When will wave 3 hit ? May ?

[Lardlizard]

F’ing typical if it’s May half term

Christ cheer us up why don't you

One day at a time...

Not going to happen

If I were you I'd just concentrate on getting through your second wave.

No point wondering about the 3rd wave at this point.

I am not sure if historically there have been third waves? Thats a question btw

@TheoriginalLEM

Google says the Spanish Flu had three waves. The third wave was worse than the first wave, but not as bad as the second wave.

I think the third wave will be this time next year if we don't have a vaccine. This lockdown will carry on until Spring, we'll get a reprieve like last summer, then this time next year.
Just my guess.

Why do people post threads like this!

I reckon Feb half term op

Oh christ let's hope not. I have been wrong with most guesses so far but I think this wave will start fizzling out in spring and will have its worst over Dec and January. So I think more later in the year.

Who knows. I'm reasonably expecting to bin off 2021 too at this rate.

Eye roll

If we really wanted to make certain of no third wave, we'd take effective containment measures now. Get it over with. One proper lockdown is better than a repeated dragged out on off on off mess.

We'd need to restrict our borders properly and sort out our test, track, and trace.

Will we do it? I can't say I feel too confident but we can only hope.

Good article by Professor Devi Sridhar (one of the scientific experts advising the Scottish government):

Three paths for governments: ‘simmer’ virus & be stuck in lockdown/release cycles, do nothing & let it rip or aim for elimination with strong test/trace/isolation, good guidance to public & border measures. Two of the above paths lead to large economic costs; one less so.

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/01/suppress-covid-england-lockdown-east-asian-african

If the planes are flying, we are going, come hell or high water.

The health authority where I work has been predicting the second wave in January so this may not even be the second wave, just the end of the first.

We aren't in a second wave at the moment. A second wave would really be if the virus had naturally gone quiet and then had come back again in another season. This is just the same wave that started in March, artificially muted by lockdown and slowly creeping back up as we opened things up again. So a 'third wave' will be a few months after the end of the next lockdown. Whenever that may be. And so on...

More wise words from Prof Sridhar:
On 22 June- given we had largely crushed the curve- we could have maintained this through expanded testing & tracing and strict checks for re-importation of cases. That was the time to push numbers low & have a strategy of how to maintain them.

People might cry 'too expensive' to take containment measures. How much more expensive will it be if we rinse and repeat and end up in this same position - on the brink - several months down the line.
Perhaps we should stop with the false economy.

Prof Sridhar explains it:
Back in late Feb, a Chinese colleague said that with early action & an elimination strategy (stop transmission within borders), we could be past the worst by June. The UK response was ‘costs are too high.’ We are now into November & 2nd lockdown - cost with this approach?

Watch this and make up your own mind:

Or, for calm intelligent explanations from the experts (who use evidence and data to make their decisions), check out Professor Devi Sridhar on twitter. Look at the WHO also.

@WhenPushComesToShove

Not wasting 42 minutes watching some crackpot on YouTube.

When will wave 3 hit ? May ?

Jeez Louise
Please friggin stop lol, can we at least not get this lot over and done with yet?!

April.

@WhenPushComesToShove

What a load of Shite

@WitchesBritchesPumpkinPants
@WhenPushComesToShove

What a load of Shite

Is that to the youtube link? Didn't even bother clicking as know how that usually goes lol when just a link and nothing else.

@WhenPushComesToShove

So I caved and watched the first five minutes. He says:

"I'm calling out the claim that there is an ongoing pandemic as false. I would point anyone listening to this who wants to check to go to any data base that talks about total mortality, that is body count over time. And when you do that you will see that the number of deaths on average every day in the UK is absolutely bang on normal for this time of year. Not at all higher, in fact if anything it's slightly lower."

The Office of National Statistics publishes weekly statistics on the numbers of deaths registered in England and Wales:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/previousReleases

In Week 37 (ending 11/09/2020), the number of deaths registered was 5.4% above the five-year average (505 deaths higher).

In Week 38 (ending 18/09/2020), the number of deaths registered was 2.8% above the five-year average (259 deaths higher).

In Week 39 (ending 25/09/2020), the number of deaths registered was 2.8% above the five year average (259 deaths higher).

In Week 40 (ending 2/10/2020), the number of deaths registered was 4.1% above the five-year average (390 deaths higher).

In Week 41 (ending 9/10/2020), the number of deaths registered was 1.5% above the five-year average (143 deaths higher).

In Week 42 (ending 18/10/2020), the number of deaths registered was 6.8% above the five-year average (669 deaths higher).

...so I have checked, and sounds like he's talking complete nonsense.