Would Wales survive as an independent country?

[AdoptedBumpkin]

Recently I have seen a couple of articles about a rise in support for Welsh independence. A few years ago I would have thought it fanciful, but there are many less populated independent countries, including within Europe.

For them to at least keep their current economic status, they would need to make some very quick trade deals with Westminster and the EU, and perhaps eventually join the EU if the Welsh public wanted it by whichever time.

With my admittedly limited knowledge, I would estimate that the industrial areas in the south would potentially be fine, but some areas further north and west would be very reliant on farming and/or tourism. Am I talking rubbish or would it be viable?

No, not even close.

Welsh GDP was about £62 billion, pre-Covid, from 3.1 million people. That is two thirds of the GDP per head of England.

The Welsh social care budget is almost 12% of the whole.
And Welsh education is a mess so the next generation will find it hard to improve things.

Regarding Wales voting for Brexit, an independent research team discovered it was actually English retirees living in Wales that tipped the scales towards Brexit there www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/sep/22/english-people-wales-brexit-research. That’s really shitty in my opinion.

When the article and research came out, a lot of Welsh people felt vindicated and glad to learn that they hadn’t all voted for Brexit. But also they were rather pissed off at how much of an influence English foreigners had on their lives.

English foreigners

Ummmmmm that's not great phasing.

Phrasing, I'm not in the Marvel universe.

I used that term to indicate literally people who foreign to Wales who are English.

There are over 100 other independent countries in the world that are smaller than Wales.

Wales is the fifth largest exporter of electricity in the world. So the 22.7 TWh of currently exported electricity a wholesale price of £64.76 per MWh (that’s a millionth of a TWh) could be worth millions to the Welsh economy, if the assets were owned by the people.

Wales' present export of water to England, from the Elan Valley to Birmingham and from Lake Vyrnwy and Tryweryn to Liverpool, could be worth as much as £4.5 billion a year.

But the main question is, if all the other small countries manage to be independent what is it about the people of Wales that means we’re incapable of running our own country? It can't be worse than being a part of the UK that has the biggest budget deficit in the developed world.

It’s the non-tax payers.

There’s just too many of them.

if all the other small countries manage to be independent what is it about the people of Wales that means we’re incapable of running our own country?

It's not about being capable or not. It's a cost:benefit thing. If you look at the smallest countries and ignore the départements of France and other dependencies, you have a few Pacific islands, dirt poor and tourism reliant. Then tax havens. Caribbean island nations (islands make sense as small countries). A few of the poorer Central American countries, then up to ones at a comparable size to Wales, poorest EU countries.

Basically they relay on tax haven status, tourism, being dependent on other countries (either as dependencies or trade blocs) or they have assets (like oil). Or you can be dirt poor. And independent. Which is a choice.

Per capita GDP below Bulgaria and just above Belarus. It doesn't bode well for services.

You'd have to question why certain areas in the UK are not as developed as others or the economy of the area as vibrant. This doesn't happen by accident, but by relative neglect.

Even if Wales became legally independent it would difficult to be practically independent given how much of its economy depends on trade with England.

A hard border between Wales and England would be disastrous for Wales.

This doesn't happen by accident, but by relative neglect.

I agree. But becoming a rich, small country is exceptionally difficult. Damned either way unfortunately.

If the EU would agree to just take Scotland and Wales no waiting, it would be very different.

I think it would, but there is nowhere near enough support, and Mr Johnson will never agree to a referendum in any case.

Uhm .... Not all Nordic Countries have oil but they thrive better than U.K. ..... I believe Wales would be way better for Independence, it has been massively failed by U.K. Govts decade after decade. Could the Welsh People really make it any worse? I believe as I believe for Scotland when the responsibility is on you, you are more likely to step up for yer kin. And England too would fair better by not being surrounded by other countries to blame when Westminster fails the English. Just my thoughts. ❤️

Wasn't there a trial of some sort of wave turbine for green energy in Cardiff Bay, which was looking promising til WM shut it down?

Tidal lagoon in Swansea. I'm still very sad this didn't get the go ahead.

@NotDavidTennant

Even if Wales became legally independent it would difficult to be practically independent given how much of its economy depends on trade with England.

A hard border between Wales and England would be disastrous for Wales.

Why would it be disastrous for Wales? Is the reasoning that English people wouldn't cross to do business? Or that some businesses would from Wales to England? This is a genuine question, BTW.

Because duties and tariffs and passport control would kill trade and tourism.

Yes to the tidal lagoon, what a farce.

I laugh at the way people criticise "the Assembly" etc. First of all it's the Government who are in charge in that sense, and it's a labour government so they are not in favour of Welsh independence.

Secondly, well, Cardiff is the capital of Wales. So it kind of is the heart?

I honestly thought it was possible, there would probably be an end to the free prescriptions. Then Wales wanted out of the EU, and now I don't think they would manage. Not for a long time and not without a lot of changes.

I was shocked when I visited Cardiff. An awful run down city that’s almost like a suburban town.

Part of the problem for both Wales and Scotland would be having to take a share of the national debt if they become independent. It is a national debt and not an English debt and so would have to be shared. With that both would probably struggle to meet the requirements to be admitted to the EU. Therefore, both would be small countries that aren't part of a trading bloc, aren't tax havens and (Wales) doesn't have oil/gas.

The primary issue is their extremely, extremely poor leadership and governance. So bad it's amateur.

That’s going a bit far, re: Cardiff!

Cardiff is one of the very few areas of Wales to have had a bit of investment in it!

Imagine what you’d think if you went for a drive round Porth or Pontycummer, or something.

No. Im welsh 100%. Rural and living on a small holding.

We do not support independence. Financially it would be a disaster!

I am mulling it over. I live in an area that has changed year on year, as more and more English people retire here, or move here because they can get cheaper houses than in Cornwall. I am sick of local house prices being driven up by more affluent outsiders who then can vote on things that affect a country and culture they have no respect for. Many English incomers look down on Welsh people and the Welsh language. I am starting to feel like an outsider in my own country.
If an independent Wales could stop this and bring in some regulations to protect our area so that our children will be able to buy houses, I would be all for it.

@Shallowsubmarine

I was shocked when I visited Cardiff. An awful run down city that’s almost like a suburban town.

That’s not my experience of Cardiff. I take it you didn’t go to the Bay or the St David’s Centre.