Ukraine Invasion: Part 23

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, thanks for the company

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Hungary needs kicking out of NATO too. Traitors.

They are not overflying Ukraine...

Story/rumour here seems to be the "where" was to be either over Belarus or Russia itself.

Using a US Stinger (short range) means the target would have to be an aircraft either on approach, or taking off....so we're talking about a shoot down in the vicinity of an airport.

Few (if any) western airlines are using either Belarusian or Russian airspace, let alone their airports, so you can probably draw your own conclusions about targets that might have been being considered.

IF it's true (and it does need proving tho .. I kinda believe it) ... they need kicking out of NATO now. As soon as ever the reasonable-belief proof is provided.

Here's a good article on the problem of Hungary:

warontherocks.com/2022/04/is-hungary-ukraines-biggest-problem-in-the-european-union/

I believe it Lj.

NATO cannot have a mole in the camp of a defensive alliance and I hope when it's proven they will take swift action. Absolutely no way can Hungary enjoy nato protection when sniggering up their sleeves supporting the atrocities in Ukraine (if it's true)

And if it is true this is the scenario:

If France was attacked would I be happy with NATO troops being deployed to protect them. Yes

If Hungary was attacked, and this was true, would I be happy with NATO troops being deployed to Hungary. Absolutely fucking not.

Addendum: I'm also happy for NATO to go into Ukraine although not a NATO member because it's not to do with NATO, it's right.

Defending a potential backstabbed because they are NATO? This is where is falls apart

Bit of background info might help.

FWIW the dangers were recognised years back and as a result there's a whole chunk of the central and northern Black Sea, Crimea and land further north that most western airlines stopped overflying in 2014 and they have stayed out of it ever since....

The main east-west routes over the very southern Black Sea that are still being used stay in Georgian/Turkish/Romanian airspace and have been deemed allowable by those in government agencies that look at these things.

Not I am sure they are taking the utmost precautions. I'd still do a big detour if it were me 😬

I click on military planes when they have their transponders on and I'm amazed how close commercial flights are. Eek!

Flight MH fucking 17.

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Key Takeaways

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along any axes of advance and instead shelled Ukrainian positions on the frontlines.
The April 30 Ukrainian artillery strike on Russian command headquarters near Izyum likely disrupted Russian operations on the Izyum axis and may hinder Russian offensives from Izyum for the next few days.
Russian forces on the Southern Axis continued to regroup and reconnoiter likely in preparation for ground assaults in the direction of Kryvyi Rih, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhia

@Ijsbear

Flight MH fucking 17.

FWIW if MH management had been paying less attention to reducing fuel burn and more attention to the warnings that being put out by various agencies then they wouldn't have been on that route...

Many other western airlines (including the one I was working at) stopped overflying that part of the Ukraine well before that shootdown.

So I've been giving some thought to suggestions that Putin may "escalate" by declaring war on Ukraine to enable mass conscription.

On balance I do not believe this will happen (or if it does, then it's a sign that the Russian leadership is far more out of touch than we can presently suppose).

Russia is not making the gains it had hoped for in the South and East of the country for the same reasons it failed to take Kyiv - namely poor preparation, tactics, logistics, poorly maintained equipment/supplies and both over and underestimating the morale/capability and fortitude of the Russian and Ukrainian forces respectively.

In short, the one thing Russia is not lacking is manpower and logically adding more untrained/unwilling/undersupplied troops to the theatre reduces, rather increases their chances of success.

It also sends a clear message to the Russian population that "we are not winning" and that's a message Putin's ego will, I feel be unable to deliver by this course of action.

BreadInCaptivity, I agree it does seem like a declaration of war on Ukraine is tantamount to an admission by Russia that the war is not going well. What puny Ukraine? It might provide better optics for Russia to draw the NATO into the equation though I am not sure how Putin would declare war on NATO in the territory of Ukraine. Guess Putin won't be bothered by legalities.

I imagine escalation by Russia could be declaration of war, invasion of Moldova, or use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons or just more shelling of civilians and infrastructure. But can he, how long can he keep this up?

My concern is the Putin is not getting good info from his generals about the lack of success on the battlefield or he is paranoid and escalates even though he would be crazy to. There are also reports (not sure how true they are) that Putin may be undergoing cancer surgery and will hand over control of the invasion to ultra-hawk and hardline Security Council head and ex-FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev.

I'd ask the question if Putin is getting reliable information but also if he is listening to it?

There is much that cannot be hidden. You don't lose a Flagship in the Black Sea by accident. You lose it because it was outdated and you were ill prepared for the technology deployed against it in the face of your overconfidence.

Putin isn't stupid. He's made the mistake of many despots of creating their own kleptomaniac bubble, yes, but I'm sure he understands the direction of the wind.

As for Patrushev, well that's interesting. A lot depends on Putin's health. Be loyal or build your own base - or be a kingmaker.

That he's Putin's Putin doesn't mean much imho. People around despots tend be what they need to be to survive/thrive under a regime.

Without it, they wither or build their own power base that often (historically) discards the legacy of their predecessor (or at least diminishes it) and when your predecessor ends on a low note there is no reason to follow their path.

The destruction of the grain stores is wicked. Is there still any hope of a diplomatic solution, do you think?

Not currently I don’t think.

Visa nonsense continued

According to the latest government figures, 59,000 people have had visas approved but have not yet arrived in the UK. Only 15% of the 74,700 Ukrainians who applied under the sponsorship route have made it to Britain.

A large number of those who have not yet arrived will be people waiting for other family members to receive their visas before travelling; children’s applications usually take longer because the UK requires them to undergo security scans if they do not have their own international passport.

