Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

I* thought

Interesting interview, to me especially about the fallout for the Rusian economy. It's his vision though, he doesn;t quite understand Putin's attitude to Ukraine (when he says it's stupid not to just obliterate it if you are the dictator), he says ther are signs of indecisiveness from Putin and it's 'stupid'. Well its exactly because Putin has never been cynical about Ukraine. #Just' Dinbass maybe, but he had his own fantasy vision about restoring the manufacture there to the former Soviet glory (i.e. he was bitterly comlaining how the great Antonov aviation factory has not produced anything since the 'Nazi regime' came to power.
He mentioned the heroic fighting against Germans in Kyiv and Minsk (alongside Russia's cities) during the Victory parade just to emphasise he values those lands and history etc, the problem is he sees them as 'his' - well, Russia's. Kyiv especially, aka 'the cradle of Russian cities' in the Soviet era school manuals. Putin is cynical about many things but he's got his values even though it's all got screwed up and not going his way and moreover he has to damage these literally, have you noticed he's not a happy man currently?

*'just' Donbas

Meant to add that Antonov aviation plant is in the Kyiv region.

It is indeed, their main testing base is at Hostomel airport which some will remember was the site of very fierce fighting right at the start of the war.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Antonov_Airport

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces reportedly made incremental advances north of Slovyansk but likely have not yet been able to take control of the road into Slovyansk.

Russian forces are attempting to advance towards Lysychansk from the south and west in order to avoid having to fight across the Siverskyi Donets River from Severodonetsk but are having limited successes so far.

Russian troops made incremental gains north of Avdiivka.

Russian troops reportedly destroyed Ukrainian-built bridges over the Inhulets River near Davydiv Brid in response to Ukrainian counteroffensive pressure.

Notable sentances from the whole thing:

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast has gotten the attention of Russian forces in the area, and the Russians are scrambling to secure the vital ground line of communication (GLOC) the Ukrainians have threatened.}

Russian milbloggers are expressing growing alarm about the threat of Ukrainian counteroffensives in the areas Russian forces have deprioritized while concentrating on Severodonetsk.....Russian milbloggers are effectively criticizing the Russian military command for endangering Russian territorial gains across other axes by prioritizing the Donbas offensive operation so heavily.

Russian authorities are likely anticipating Ukrainian partisan pressure in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continue to undermine the economic viability of areas they are attempting to capture...... While the [destroyed] Azot plant in Severodonetsk was less productive on whole than Azovstal, its destruction is part of the systemic failure of Russian forces to take effective control of the economic and industrial capabilities of occupied territory. Russian forces will likely continue to destroy productive infrastructure and continually undermine the economic benefits they could have hoped to gain from occupied territories.

[I really am starting to think the ISW is slightly biased in its analyses in favour of Ukrainian gains, which is understandable but also something of a pity. Gaining the Donbas, which the Rus seem to be slowly managing really isnt a small deal. I hope I'm wrong. ]

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From Kyiv Independent Telegram channel

⚡️ Sky News: General confirms US conducts offensive hacking operation in support of Ukraine.

The Kyiv Independent, [02/06/2022 06:49]
⚡️ Institute for the Study of War: Russian forces try to advance on Lysychansk to avoid crossing Siversky Donets River. According to the U.S. think tank, Russian forces have made “incremental advances” north of Sloviansk and Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, with “limited success.”

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From UkraineNOW Telegram channel

⚡️The UK will send Ukraine M270 multiple-launch rocket systems
🇮🇹Italy is ready to help with demining of the Black Sea for grain exports from Ukraine.

⚡️Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba said that the sixth package of European Union sanctions against Russia has an exception for some countries, which is a dangerous precedent.

⚡️Britain asks US permission to send US multiple rocket launchers to Ukraine — Politico. Johnson spoke to Biden about the transfer of M270 MLRSs, made in the United States. The United States must formally approve the move because of export regulations, although the Biden administration will almost certainly give the green light. The M270 system can hit targets at a range of about 80 kilometers.

[ re this, Switzerland refused permission for Germany to send some arms yesterday. Given Germany's awful procrastination I'm wondering if Germany promised those particular munitions -knowing- they wouldn't get permission, so they can seem to be doing something but when they actually don't it's ' not my fault guv].

