Help me work out what to do (energy)

[loveisagirlnameddaisy]

So I'm with Octopus, current variable tariff is:
Electricity: 29.23 unit rate / 37.65 standing charge
Gas: 7.34 unit rate / 27.22 standing charge

They've offered me a fixed 12 month tariff at:
Electricity: 41.44 unit rate / no change in standing charge
Gas: 11.17 unit rate / no change in standing charge

Martin Lewis is saying to consider fixing if 40/45% increase on current rates which these are on the high side of. Just not sure what to do. I don't want to be paying higher now (ahead of the estimated 51% Oct increase if I don't have to) and it looks like the price cap next spring will be much smaller.

Brain is melting! Help!

What are the exit fees?

That does seem like a pretty good fixed rate in these times though

Good point, can't see on the email they've sent me so I've gone back to ask them.

They do say at the bottom of the email that if I switch they'll put my DD up to £453 per month (currently paying £335) which makes me gulp slightly.

Crikey that is a lot OP?

How much are you actually using per month?

Have you submitted regular meter readings?

We live in 4 bed with 2 adults and a toddler. Both home all day everyday really as my partner works from home. We are also on the variable. We are using on average £2.90 a day for electric and £1 for gas a day. Overall around £100-£110 per month. We are over paying at £170 to save some for winter and the next increase.

If there are no exit fees, I think I'd fix those. You can come out in October if the price cap doest go up as much as predicted. If there are exit fees, and I don't the octopus have on any product, you might want to think a bit harder, because it's probably close.
I'd also fix if the possibility of the direct debit going even higher (that's a massive amount - we are on a fix from last summer, and I'm panicking a bit!) would case massive issues for you.

I'm in the same situation except that my gas is fixed until November.
I was quoted higher standing charges than you for the flexible tariff though.

I also don't trust their direct debit estimates, I think they are unnecessarily high.

We're in a five-bed, three storey with underfloor heating (wet system so gas fed) downstairs. Apparently we use a lot of electricity but my husband does boil the kettle about 100 times a day!

I have to say that we're not regularly in a lot of credit so I think their DD estimate is about right for us. We go into credit in summer as most people probably do and then use it all in winter.

That's probably good advice. But if the rates they've given me are only a few % lower than the expected price cap rise of 51%, what's the point fixing now?

By my calculations the electricity is around 41% higher and the gas is 52% higher.

Octopus don't tend to have exit fees (that's who I'm also with)

I'm not fixing right now as I'd pay the higher rate right now and I'm ok paying what I do now.

Is that the Loyal Octopus rate?
I'm offered 2 rates : Octopus 12 month and Loyal Octopus 12 month (Loyal slightly cheaper but not by much)

I dont like the look of either of them tbh

It's the Loyal Octopus.

It just doesn't feel like enough of a good deal to be fixed now.

The forecaster that Martin Lewis uses, Cornwall insights, is just one of many. Others are predicting higher rates still. You'll be paying more than you need to if you opt to fix now but usage is typically a lot lower right now. I don't think it would be the worst idea in the world to fix at those dates now so long as the exit aren't prohibitive.

Exit fees

That's true - usage is low now so sensible to fix. Aaarghgh, what to do...