However, a significant proportion of the 59,000 Ukrainians will be people who have had visas approved but have not been informed of the approval.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/02/priti-patel-refugees-legal-action-homes-for-ukraine?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Mattia Nelles AT mattia_N
Kirill Budanov, the head of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GUR), sat down with NV for a rather long interview. Here are some of the key takeaways for me. /1

Budanov says that the Russians postponed their referendum in Kherson because of a lack of local support and collaborators. They seem to have abandoned the idea for now and are probing alternative solutions (creating historical regions and managing Kherson from i.e. Crimea). /2

"They embarked on a path of genocide", Budanov says and confirms the reports that the Russians are removing grain and agricultural equipment. He adds that they do it to cause a "demographic" and "humanitarian" crisis to bend the local's will to collaborate. /3

The Intelligence Chief says that quite a lot of effective destruction of the enemy in the occupied territories is done through residents loyal to Kyiv: starting from operations to direct and adjust artillery and aviation, ending with special operations to eliminate enemies. /4

On the likely mass mobilization, Budanov asks: how will they explain it to their own people? Why does Russia, with its big army need mobilization, when, according to their official reports, everything goes according to plan? /5

He adds that before the start of true mobilization, the Russian army is actively checking what they actually have available in terms of equipment and outfits. But he expects a mass mobilization "in the near future", possibly on 9 May. /6

Budanov comments on the visit of the RU Chief of Staff to the frontline and says that this first and foremost reveals that the Russians have problems with personnel and their offensive operations in the Donbas. Several high-ranking commanders had to manage battalions. /7

Interestingly, Budanov says that the media reports about purges within the FSB are exaggerated both quantitatively and qualitatively. Some heads, like the one of Sergey Beseda in charge of operational planning in #Ukraine, rolled but this does not qualify as a major purge. /8

He hints that Sergey Beseda story is connected with the former head of the Opposition Platform Victor Medvechuk (but does not provide any details) but Bodanov adds that RU seems to have dropped Medvechuk for good and does not want to get him out. /9

At the end of the interview, Bodanov says he sees two scenarios for ending the war: the disintegration of Russia or the removal of Putin and relative preservation of RU. Giving Putin a face-saving way out of the war is almost impossible, he says. /10

The last points warrant the most discussion. What is the Ukraine endgame and how does the West help to achieve it? Weakening RU (US goal?) can only be a part of it. Driving RU out of Ukraine incl. the entire Donbas AND Crimea seem desirable for UKR but is it realistic at the moment? /end

https://nv.ua/ukr/ukraine/politics/gur-minoboroni-shcho-vidomo-pro-herson-i-donbas-interv-yu-nv-novini-ukrajini-50238690.html

Whole article is worth a read.

Interesting that both Ukraine and Uk think Putin will declare war on 9th. (uk intelligence briefing).

Just my thoughts but I'm more positive than most, getting that US and German/Dutch artillery to the front will be massive (as it will allow them to outrange Russian artillery, which has been key to the few gains they've had). At the same time you've got them being trained to use (better) Nato equipment in European countries at the moment.

To put it bluntly, for the Russians it doesn't get any better than this. They've used their best troops, equipment, leadership etc (and been found wanting, and cant replace most of the lost equipment). For the Ukranians it's getting better day by day (recieving new training, better equipment, continuing to use the amazing intelligence they've been given etc).

Caveat to that though, there are a lot of maybes in there, maybe Russia finds a new Zhukov amongst its many replacement generals, maybe the supporting countries don't have the stomach for a long conflict, maybe someone's money will run out, maybe Transnistria will drag in Romania, maybe something will drag Finland or the Baltic states in, maybe Russia will mobilise and throw millions more men into the fray, maybe Russia will go through a coupe and immediately withdraw.

The only way the Russians improve is learning by their incompetence, will they be able to develop combative tactics on the fly? Will they be able to do this when they're getting replacement troops that are less experienced and coming over with older equipment?

The last two weeks have been stalemate, with both sides receiving considerable losses...... but that was Russia's big push, that was the big offensive coming, following the failed push for Kyiv. It was billed as something out of WW2 with massed artillery and large formations of tanks steamrolling large swaths of the open (tank) country, but they've had very little in the way of meaningful breakthroughs. This isn't sustainable for Russia.

Yes, you'll find examples online of both sides propagandising victories (or even losses in an example I saw earlier) but this is clearly not going to plan for Russia, at all.

Lavrov's comments about Hitler and Jewish people are despicable. Just when you thought you'd heard it all.

Reuters have apparently reported this morning that the numbers of civilians in the Azovstal plant is much lower than previously believed. Not sure if it's been discussed on this thread previously, but given there are UN personnel on the ground with the Red Cross helping with the evacuations from Mariupol, it seems pretty clear that Guterres's visits to Moscow and Kyiv last week were related.

If Russia formally declares war, leading to conscription in Russia, will that not be very unpopular with the Russian people? Are they in general so idealistic, as to be prepared for the extra cost, in lives and money? I do understand about the vast rural and semi rural population being brainwashed by Kremlin disinformation, but in the cities it's very hard to believe that people don't have good knowledge of the true state of affairs.

Declare war on who nato? Uk? Ukraine? Us? This is all so surreal

TBF to Malaysian Airlines, they weren't the only ones and the conflict had only escalated just 3 months earlier.
Airline regulators also thought flying at altitude would be ok.

Ultimately the one responsible is, yet again Putin and it should also be remembered, that whatever Western leaders pretend now (inc BJ & the Tory Party) they carried on taking Russian money, turned a blind eye to money laundering and allowed us to become more reliant on Russian raw materials.

My heart bled the other day on hearing that a family inc a 14yo had suffered terrible injuries after being bombed in Odesa.... they'd been waiting weeks to come to the UK, despite having a sponsor to take them in.

What the Fxxx is wrong with this country? we are deliberately trying to limit the numbers coming here, whilst saying the opposite.