What is a "blackout"?

[Fiestyfish]

I keep seeing in the papers about possible "blackouts" this winter due to the energy issues but what will this entail? Short power cuts? Power cuts that last days? No heating?

I wonder about the effect on the inter-linked-ness of the economy compared with the 70s. As HGV drivers and gas prices affected CO2 production from fertiliser shut-downs, butchers and HGV driver shortages propagating problems across supply chains, livestock farmers and so on unplanned power cuts now might have relatively unforseeablee consequences. I expect the PM will say it's part and parcel of levelling up, building back better and everyone should have predicted and planned better.

[quote MyPatronusIsACat]@Fiestyfish

It's not gonna happen. It's all scaremongering.

Also, people can blame Brexit as much as they like, but shit like this has happened before in the past. Blaming Brexit for everything that goes wrong is pathetic.

FFS, some people will blame Brexit for the bastard rain! [/quote]
Google it,I've found many mainstream articles since 2018 stating clearly that blackouts are to be expected because of Brexit. I went back to look because I remember reading them.

@Zilla1

I wonder about the effect on the inter-linked-ness of the economy compared with the 70s. As HGV drivers and gas prices affected CO2 production from fertiliser shut-downs, butchers and HGV driver shortages propagating problems across supply chains, livestock farmers and so on unplanned power cuts now might have relatively unforseeablee consequences. I expect the PM will say it's part and parcel of levelling up, building back better and everyone should have predicted and planned better.

Settle down Chicken Little.

The real concern is the energy prices.

@FourTeaFallOut based on your post, I'd be more concerned if you agreed with me.

@Fiestyfish. The national grid and ESO its branch that covers electricity are saying there will be no power cuts. Problems with supply are nothing to do with Brexit 😏 but are because of a fire taking out one of the supply cables from the continent. Here are comments made by the national grid in different newspapers - not notably govt friendly!

The Guardian
(ESO) said it believed there was enough slack in the system to avoid blackouts affecting households and factories.

The Mirror
The Grid predicts it will have enough reserve electricity this winter to meet 6.6% of demand

The Times
(The national grid) was “confident” that it could keep the lights on. The country should not run out of gas...

Polkadots2021 No doubt another thing dismissed as project fear
'Project fear' is starting to look like the milder version!

I also used to live in an area with frequent power cuts.
most were short lived, 1 or 2 hours but sometimes longer than that.

we have
camping led lanterns
tea warmer run with tea candles
gas camping cooker (only use one outside!)
power banks
solar panel for charging phones or power banks (you can get decent camping ones)

@LagneyandCasey

I live in an area where we are susceptible to electric powercuts. It's good to be prepared. We always have torches charged, candles and matches to hand, logs and kindling for the fire, big pile of warm blankets, powerbanks and kindles charged and solar lamps in the porch that are kept switched off but should be charged when we need them for a bit of security when the street lights are out. The hob is gas so we can eat at least. I remember the powercuts of the 70s as well and as a child it was quite fun. Probably not so much for for the adults.

This

@Polkadots2021
"Google it. I've found many mainstream articles since 2018 stating clearly that blackouts are to be expected because of Brexit. I went back to look because I remember reading them."

Remember 1999 and the many reports clearly stating that the whole economy and UK infrastructure was going to self-destruct at 00.00.01 on 1.1.2000. Result: It didn't happen.

Remember 1987 and Micharl Fish forecasting no hurricane. Result: 18 lives lost in a hurricane.

Forecasts may or may not turn out to be true. But in the end they are just guesses, sometimes educated guesses, but guesses just the same.

We have specialist fridges with temperature monitors for COVID and other vaccines. We have a UPS for a part of the IT kit but not for the fridges and I'd need to recheck the wattage of the freezers to see if a UPS with suitable capacity was available easily. We're not acute so don't have back up generators like hospitals have. If we had a power cut over the weekend or even during the week and can't find clinically-acceptable alternative storage then all that will get binned if monitored as being outside the tolerances and the manufacturers won't confirm acceptability. We're short our 'flu vacc delivery and other vaccines due to HGV logistics, the manufacturers said. We're about to deliver the COVID third primary dose and boosters. A small example but a potentially unplanned effect of a power cut lasting more than a few hours.

Still, energy prices as the important thing.

