What’s Putin up to in the Ukraine?

[PoshPyjamas]

I mean, I know you probabaly don’t all actually know 😀

But ages ago there was a thread about Kim Jong who looked like he was gearing up for Armageddon at the time, and some very knowledgeable posters came along and explained why it was all a storm in a tea cup and I felt a lot better.

Should we be worried about this?

@PoshPyjamas

I mean, I know you probabaly don’t all actually know 😀

But ages ago there was a thread about Kim Jong who looked like he was gearing up for Armageddon at the time, and some very knowledgeable posters came along and explained why it was all a storm in a tea cup and I felt a lot better.

Should we be worried about this?

I'll take a shot at making you feel better...

Troops at the border elevate commodity prices, in this instance, it is the middle of winter and impacts Russia's largest exports gas, natural gas, etc. International 'concern' raises the prices. Russia did about 18.3 billion GBP of business with Europe last year in natural gas. His movement of troops and military assets to the border probably cost him less than 15 million GBP. He may gain an extra 20 billion GBP in natural gas exports by playing this game. Sad-funny, people in the know who figured it out work in the industry in the west don't mind it as they make more profit too. I guess you could buy some natural gas futures too...

The more you know.

That is so interesting williamFlgellum.

A political analyst from the region told me that, for Russia, Ukraine has always been part of Greater Russia. The country joining the EU or institutions like NATO was simply not an option for Russia. He likened it to Russia invading Wales.

But the game is of brinkmanship. He was optimistic that an agreement would be reached, but said that for Putin, it would have to be one that allowed him to ‘save face’.

The funny thing about the situation is that if Russia ever gets 'tied down' in a battle with the West, it will lose half of it's haunches (eastern Russia) to China.

He knows this better than anyone.

Russia wants an independant Ukraine that is a buffer from the west, the way that the US and EU have been encouraging them to liberalize is seen as a threat by Putin.

Make no mistake if Russia decides to take over Ukraine it could do so easily, nobody would lift a finger to stop them, nobody wants a shooting war with Russia.

There are already lots of sanctions against them which they don’t like and has pushed them closer to China, if it gets worse they will cut off the gas supply to Europe. For Germany in particular that would be catastrophic, so they would opposed any military action anyway.

The best option is for the west to back off and Ukraine to declare itself independant and be friendly with both sides, this could bring great benefits

My sil is from Ukraine and sees herself as Russian Ukrainian. Not everyone there sees Russia in a negative way. I'd be wary of totally trusting an American narrative on this. They do have a tendency to meddle in other countries politics for its own reasons, that aren't always to the benefit of the ordinary people who end up living or fighting in war zones.
The last thing we all need is to be dragged into yet another war that has nothing to do with us, about a place many people couldn't locate on a map and in all honesty don't give two hoots about.

That’s an interesting article re the Ukraine vs The Ukraine. When I was growing up I always thought that the ‘The’ made it special, more important, not less. All the Ukrainians I knew would have laughed at the idea of being offended by it, not least because they used it themselves. Having escaped the country during WW2, or brought here as prisoners of war, they really would have seen this as people inventing problems because life here is too easy. I guess it’s good to know I live in easy times 😀

It’s great to see such a range of ideas about what Putin might be up to, that don’t involve WW3!

I think Putin is not really interested in war. He just wants to talk. And he's been out in the cold for so long this is the only way to get the West's attention.

I’m maybe naive but I really can’t see WW3 over Ukraine. Not to say it wouldn’t be bloody and obvious lit terrible for the average Ukrainian.

As above I don’t think Putin really wants a war with the west, it’s all tactics and brinkmanship.

It's actually as much about Ukraine as it is about Germany.

Putin has managed to make Germany depend on him, and now he's establishing his influence over them, they will have to balance between him and the US and he's making them his bitch, to put it bluntly.

@PoshPyjamas

That’s an interesting article re the Ukraine vs The Ukraine. When I was growing up I always thought that the ‘The’ made it special, more important, not less. All the Ukrainians I knew would have laughed at the idea of being offended by it, not least because they used it themselves. Having escaped the country during WW2, or brought here as prisoners of war, they really would have seen this as people inventing problems because life here is too easy. I guess it’s good to know I live in easy times 😀

We don't say 'The' England

This is all fascinating thank you. Germany was being criticised earlier for not sending weapons or military, I understand why now.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

He doesn't need to start a war. He has Europe in his hold with the gas pipeline.

