolling blackout, schools with 3 day weeks scenario, or do you think the government will do something to fix it. Somewhere in the middle of the two? Societal unrest?

I've never felt so uneasy living in this country before.

This winter will make Covid look like a walk in the park!!

keep our fingers crossed for a mild winter, because if we get a cold one or a beast from the east we are F**d !!

Exactly. I'm reading this and sniggering at people telling other to educate themselves when they can't get simple historical dates right.

Tbf you'd have to be quite elderly to remember the mid 60's with much clarity

That must be me. My memories of the mid sixties are pretty clear. I’m 61.

@FuckeryOmbudsman - that's not right. I went to secondary school in 1973 & I'm 60. Retirement age is 67 so I could not have been in secondary school in the mid 60s and be below retirement age.

I remember having candles in our ink wells at primary school. That would have been winter 1970-71.

It was always unsustainable which is why so many providers went bust.

I'm worrying about redundancy and I work in a job I thought that was pretty secure- but now everyone is at risk.

Like covid did for working from home/hybrid working, this is accelerating a process we were already on the path to, just at a much, much quicker rate (and climate wise that's not all bad)

This is an interesting point Calm, I saw a sound Twitter thread from a scientist who was suggesting the best thing the government could do was admit the heart of the problem is that there isn't enough gas anymore and we have to cut our cloth accordingly. Wish I could remember who it was. But reframing things that way could be more useful than right now.

@PersonaNonGarter then shops and factors should turn their lights off when closed, manufacturers should turn their plant off when not operating. Retail doesn't need heating super hot but doors open. Businesses are very wasteful and could cut their bills and reduce usage very easily...

I’m watching Sunday now on BBC One to see what Sunak and Truss are going to say

Can someone please explain why there might be black outs?

I stopped reading the tabloids at the start of the pandemic to protect my mental health - I really need to start reading a decent newspaper again because I feel quite detached from it all.

Please help me understand why schools would have to close and there will be black outs?

I am worried about the upcoming winter - more for other people than our family home. We are certainly not rich but have good salaries and will be able to afford the increases - though will definitely need to cut back on other things. I know how fortunate we are in to be in this position. Yes it’s still awful but not as awful as not being able to heat our home or buy food. We installed a wood burning stove a couple of years ago and I’m so glad we did.

Anyone who lived through the coal mine closures of the 80s - that’s what it’s going to be like, but for the whole country. Cold because we can’t afford heating, hungry because we can’t afford food, widespread job losses and unemployment including the closure of small businesses where customers can’t afford to shop any more. No treats or days out because we can barely even afford essentials. Crime rate will probably go up because people are desperate.

Personally I’ll survive by cutting out all non essentials, which will be miserable - a return to the poverty of my childhood, despite the fact that we have a £60k income. Never thought I’d end up back there, especially when we’re a family with two incomes.

I'm worrying about redundancy and I work in a job I thought that was pretty secure- but now everyone is at risk.

yes i'm scared about this

Please help me understand why schools would have to close and there will be black outs?
Schools will close because they can’t afford to pay their bills for electric and heating. Blackouts because there isn’t enough energy available to meet everyone’s needs, so the government has to ration supply.

I’m not expecting any help. It’s a global problem, it’s not within the government’s power to fix it. We are fucked and so is our kids’ future.

Thank you - I, possibly naively, assumed that the government would have to cover the costs for schools? If children are at home then parents are at home, and we all know that this didn’t work during the lock downs.

Are all countries facing the same?

schools also have to fund the pay increases for staff from their own budgets & certainly in some part of London pupil numbers are reduced which impacts gov funding. Education quality will definitely suffer b

😂😂😂

germany at least has stocks of gas
we dont have the space apparently

ONS data shows there 50k excess deaths in winter 2017/2018
Mostly caused by chest infections and other illnesses exacerbated by cold weather.

Covid caused many of the EWD in the winters of 2020 and 2021.

Do not be surprised that come spring, there has been 60k excess deaths caused in part by people lacking the funds to keep themselves warm and we'll fed.
That's before Covid, which is still a thing, is counted.

also don't be surprised is homelessness skyrockets as courts catch up with evictions, mortgage interest rates rise and more and more landlords raise rent beyond their tenants affordability.
People will be going to their councils demanding housing, but there will be none for them, kids taken into foster care, adult.mapes told to live rough, adult females housed in cramped emergency hostels. Etc.

Foodbanks will also begin to crumble as people can't afford to donate anymore due to cost of food. Someone's who spent £80 on their food and £10 on foodbank food to donate will see that increase beyond affordability.
This, on turn, will see shoplifting of essentials rise exponentially. Steal food or see your kids starve... Which is it?

Sound alike I'm doom mongering, it's not doom mongering.. it's already happening.

The government will step in, but they won't do enough because if they did do enough, certain members of society and Mumsnet would bitch and moan that the poor, disabled and sick are getting enough money to not freeze or starve to death... whilst they've had to alter their second holiday plans. They'll then expect sympathy that their 90k a year salary isnt stretching enough and question why they don't get help like the unemployed on £4k a year do.

You are waaaay overthinking this. To a daft extent.

The energy crisis is a result of the post-pandemic economic restart and war in Ukraine. It is also to some extent a result of governments being forced to move to Net Zero before their infrastructure was ready. Plus, lots of people being (wrongly) opposed to nuclear.

Quite Elderly!! You would now be mid 60's in age NOT ELDERLY!

Oh well. If lying, couldn't give a shit Boris said it, it must be true!

I can remember the 1970's electricity cuts. They happened 3 times a week for about 4-5 hours at a time. We were lucky as had a gas hob. My Mum made huge pots of stew with dumplings and my 2 Aunties who had all electricity came around for dinner with their DH's. We had candles going. As a child I enjoyed having my Aunties and Uncles over. I am sure my parents hated it. Also remember bin strike went on for almost 3 months. Stinking black sacks of rubbish in streets.Everthing was double bagged but cats stick scratched it open, encouraging rats. That was disgusting.

@anotherbrewplease to have had that rise you've come off a fixed tariff.

You seem oblivious to the fact that many of us have never had access to those.

If you don't have dual fuel (impossible in areas without gas) or are on pre payment then they were not an option.

We have gone from a direct debit of £97 to £135 but I am £600 in credit on that. Yes of course it's gone up but the huge percent rise is because you were getting a very good deal.

As a result I've been very aware of useage and things like no heating until October and off again on April 1 is how I've always lived. And I'm in North Scotland so not exactly warm outside!

Not needing to worry about useage is a privileged position and it's not coming back