I thought the risk was related to fire damage within a under sea cable? Or did I dream that up?

It's not like there's an internet/WWW/mobile basis to daily living and infrastructure now compared with the analogue 70s. Still, energy prices, that's the important thing.

But @Zilla1, the national grid and ESO are saying there won't be power cuts.

The risk in the UK has changed slightly as there are fewer big generators up north so it may be that the further north you are, the longer you are off power (maybe a few days or up to a week in the worst case scenario).
I'm sure the gov has contingencies but having a bit of water to spare (distribution system pumps would also be without power), and food that doesn't require cooking to eat, may be a good idea.

Still, energy prices as the important thing

Yes, because people will genuinely be sat in the dark and cold based on a situation that actually already exists, not the dramatic wonderings that can be achieved by catastrophising the highly unlikely event of an unplanned outage caused by a very unlikely shortage.

Man if only someone had invented and invested some other forms of energy production since the 70s...ho hum.

@FAQs

I thought the risk was related to fire damage within a under sea cable? Or did I dream that up?

Exactly right. A fire in the summer that will have effects til March. Nothing to do with Brexit. And the national grid saying no power cuts. But hey, why let the truth get in the way of a good scare story? Thank goodness people can't hoard electricity!

If it's like the 70s they will do them on a rota basis of, say, four hours at a stretch at different times. But the effects now would be pretty massive given our dependence on the internet and much greater use of electricity-driven gadgets. Now may be the time to buy shares in wind-up torches and radios!

But this is an area where I suspect Johnson will pull his finger out to try anything to avoid blackouts (and will probably throw a fortune in public funds at it), he must know it's not the sort of thing people forget at election time.

I grew up on a farm and still live in a rural area, so we are very used to power cuts here when the wind gets up and trees come down etc.

We have a few sets of LED pillar candles which were great when DD was younger as they were safe to put in her bedroom and we could leave one on in the bathroom etc. I also have lots of other candles, which I would use in the living room.

I have several power banks already, so would charge them all fully if we were to get blackouts. I do anyway now if there is bad weather forecast. I would probably buy a couple more if I knew we were going to get blackouts.

I also have a gas camping stove for when we get power cuts, so I would get more gas for that, and the cupboards are always full of tins of soup/beans/spaghetti, so we would be fine. We always have plenty of milk and cereal too, and cheese and biscuits, so wouldn't worry at all if we couldn't cook anything.

I would stock up on books from the charity shop as well, so I don't have to worry about keeping the ipad charged to read on kindle.

To be fair, I'm not a fan of Brexit, but I think that has been a risk for a few years as the coal stations started shutting down and, if it happens this year, could be a coincidence. Market volatility might be worse though, with Brexit removing us from the European energy agreement I can't remember the name for, and this might make a large blackout more likely (but I don't think affects severity). The energy market is well supported though and most likely ensuring blackouts don't happen will just cost more to the consumer in some form (a bit like the current gas supply issue).

@madisonbridges it looks like camping stoves will be the next big thing

National Grid said they were 'confident' there shouldn't or wouldn't be though that isn't saying there won't and the current margin is the lowest for 5? years and equivalent to that contributed by one generator alone, Drax. Now Drax isn't going to fall over but I'm told that the smaller the margin is, the greater the risk is that problems will propagate. There is also a Regional dimension to demand and supply as @katnyps post implies. I expect there was some contortions before the 'confident there shouldn't or wouldn't' wording I read reported was chosen. I doubt they could have made an announcement that said NG were less than confident given their corporate role and the press and politicals ructions that would cause in the context of the HGC, CO2, livestock and other issues though that is speculation on my part. Still, energy prices, they're the important thing.

Still, energy prices, they're the important thing

Because that is a real thing not the end point of an anxiety spiral.

I assume if they happen lots of us will adjust and cope and the vulnerable will struggle and it will be shit. My mum is 78 but she's got a log burner thank fuck.

@katnyps the family member inside and I know it's anecdata said it was linked to the decisions about closing coal generation after their owners running the allowed hours of operation quickly and this preceded Brexit. That, linked to the problems with some of the nuclear stations refurbishment or extension has reduced the margin.

Still, no point posting further about 'the highly unlikely event of an unplanned outage caused by a very unlikely shortage' as some wise arbiter will see it as catastrophising or participating in an anxiety spiral.