The Russians are dropping improvised explosive devices from drones in Sumy region.
💬 "Probable blast radius is 30-50 metres", - the Head of the region.

🏳️‍🌈 Since 2016, the number of those who have a positive attitude towards the LGBT community in Ukraine has quadrupled.

⚡️Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed solidarity for Ukraine in what she described as a "barbaric war" with Russia at an event on Wednesday, after months of silence prompted criticism of her own policy towards Moscow. [better late than never but fuck me Merkel, 98 days ago was the right time to say that]

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Ukraine NOW
@UkraineNowMedia
·
4m
⚡️General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Russians have a shortage of drones, an UAVs of Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation are already involved.

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❗️CNN: Villagers north of Kyiv say they're still finding bodies more than a month after Russian troops left. "Sometimes, I have nightmares and can't sleep at night," village resident Serhiy Yudenko told CNN's Matthew Chance. "And I pray they won't ever come back." Yudenko said he was shot by Russian troops and left for dead. He now has scars from the bullets but says the emotional scars run deeper.

Yevhen Yenin, Ukraine's deputy interior minister, said he thinks of the families every time they find a new body. "You cannot imagine the eyes of mothers whose children they lost. You cannot imagine the eyes of relatives whose beloved have been captured or have been killed on the front line," Yenin said, standing next to a grave.

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The Moscow Times

2 hours ago Fierce street fighting and counterattacks are occuring in eastern Ukraine's Severodonetsk, a key urban hub on Russia's path to capture the Luhansk region, the local governor said late Wednesday.

"The entire free Luhansk region is under fire," its governor Sergiy Gaiday said in a video, adding that humanitarian deliveries and civilian evacuations are still ongoing.

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The Moscow Times
@MoscowTimes
·
13h
Russian state news reporter Gleb Erve did not deny having fascist-linked tattoos, but said he left the far-right three years ago.

[dear me, Russian Nazi journalist reporting on an invasive war of a sovereign nation .. claiming they are Nazis]

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Ukranian-currency billionaire has set up his own battalion

www.npr.org/2022/05/31/1102097092/ukraine-kharkiv-billionaire-battalion-vsevolod-kozhemyako?t=1654152122534

*Scrollingleaves, Owlsdance, I would love to hear key thoughts from the video. I managed about 5 mins but found it quite hardgoing as a non-Russian speaker. I thought the bouncy presenter lost his bounce quite early on in the interview. His eyes seemed to drift at times. He was probably hoping for something more juicy.

blueshoes I do not speak Russian either but tried to follow the English subtitles. I could not always tell when he was being ironic but for example one section was I gather criticising Putin for making a mess, given his aims, and what he himself would done in the role of ‘evil dictator’.

I forgot to say that he thinks sanctions won’t make much difference and will take to long to have an impact. He sees the West as wishy-washy. He also said they should have begun at least eight years ago.

Yes, he has criticised the West about lack of action back in 2014, even in 2008 in Georgian conflict. He said that back then Europe should have started weaning itself off Russian energy, and investing into nuclear energy, but instead they've been doing the opposite. Now it will take a good part of 2 years. This is one of the most effective sanctions we could do. Another one is switching Russian banks from SWIFT.

He talked about how Putin is seen as weak and indecisive, and he thought within the next 6-18 months there will be a violent take over of government power by military. So if you've read any of Galeev's posts, it looks like Potapenko was leaning towards the North Korea scenario.

He also talked about the ineffectiveness of sanctions for regular Russian people, especially those in most impoverished regions. Basically, they live in deep shit, so nothing is going to change for them, as long as there is booze in corner shop, and TV telling them how great their country is.

He also talked about how sanctions mostly affected middle class, who are usually better educated and share the European values and are against the war, so he thought it wasn't fair.

There was a lot of joking about what he would do if he was the perfect evil dictator, and they Putin's move on 24/02 was the dumbest move he could have done.

I thought it was an interesting perspective.

I found it really interesting too. Do wish I could pick up on the humour!

