Not a doctor, or health professional but from what I've read and been told it's basically impossible to say - obviously you get all the tales of 'my Nana smoked 50 a day and lived to 110' but then again the people who contract lung cancer off a whiff of passive smoke at a bus stop. But of course it is a risk. The way I think about it is we each have a 'jar' that is our health, each person's jar is a different shape and size, purely down to luck and genetics. With each risk factor in your life (smoking, drinking, obesity, stress etc) you add an extra ball to that jar, some balls are bigger than others, when your jar overflows you'll get serious health problems. So some people are lucky and have huge jars and can keep adding to them for years even with quite big risks with no issues, whereas others overflow off a single big ball or not very many small ones.
So no judgement here but no-one can tell you more than that smoking even fairly moderately is a large ball, and the more you can do to cut down on that and anything else unhealthy the better, but is it certain death, no. I will say though that of all the nasty health problems I've witnesses in my friends and relatives, COPD is a really horrible way to go, it kills you slowly but is so debilitating on the way, if you have any family history of it on either side, as a lay person with no real idea of the genetics of it that alone would make me cut down.
Do you vape? I know it comes with its own issues but if you find a flavour you get on with (my smoker DH favours the ones that taste closest to 'real' tobacco rather than bubblegum or whatever) and get one that feels close to a cigarette in your hands, could you stand to replace one or two cigarettes with that instead, rather than quitting altogether? Or if it's only a Saturday night treat (which let's face it, we all need in winter), could you try just one Saturday a month treating yourself in some other way (nice film, bubblebath, home cooked meal or whatever appeals) instead of the wine and fags which you can have the other days?