Ukraine Invasion: Part 23

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, thanks for the company

He basically wants to exhaust the west with constant oscillating fear. Until we start to concede little by little.

It's a bargaining tactic when you've got nothing to bargain with.

well it sure is exhausting me. Like geopolitical whiplash.

It's typical tactics in an abusive relationship. Just replace people with countries. Pretty obvious who's the abuser is.

Keep in mind how Trump used to say something, then reverse and deny he ever said x? In doing so he played to one audience then played to another depending on the message he wanted to get across.

Putin and Lavrov do similar.

Russian Bridges Go Boom is happy on twitter tonight.

A bridge in Krasnodar Region (Russia) collapsed in solidarity with the earlier blown up bridge in Kherson region (Ukraine).

Lawrence Freedman's summary of Lavrov:

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, best understood as an alternating current of threats and reassurances, switched on and off by Putin

Againn I don't think we dare to forget that Putin is a trained manipulator and Lavrov his mouthpiece.

Thoughts on Ian Bremmer's 'quick take' here @RedToothBrush? I'm surprised with the predictive line he took here and found it quite alarmist. But what I've read of his analysis prior seemed quite measured. What it does chime with is a trend I've noticed today (though it might just be me) with analysts unhappy about the tougher rhetoric coming out of the US and the UK in particular, and a sense that we are now being too escalatory with our language (particularly about wanting to see a weakened and even demilitarised Russia). Also that we need to clearly demarcate our roles as nato members vis a vis ukraine more carefully and avoid the proxy war language.

twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1520108720113524738?s=21&t=9G4TtMMEdUnz6VadK23wpQ

Actions speak louder than any words, so I think we have to dismiss anything that comes out of their lying mouths. There comes a point where even threats are easy to ignore because we're hearing them repeated so many times. You get used to it after a while.

Trigger warning

I urge you to watch this interview. 10 minutes. I get John Kirby, because he has seen images similar to what I have seen.

There are thousands of Russian mothers and fathers who have yet to be told their sons have died. About 6,000 bodies unclaimed and hundreds still lying where they died. At every sunset there is less to bury because a little bit more of them is gnawed away each day. This is how Russia leaves its soldiers. Now can we imagine how it treats ordinary Ukrainian people who it regards as its enemies? Genocide is a word that is like a whisper getting louder this week.

People do horrible things to each other. They will continue to for some time yet. If genocide is a concept, we relate to it personally through the girl in the red coat in Schindlers' List. What Hitler did to the Jewish people in Europe, Putin is recreating today. Just as he did in Chechnya and Syria. But we were morally bankrupt in not standing up to that.

What matters is whose side you are on today and whether you have the power to stay the course. These things really does matter - it is your life.

If you wake up tomorrow in Arkansaw, Yorkshire or the Peloponnese, then thank God you are on the right side geographically and politically. And thank God for the UA and the Ukranian leadership who are pioneering the battles today that we will have to send our sons and daughters to fight tomorrow. You are so brave.

Me too. It's annoying that although I know the tactic, it still works on me.

Just gotta hope it doesn't work on the less vocal world leaders (FR, DD, IT, ES).

DE - Germany. Not DD, my five year old (she'd give him whatever for a Fruitshoot).

My DD asked today if I could phone Putin and just ask him to stop being mean. Could have wept for her innocence 😭

The problem with the constant threats is when it backfires. He has unified NATO, Right now, Putin can stand up and announce all-out war on the 9th of May, mobilizing the army. And the rest of the world will shrug and say "we got the memo months ago".

Lavrov is an odd guy among odd guys. He is not connected with the military apparatus, operating in a very undiplomatic diplomatic sphere. His father was Armenian. He owes his position to Putin and is loyal, but they are not very close. I sense that he is allowed to do what he does on diplomatic stages because he can be trusted to not stray from what the leader wants.

He has written about Russian history and Russia's identity and role. It is fairly garbled. For example from 2016:

www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-world-according-to-sergei-lavrov-and-putin/

He often contradicts himself and will backtrack without referring to his previous position.

Lavrov favours 'we' over 'I'.

I have read that he isn't particularly likeable. His second family has been in the news recently. At 72 his game may well have been to continue to serve as long as he could and then retire to live on his accumulated wealth. However there is a slide towards a gerontocracy in the current Russian elite that echoes later Soviet times. Unless they fall from grace, will they step down voluntarily?

I can't imagine anyone is close to Putin?

Unfortunately I'm not able to watch it atm (currently in a field in middle of nowhere with limited Internet).

I think it would be prudent to be mindful of language regardless of the situation tbh. Its unhelpful.

Everyone knows the situation, so why make it into a situation which makes internal calls to escalate harder to resist?

It helps no one.

Jack Detsch AT jackdetsch
U.S. believe it's NOT clear that Putin is getting accurate information on the war in Ukraine from advisors in the Kremlin: Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby

"He's messaging that he is going to achieve military outcomes in the Donbas and the south," Kirby said.

Is Macron still ringing him every 5 mins to check he's ok?

This is different to ehat I sae earlier ehich downplayed the risk of nukes

Jack Detsch AT jackdetsch
.

Lavrov is definitely an interesting character. He very much strikes me as a follower rather than a leader. He also strikes me as very much taken by Putin's worldview/narrative but he's much less diplomatic and quite blunt. He's really an odd one.

Very good article for people who are anxious. Measured, analytical and balanced. Reassuring, really.

www.economist.com/briefing/how-deep-does-the-rot-in-the-russian-army-go/21808989

Visegrad24 AT Visegrad24
Reports coming in about a shootout between Russian forces in Kiselivka, in the Kherson region.

50 Buryats started shooting against 50 Chechens after the Chechens stole goods that the Buryats had looted from Ukrainian homes.

Killed & injured on both sides before FSB intervened.

Now the original source of this seems to be Ukraine. There was a similar story a couple of weeks back. Its not clear if its the same incident or a different one.

https://gur.gov.ua/content/perestrilka-buriativ-z-chechentsiamy-okupanty-ne-mozhut-podilyty-zdobych-ta-ne-bazhaiut-ity-v-nastup.html

The one a couple weeks ago was reported as being Russian soldiers against Donetsk separatists, as far as I read. So this may be a different incident.

Great army eh?

Close to Putin, with Hillsmakeyoustrongs statement acting to qualify this:

Patrushev is possibly the main man.

Naryshkin - but he was humiliated in public discussion.

Shoigu - but tarred with failure.

Once Medvedev, but has drifted from being the close alternative to a position further away.

Possibly Kabaeva, but there's too much rumour to tell what the relationship is like at the moment. She seems to have been wearing a wedding ring.

Patrushev is called a hawk's hawk here:

www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/29/russias-hardliners-present-their-manifesto-a77537

🤔

Foggy chips and fish anyone??

twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1520120085133897728?s=21&t=-pLzZ4OlhLJbMJPccfhqJg