Ukraine Invasion: Part 23

[MagicFox]

Welcome all, thanks for the company

@Igotjelly · 01/05/2022 14:43
If this goes well it’s a major victory. Literally praying for each and every one of them.

Yes, absolutely.

The quality of actionable intelligence and execution in the theatre is truly staggering.

While mobile phones and SM can bring an element of 'real time' to the public, there is much that we do not know and may not know (for some considerable time) about how this war is being conducted. The initiative is now with the UA, despite the Russian army still being the invader.

One thing that we probably do gain with Nato as opposed to a consolidated EU-based army is technological competitiveness. We can have Dutch, French, US and British companies competing for business through innovation and effectiveness of the same anti-missile protection system, for example. This is similar to the environment in which Silicon Valley companies operate, from start-ups to Large Caps. One thing to be aware of when calls for an EU-wide army grow louder.

Former #Ukraine Minister of Internal Affairs Avakov confirms #Gerasimov has been wounded! "Chief General Staff of the Armed Forces of Valery Gerasimov was wounded on the territory of . He received a shrapnel wound to the right lower leg without a bone fracture"

They mean he shot himself in the foot ?

This looks like the BBC news article re: "
Mariupol civilian evacuation begins to Ukraine and Russia-held territories

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61292951

Excerpts:

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a large group is also on its way to Zaporizhzhia, which Ukraine maintains control of.

"The first group of about 100 people is already heading to the controlled area," he tweeted. "Tomorrow we'll meet them in Zaporizhzhia. Grateful to our team! Now they, together with UN, are working on the evacuation of other civilians from the plant."

The United Nations confirmed it was involved with the operation, alongside the Red Cross and the "parties to the conflict".

The evacuation convoy arrived on Saturday morning, the UN said - but did not give details on where people were being taken or how many had left, saying that sharing details could jeopardise the safety of the operation.

The first civilians managed to leave the Azovstal plant on Saturday, but their fate was unclear for most of the following day.

Now, the Russian defence ministry says some 80 civilians have left the besieged steelworks and were taken to Bezimenne, a village in Russian-held territory in Ukraine. They are being provided with medical care and supplies, it said.

In a statement carried by Russian media, the ministry also said that civilians who wanted to leave for Ukraine-controlled areas "have been handed over to representatives of the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross".

Zelensky is saying a large group is also on its way to Ukrainian-controlled Zaporizhzhia. The Russians are claiming the 80 evacuees are being taken to Russian-controlled Bezimenne.

Are the evacuees being split up? Why would any willingly go to Russian areas, unless UN or Red Cross is there to ensure their safety. Are Russians telling porkies again?

You win! :D

@blueshoes Possibly because they have family living in Russian-controlled areas. Possibly because some of them have had family who've been taken to Russia unwillingly and they are afraid that if they go West their family will have a harder time. Possibly because some of them want to (seems incredible to me, but who know?)

ljsbear, thanks for giving some non-sinister explanations. If it was the evacuees' choice to go to Russian-controlled areas, however constrained those choices are, then it is not forced kidnap.

From the sound of it forced kidnap has happened before but not now. It seems more of a freer choice, at least on the surface. Some things look like free choice but ain't, iyswim.

Not sure I agree @blueshoes Particularly with if they fall into @Ijsbear second category.

reports of a military base near Belgorod being rather brightly on fire, and a sabotage of a bridge near Kursk (quite a long way into Russia directly north of Kharkiv)

Gerasimov is the golden boy of Russian hybrid war theory. He even has a Doctrine named after him (coalesced around 2013 or so). He's probably pushed to the front by the Leader in a 'you thought of it now make it work' way.

Not sure his Theory holds up much in practise

(ok i know that's not really fair given all the bad coordination, maintenance etc .. .but he's really not managed to get his soldiers workign well has he?)

Hmm, a shrapnel injury or a "shrapnel injury"?

So glad the civilians are being evacuated now. Just hope the ones going to Russian controlled areas are going willingly and not under duress.

@Natsku It woudl be quite something if he'd tipped off the Ukranians himself in order to get a 'shrapnal injury' wouldn't it? :D

A key aspect of Gerasimov's Doctrine is that 80% of the war is fought off the battlefield (economic, political, informational etc.). The ends are what matter and the means are deployed in a mix to achieve them. Or something along those lines. I'm not sure what the ends are in this situation.

I've been out of the loop seeing London friends this weekend. I did have brief contact with two Russians my age (I was born in 1990) who were in Moscow about a decade ago and I have barely kept in touch with. One is in the USA and one in Poland now and both are part of the educated diaspora who are being guarded about what they talk about.

