The 300-year-old fertility statistics still in use today
"The data on which that statistic is based is from 1700s France. They put together all these church birth records and then came up with these statistics about how likely it was [someone would] get pregnant after certain ages."
These are women who had no access to modern healthcare, nutrition or even electricity. Why would any researcher think they can tell us something useful about modern-day fertility?
Well, actually, they do have one big advantage. They weren't using effective methods of birth control.
...
The main problem with the historic data, in James's view, is that the women may not have been trying to conceive.
Indeed, they may have been actively trying to avoid becoming pregnant. They may not even have had intercourse.
...
Another finding of the Dunson study was that, while fertility declines with age, it does not appear to do so as quickly as we have been led to believe.
Among women aged 27-34, the study showed that 86% will have conceived within a year of trying. So the 82% figure for women aged 35 to 39 is only a little lower.
....
After that, the picture is a little less clear.
"It would appear from the limited and poor quality data that we have that that rate falls significantly [at 40].
..
And, he adds, there is evidence that female fertility is improving.