Ukranian-currency billionaire has set up his own battalion
www.npr.org/2022/05/31/1102097092/ukraine-kharkiv-billionaire-battalion-vsevolod-kozhemyako?t=1654152122534

This is what sets the Ukrainian people apart from the Russian criminal oligarch factions, whom Putin heads up. More stolen money was spent on luxury yachts over the last 20 years than on the Russian Northern Fleet, and some more. A country where nobody respects the other persons property can never be truly powerful.

Seems to me that Russia really is culturally an empire complete with nobility. Not a hereditory sort of emperorship but consistently one powerful ruler who values the land but not the people and a constellation of powerful people around him, who also don't value the people one shred. It's all about the land and the power isn't it?

I can't help feeling that the MUST WIN trait has to be coupled with something of fear in it. If you must win at any cost including discarding truthfulness, keeping to promises and general honesty then you have to be permanently afraid of the enemies you've made on the way up. I wonder if Russia is governed by fear as much as the toxic-masculine principle of must-win. Would explain the excessive hawkishness; they have to have an external enemy.

I don't think it's possible to build a dictatorship without fear and repression of human rights and freedoms.

Singapore?

@Ijsbear You have to have a 'them' to have an 'us' mentality?

That video was a real eye opener. When I first saw the images of Russian towns I initially thought I'd misunderstood and I was looking at pictures of war torn Ukraine. It reminded me of those reports of Russian invaders saying to Ukrainian civilians "we live in shit so you will live in shit." It's like a toddler who can't bear that their sibling has the toy. Pure jealousy and deep resentment.

It sounds like Putin would be child's play compared to those who would overthrow him. Ending the war decisively with Putin still alive and in power sounds like the best option? Better the devil you know?

Thank you @OwlsDance. I found the video you linked to fascinating and also wish I could speak Russian to understand it fully. Thank you for your explanation. I have also found Kamil Galeev’s threads so interesting and informative; I realise how incredibly limited my assumption of who and what ‘Russia’ has been and it’s both fascinating and terrifying to begin to see how very different culturally it is.

Also...I have friends that left Kherson last week and they are travelling through Russia, they are currently in Moscow. Comms is limited but one thing they have said is that they are shocked by the difference in the way of life between Russia and Ukraine. And this guy has family in Moscow. He said he had no idea how bad things were.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 11:17
@Ijsbear You have to have a 'them' to have an 'us' mentality?

That video was a real eye opener. When I first saw the images of Russian towns I initially thought I'd misunderstood and I was looking at pictures of war torn Ukraine. It reminded me of those reports of Russian invaders saying to Ukrainian civilians "we live in shit so you will live in shit." It's like a toddler who can't bear that their sibling has the toy. Pure jealousy and deep resentment.

It sounds like Putin would be child's play compared to those who would overthrow him. Ending the war decisively with Putin still alive and in power sounds like the best option? Better the devil you know?

After that video from OwlsDance, I thought that too about what could come next being worse. He mentioned a replacement junta, and also said ‘the opposition’ wouldn’t stand a chance. So it seems there is no hope in that alternative.

@cloudberry · Today 11:18
Thank you @OwlsDance. I found the video you linked to fascinating and also wish I could speak Russian to understand it fully. Thank you for your explanation. I have also found Kamil Galeev’s threads so interesting and informative; I realise how incredibly limited my assumption of who and what ‘Russia’ has been and it’s both fascinating and terrifying to begin to see how very different culturally it is.

I agree so much with what you say: I too now realise how much I had assumed about Russia bore little comparison with reality. Shameful ignorance and lack of enquiry on my part. I am grateful to the people on this thread shedding light on so many things, including military matters.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 11:26
Also...I have friends that left Kherson last week and they are travelling through Russia, they are currently in Moscow. Comms is limited but one thing they have said is that they are shocked by the difference in the way of life between Russia and Ukraine. And this guy has family in Moscow. He said he had no idea how bad things were.

Did you mean his family in Moscow had no idea how bad things were in UKraine?

Or did you mean that your friend had had no idea of how relatively badly people live in Moscow compared to people living in UKraine?

@OwlsDance thank you for your explanation about the video especially when you are on holiday.

@Ijsbear Thank you for all your summary.
I wonder if the Russians will make it over that river.

owlsdance and scrollingleaves, really appreciate the insights on the video. Have to go off now but will come back to read in more detail.

