What's this talk about the Russians and the possibility of war breaking out.

[Justdowhatyouweretold]

I've read a few rumblings about the Russians and the about how war could break out in a matter of weeks.

I need some mumsnetters who are much more clever than me to explain it, and tell me that's it's all nonsense!! Please?

If they did decide to annex Ukraine would anyone do anything about it? Could anyone?

In reality what would happen (most likely) is...

• Lots of noise at NATO and the UN and from various Govts

• Trade sanctions

• Deployment of troops to borders alongside Ukraine to flex muscles back

• Massive attempts to de-escalate behind the scenes

No-one wants a war between Russia and the EU and/or US. Including Russia.

This has literally been an on again, off again flexing of Russian muscle for the home audience for a loooooooong time. We've probably been in this same position, having these same discussions at least half a dozen times over the past 10 years.

I mean...Ukraine is desperate to be a member of NATO and hasn't been given membership (it's just dangled like a potential future carrot)...

This is because NATO come to the defence of any members who are attacked and so, it would be very difficult for NATO members if Ukraine were admitted and then Russia played up.

@wheresmymojo

Russia are basically that tosser that lives on your cul-de-sac that everyone wishes would fuck off and move because otherwise it's pretty peaceful.

Every so often they pull a dick move like have a party during lockdown and everyone gets stirred up, throws them dirty looks and no-one invites them to the Christmas drinks party but equally they quiet down for a bit after because they don't want the aggro of everyone on their back and no-one does more than passive aggressive tuts in their direction because they're quite a big guy and no-one wants to get into a bigger fight.

Put so much better than I did and a brilliant explanation about how they like to flex and see if anyone will stand up to them - whilst secretly hoping no one does actually have a bigger and tougher brother they may invite over for the day!

It's the Chinese I think are more prone to war. They are probably going to invade Taiwan. And something else going on in Myanmar.

@wheresmymojo

I mean...Ukraine is desperate to be a member of NATO and hasn't been given membership (it's just dangled like a potential future carrot)...

This is because NATO come to the defence of any members who are attacked and so, it would be very difficult for NATO members if Ukraine were admitted and then Russia played up.

Also because Russia is increasingly prickly about having both the EU and NATO getting closer and closer. It is losing trading partners as they fall into the EU single market or Association agreements leading to membership and also having to put up with Nato members assembling troops and rocket launchers on its border (Estonia for example).

They are not just a grizzly bear lashing out for the sake of it. They are feeling increasingly threatened.

@Horehound

It's the Chinese I think are more prone to war. They are probably going to invade Taiwan. And something else going on in Myanmar.

China are a lot scarier than Russia. I thought it quite brave of certain British MPs to criticise them as they really do not like it and you don't know what they might in retaliation.

@Horehound

It's the Chinese I think are more prone to war. They are probably going to invade Taiwan. And something else going on in Myanmar.

I have to say I'm not very familiar with China's take on things.

Do you think they really would invade?

I always tend to think that the dynamic of Russia & China v. EU, UK & US means that we'll have constant rumblings of potential trouble and proxy wars in the Middle East but never actual war because it's too evenly matched and both sides know that any war would be equally horrendous for both sides.

I always tend to think that the dynamic of Russia & China v. EU, UK & US means that we'll have constant rumblings of potential trouble and proxy wars in the Middle East but never actual war because it's too evenly matched and both sides know that any war would be equally horrendous for both sides. = basically Syria. Spot on.

Agree China is a bigger threat.

Especially since we have HK residents an easier path to citizenship to protect against their increasing power of control there (simple version!)

Putin is just like the kid in the playground who needs to be centre of attention and creates drama when others also have things going on or attention.

He needs to feel everyone remembers Russia is there and is fearful of their presence in the world.

I always tend to think that the dynamic of Russia & China v. EU, UK & US means that we'll have constant rumblings of potential trouble and proxy wars in the Middle East but never actual war because it's too evenly matched and both sides know that any war would be equally horrendous for both sides.

Absolutely.

I'm more worried about China - the UK (and allied) governments are actively making preparations for war and have even told us as much. They have also told us that "grey zone" warfare may be already underway. Have a google of the situation between India and China if you feel you've just been sleeping too well lately.

Brexit Covid Suez War cupboard. That cupboard sure is washing it's own face.

I think constant gray zone warfare with Russia & China is basically how it's going to be for the foreseeable future.

Until something happens that causes some kind of huge destabilisation like the breakdown of the EU (hopefully not), a huge swing in focus of a major player (thankfully post-Trump this is less likely) or (more likely) geopolitical impacts of the climate emergency.

@wheresmymojo - get yourself a tv show would you - I'll watch it

@wheresmymojo

Russia are basically that tosser that lives on your cul-de-sac that everyone wishes would fuck off and move because otherwise it's pretty peaceful.

Every so often they pull a dick move like have a party during lockdown and everyone gets stirred up, throws them dirty looks and no-one invites them to the Christmas drinks party but equally they quiet down for a bit after because they don't want the aggro of everyone on their back and no-one does more than passive aggressive tuts in their direction because they're quite a big guy and no-one wants to get into a bigger fight.

Totally spot on 😂

Also I am 46 and ever since I can remember Russia has been about to go to war with someone every couple of years according to the press. Putin has just made that a photo calendar opportunity too.

China is a far bigger threat to world peace than Russia.

A war with Russia would be the absolute last thing anyone would want at any time to be honest as it would be so horrifically destabilising for all involved, not to mention horrendously expensive so Russia would have to do something pretty full on to get a reaction from the EU or NATO that resulted in war

I remember during the Cold War there was a slogan in UK (and maybe elsewhere in Europe) ‘Better Red than Dead’ and presumably some on the left positively looked forward to being ruled by the Soviet Union.
However I can’t imagine many of those on the left today welcoming rule by Putin.