He needs to be seen as strong, and he cannot be seen to lose his face in Ukraine. Biden will back off.

This is why we should make use of our own natural resources including gas.

It's never good (or cheap) to rely on imported energy.

As for the geopolitics, it's a lot more complicated than Russia = baddie, Ukraine = good guy, or vice versa. It's very complex, with a long messy history.

The only thing that is certain, is we should stay the fuck out of it. We really do not need to get involved in another war.

@Aderyn21

My sil is from Ukraine and sees herself as Russian Ukrainian. Not everyone there sees Russia in a negative way. I'd be wary of totally trusting an American narrative on this. They do have a tendency to meddle in other countries politics for its own reasons, that aren't always to the benefit of the ordinary people who end up living or fighting in war zones. The last thing we all need is to be dragged into yet another war that has nothing to do with us, about a place many people couldn't locate on a map and in all honesty don't give two hoots about.

This

We don't say 'The' England

We are the England
We are the England
The Mighty Mighty England
The Mighty Mighty England
We are the Army
We are the Army
The Barmy Barmy Army
The Barmy Barmy Army

As if COVID wasn't enough now we need to fear a freaking war!

Will it honestly escalate to a war?

Us is ordering people to leave by Monday.

Unfortunately, even if Putin doesn't want a war.. Doesn't this kind of thing sometimes accidentally lead to one?
He wants a puppet dictator in there

In Ukraine??? Here in the UK, Putin can easily hold us to ransom when they provide most of the gas that heats our houses. You don’t really need to fear an embargo when the only thing you need to do to call the shots is turn the gas supply off and let Europe freeze, much like they did to the French army in the early XX century.

No-one wants a shooting war with Russia on land that was once part of the Soviet Union. And of course Russia annexed the Crimea in 2014, despite international outcry.

Biden is talking tough about that possibility though, at least to the extent of severe consequences.

Interesting background piece:

www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/03/17/crimea-six-years-after-illegal-annexation/

Don't overlook things like the the Russian side wanting continued access to the Black Sea, the conflict in Dondas, and Ukraine's ever closer relationship with NATO.

Access to the

@GrandmasCat

In Ukraine??? Here in the UK, Putin can easily hold us to ransom when they provide most of the gas that heats our houses. You don’t really need to fear an embargo when the only thing you need to do to call the shots is turn the gas supply off and let Europe freeze, much like they did to the French army in the early XX century.

No, Russia doesn't provide most of the gas that heats our homes. Our net imports from all countries (i.e. imports less exports) amount to less than half of the gas we use. Including gas that originated in Russia and arrived in the UK via other countries, a commonly quoted figure is that around 5% of our gas comes from Russia, but some sources suggest the true figure could be less than half of that. So no, Putin cannot easily hold us to ransom. Germany and some other EU countries yes, but not the UK.

So long as we don't get dragged in to a war while Germany sits on its arse and lets us, to protect their gas supply. I can't see what's in it for us - only loss of life and a ton of money we can spend better elsewhere

@Fuckedoffisanunderstatement

Ukraine, not The Ukraine

Came here to say this! My friend is Ukrainian and has posted on social media about why calling it The Ukraine is offensive.

@Aderyn21

So long as we don't get dragged in to a war while Germany sits on its arse and lets us, to protect their gas supply. I can't see what's in it for us - only loss of life and a ton of money we can spend better elsewhere

Absolutely.

@Aderyn21

So long as we don't get dragged in to a war while Germany sits on its arse and lets us, to protect their gas supply. I can't see what's in it for us - only loss of life and a ton of money we can spend better elsewhere

Territorial order in Europe matters. If Russia can defy international law and seize territory without consequence, it makes us less safe and increases the likelihood of another major war. Both Russia and UK signed the Budapest Memorandum which led to Ukraine giving up the nuclear weapons it had inherited from the Soviet Union in exchange for guarantees of territorial integrity. Ukraine is adjacent to allies we have pledged to defend through NATO. If we allow Russia to take over Ukraine, Europe will be harder to defend.

Helping Ukraine also helps to build trust in the UK as an ally and partner, which will help with other issues.