Now that's a thought! 😁
Hmm first time using an emoji since the update. I don't like it.

I asked my contact in Odesa about those who had been evacuated to Russian controlled territories. He says he THINKS that they probably were coerced to a large degree (say 80%) but that their decision making would be somewhat influenced by their state of despair. Likely they have chosen the seemingly easiest or quickest way out of Mariupol. Makes sense! If I'd had bunker busting bombs dropped on my head I'd be just get me the hell out of hell!

Nah it doesn't! the more Russians who are in Ukraine "fighting" end up there permanently the better.
Perhaps if so many Russians hadn't behaved like wild animals, i wouldn't feel this way.

Maybe the 'wound sliced up his femoral artery? we can but live in hope.

So sad. Even with the UN and Redcross on site they could not freely choose to go to a safe harbour. I cannot imagine their mental state and understand if they felt this was the best option after being trapped underground with little food, water, medicine, sunshine or fresh air for many weeks. I hope they eventually do make it to freedom.

Do you have a comprehensive link to the Russian hybrid war theory because things that pop-up on Google are limited. What you are describing in very generic terms - economic, political, informational - are theories that are tried, tested and very old.

How are Russia winning economically?

Politically are they driving more countries to Nato or not?

Informational - well data is incomplete isn't it if you are a Russian? How many parents still believe their sons are alive in the military.

You know, when I had cancer I needed to know everything about it upfront. Warts and all. Survival rate, how difficult chemo would be, how long I would be isolated with no visitors. Because then I could plan how to defeat my enemy. Full information is what we need to make decisions. Nothing more and nothing less.

But if the Kremlin is backing Gerasimov's doctrine as correct, this explains a lot. Because it is how the US have operated for the last 70 years, only getting more savvy. No wonder Russia is so out of date on the battlefield. It is trying to adapt theory now that is 1970's.

Alexandra2001: Maybe the 'wound sliced up his femoral artery? we can but live in hope.

Daily Mail (I know) reported that at Belgorod, Gerasimov boarded a Defence Ministry Tu-154 plane by himself unaided which flew to an unknown destination.

'The source confirms that it was Gerasimov who flew away,' he posted.
'But he went on board himself, alive and well.'

Yes - I thought that initially. The thigh is a good part to aim for. Less protected than the torso. In the field, even when running from L to R in vision, you have a target where the femoral area has little movement out of scope. Your sight is outside L thigh then inside R thigh alternately as the body is running. You do not need to compensate, just aim ahead a little depending on distance and weather, squeeze and the work is done. The key is anticipating the break and shooting quickly, but its a pretty high success rate (even if a bit 'lazy').

We have no knowledge on what took place with this guy. It might have been stray metal from a mortar 50 metres away. By all accounts he walked to the chopper. Unlikely to be femoral artery because walking acts like a pump.

Looking ahead, I can see the removal of sanctions being partially tied to the release of Ukrainians forcibly taken to Russia.

I am also idly wondering if the job title "Russian general" has overtaken "logger" as the most dangerous occupation.

I assume "informational" includes influencing the populations of other countries to vote in the politicians Russia would prefers.

Also to stoke political campaigning in those countries over all sorts of issues, where Russia sees this as advantageous. So they'll amplify and heat up apparently unrelated issues which are inherently divisive or could cause actual unrest, or which cause the population to disengage from democracy; and they'll also covertly push obviously related issues like supporting cuts to military spending.

@MMBaranova · 01/05/2022 19:32
A key aspect of Gerasimov's Doctrine is that 80% of the war is fought off the battlefield (economic, political, informational etc.). The ends are what matter and the means are deployed in a mix to achieve them. Or something along those lines. I'm not sure what the ends are in this situation.

@PerkingFaintly · 01/05/2022 20:11
I assume "informational" includes influencing the populations of other countries to vote in the politicians Russia would prefers.

Also to stoke political campaigning in those countries over all sorts of issues, where Russia sees this as advantageous. So they'll amplify and heat up apparently unrelated issues which are inherently divisive or could cause actual unrest, or which cause the population to disengage from democracy; and they'll also covertly push obviously related issues like supporting cuts to military spending.

This Guardian article is about how successful they are on the informational side. However many Russian planted posts are spotted and deleted, I am sure many more go unnoticed and have their affect.

The Guardian says a lot are in Russian and for a Russian target audience, but I am sure most people can have an instant translation on their telephones. They may even be counting on this.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/01/russia-trolling-ukraine-traction-tiktok