PS does anyone else's mn keep freezing on them? I am working off a laptop (luddite).

@blueshoes it keeps taking me back as if I've bookmarked a post even though I didn't and moved on. Really annoying.

@OwlsDance · Today 12:23
@blueshoes it keeps taking me back as if I've bookmarked a post even though I didn't and moved on. Really annoying.

I have had something similar in the past. The page would keep going back to a page from several days before, though at least it was one from the same thread. That happened the day the MN system changed. Once that particular thread ended, and there was was a new one, it seemed to be ok mostly.

Ending the war decisively with Putin still alive and in power sounds like the best option? Better the devil you know?

I think we're on a rollercoaster and whether Putin is in power or not won't make a lot of difference. But as it is, I think if he is deposed/dies now the Hawks will get in. The longer he lives as it is, the more hawkish, isolated and unpleasant the Russian govt will become. But there is always the chance that something unexpected will happen and things may turn around, whereas if he dies now I'm less hopeful.

You have to have a 'them' to have an 'us' mentality? noooooo .... thoughtfully

I've no doubt that the average Russian is motivated by fundamentally the same things we are - stability, love for family, need for enough money, need to have moments of enjoyment.

I think that the culture is different though. That can form people's outlook. Theirs does have a more MUST Win culture. That makes it rather different to the West's.

But thinking it through that doesn't mean we have to go us-and-them. It does mean that we have to extend our understanding and realise that our cooperative-talking-finding-common-ground-together approach wont much work with Russia. I think with Russia that the West needs to understand that they must respond to Russian infringements and not let them get away with but in a detached and considered way. Not us-and-them, tit for tat way. More like, um, actually, keeping calm and firm but letting them know that going over the boundaries is not acceptable. We do need to keep militarily strong and to keep in mind that Russia will keep trying to undermine the West. It happened all during the Soviet Union, there was a brief period of it not happening and under Putin it's been many more years of subtle attacks.

I think we also have to define what we are geographically willing to stand for. I still don't think we could intervene in Chechnya, just as we should never have intervened in Afghanistan (in my view). I don't think we could intervene in Syria either; that was for other ME countries to do, if they wanted to. But we can and should intervene in the old Soviet countries that wish themselves to move more to the West, and in Australasia and other countries who have actively chosen to become part of the West (though Taiwan really does worry me).

I do think that after Russia's previous aggression we should never relax unless their culture has fundamentally shifted, which seems unlikely but who knows, might happen in the future.

The politicians won't keep awake though. Time and trade will move on and we will become sleepy again and mistake a hawk's brown feathers for a dove's grey ones. But eh, perhaps some people will be more careful and we'll listen more to the Eastern European countries who were warning us for a long time. Germany's woeful performance here might mean that the E European countries are listened to more, who knows.

The more I read about geopolitics the more it becomes clear that we need to think beyond Russia too and take seriously their relationship with China etc (inc BRIC). I don't believe that Russia's defeat/humiliation (please God let it happen!) is a clearcut end or solution. There's crocodiles both ways and there's a larger shift happening that we'll need to keep tight handles on for years. One thing is horribly clear: complacency is not an option, we have been too complacent about threat. All of the talk of increased defence spending and new Nordic agreements etc can be scary but I'm trying to think of this positively. Scales falling from eyes etc, hopefully not too late. I worry about the russia-China relationship, particularly later down the line as sino-American relations become even more delicate than they already are

Really?

If you are a citizen you have rights. If you are a migrant labourer you have few. Its a hotspot for human trafficking as a result.

They literally locked up all the migrants for months during covid. Singapore citizens didn't get covid. The migrant workers were the ones who got hammered by it instead, especially because of their living conditions.

Please don't hold up Singapore as an example of good human rights. Its bullshit.

Interesting discussion on the Russian outlook v the Western one. I am now wondering how China manages with its northern neighbour - or perhaps they have the boundaries down firmly in a way the West does not?

This restores my faith a bit, even if it is for PR purposes

Remember the Lithuanian fundraising

twitter.com/baykartech/status/1532318260833705984?s=21&t=CsrjgjwVh_aMVxjKyIe60w