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Original poster

Are you better than an MP at statistics?

47 replies

cakeorwine · 19/02/2022 18:31

There was a survey of 100 MPs which was discussed on More or Less last week.

Can you do better?
There were 3 questions - can you answer them?

  1. I toss a coin twice. What is the probability of getting 2 heads? (50% of MPs got this right)
  2. I roll a dice 6 times. I get 1,4,2,1,3,6

What is the mean and mode of those numbers?

(About 63% got this right)

  1. A diagnostic test has a false positive rate of 1 in 1000. So for every 1000 people who are tested and are negative, 1 will test positivr If someone test positive, what are the chances they actually are positive? 99.9% 99.99 % 99% 1% 0.01% Not enough information to tell

16% of MPs got this right.

So can you do better?

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 19/02/2022 18:32

What I find worrying is how many doctors can't get 3 right, and yet part of their job is to advise patients on risk...

BestKnitterInScotland · 19/02/2022 18:33

Probably not, no. We never studied statistics at school and I am not sure about the difference between "mean" and "mode".

And I don't really care, to be honest.

I know a lot of other things about all sorts of other topics though, and I'm fluent in one foreign language and pretty strong in another. We are all good at different things.

CatherinedeBourgh · 19/02/2022 18:33

I despair.

wonderstuff · 19/02/2022 18:35

None of them require more than mid grade gcse maths do they!

BestKnitterInScotland · 19/02/2022 18:40

Oh and if we're talking maths OP your title is misleading.

There are 625 (?) ish MPs. A survey of 100 MPs - who chose the 100? Self-selecting? Balanced for age, sex, educational background? So it's really a study of a sixth (ish) of MPs.

Lots of them wouldn't have done GCSE maths. None of the Scottish ones for a start. And if they're my age or older (50+) they will not have covered this sort of thing at school either. I have also managed to get through my whole working life without needing to do this stuff too.

OneRingToRuleThemAll · 19/02/2022 18:42

Yes, I can answer all of these, but I am currently studying Economics at degree level which is maths and statistics heavy.

illyawasthebest · 19/02/2022 18:42

I got straight As in maths at school and couldn't do a single one of those now. However if I needed to I could probably work it out eventually.

I don't require MPs to know everything instinctively - I do require them to do research and listen to experts.

SpikeDearheart · 19/02/2022 18:45

@illyawasthebest

I got straight As in maths at school and couldn't do a single one of those now. However if I needed to I could probably work it out eventually.

I don't require MPs to know everything instinctively - I do require them to do research and listen to experts.

I don't completely disagree with you, but surely being able to do research and think critically involves at least a very basic amount of data interpretation and understanding of probability and risk i.e. the ability to answer these questions.
QueenOfThorns · 19/02/2022 18:49

Bearing in mind that the delightful Michael Gove once said that he wanted all schools to be ‘above average’, does this really surprise you?

Original poster
cakeorwine · 19/02/2022 18:53

There are 625 (?) ish MPs. A survey of 100 MPs - who chose the 100? Self-selecting? Balanced for age, sex, educational background? So it's really a study of a sixth (ish) of MPs

That's a good question - and one that would be interesting to see the data for and break down further.

This is a link to the Royal Statistical Society who carried out the survey

rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/general-news/new-rss-survey-tests-statistical-skills-of-mps/

rss.org.uk/news-publication/news-publications/2022/general-news/behind-the-numbers-the-rss-puts-the-statistical-sk/

And the actual results

comresglobal.com/polls/royal-statistical-society-mps-polling/

It looks like they tried to get a representative sample by party.

OP posts:
Original poster
cakeorwine · 19/02/2022 18:56

I don't completely disagree with you, but surely being able to do research and think critically involves at least a very basic amount of data interpretation and understanding of probability and risk i.e. the ability to answer these questions

Considering there is a misuse of statistics all the time by the Government, it would be nice to see someone at PMQs actually bring up Johnson on some of his misuse of numbers.

OP posts:
JackieCollinshasnoauthority · 19/02/2022 19:00

Posting without looking:

  1. 1 in 4

  2. Mean: 2.83 Mode: I can never remember this one but I'm guessing 1 (most common)

  3. Not enough info to tell.

MPs shouldn't need to know anything about statistics imo but they should listen to experts!

JackieCollinshasnoauthority · 19/02/2022 19:02

Oh I assumed people would actually answer...

Original poster
cakeorwine · 19/02/2022 19:05

MPs shouldn't need to know anything about statistics imo but they should listen to experts

I don't agree - I think knowing the difference between mean and median - and the effect of skewed data on that is important. Knowing about spread of data. Knowing that someone giving you a statistic can not be giving you the full context, knowing about the effect of sample size, the law of small numbers.

Just enough to make them think about a number that an expert is telling you - because an expert may be a biased expert.

OP posts:
Original poster
cakeorwine · 19/02/2022 19:05

@JackieCollinshasnoauthority

Oh I assumed people would actually answer...
What was the probability of that happening Grin
OP posts:
DaisyWaldron · 19/02/2022 19:08

I was horrified. I'm not particularly good at maths, but got all 3 right, and would have hoped that anyone actually making the sort of important decisions an MP does would have a basic ability to understand statistics.

JackieCollinshasnoauthority · 19/02/2022 19:08

Not enough information to answer Grin

AlexaShutUp · 19/02/2022 19:14

None of the questions are particularly difficult. It's worrying if those in decision making roles are so incapable of dealing with basic data.

Original poster
cakeorwine · 19/02/2022 19:15

@AlexaShutUp

None of the questions are particularly difficult. It's worrying if those in decision making roles are so incapable of dealing with basic data.
The last one is much harder - but it has very much been relevant over the past couple of years.
OP posts:
AlexaShutUp · 19/02/2022 19:21

Yes, I had to stop and think about the last one, but it wasn't the kind of thing that you'd need to be a specialist to answer. Just a bit of basic logic.

TracyMosby · 19/02/2022 19:22

I can answer all of those because ive a child currently in high school.

I don't agree - I think knowing the difference between mean and median - and the effect of skewed data on that is important. Knowing about spread of data. Knowing that someone giving you a statistic can not be giving you the full context, knowing about the effect of sample size, the law of small numbers
Totally agree with this. I was talking to my brother about this at Christmas, how different the ‘average’ will be if using median, mean or mode. He had no idea but is older than me, mid50’s, and probably didnt do this at school.

ruthieness · 19/02/2022 19:44

Just to be a smart arse - The questions are not difficult
but attention to detail is required if the intention is to replicate the exact question asked!!

AlexaShutUp · 19/02/2022 19:45

@ruthieness

Just to be a smart arse - The questions are not difficult but attention to detail is required if the intention is to replicate the exact question asked!!
Yes, I thought that too. Wink
Original poster
cakeorwine · 19/02/2022 19:48

@ruthieness

Just to be a smart arse - The questions are not difficult but attention to detail is required if the intention is to replicate the exact question asked!!
Well, the dice one is close enough. Same principle needed.
OP posts:
Gribbie · 19/02/2022 19:52

I got them all right - I did a GCSE in stats more than 3 decades ago, and did mode with my Y6 child yesterday.

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