Do you think this pandemic will end in the near future?

[outofthemoon]

I can't imagine how this will end, seeing the news, the lack of vaccine hope, the state of the US. It seems so hopeless.

What’s the latest on the Oxford or any vaccine?

I think several candidates (including Oxford/Astrazeneca) have passed phase I trials and are now being tested in a phase III setting. Passing phase I means the vaccines are not obviously harmful and they create some sort of ability of host blood samples to respond to SARs-CoV-2 proteins in vitro (ie in lab tests). Some of these compare favourably to blood from convalescent patients in this regard. I think the earliest we'll find out whether any of the vaccines work or not will be September.

The pandemic will end, but the virus is probably here to stay and we will have to be vaccinating the vulnerable annually

Being really honest I think it won’t end as such, people will just think of it like a more deadly strain of flu and we will just learn to ignore it as such. That seems to be what’s happening where I live. Everyone is just fed up with it all now. (I’m in the clinically vulnerable shielding category).

I do. I'm not convinced on a cure-all vaccine but I think, as for many people it's not a serious illness, all the research will find better and better ways of treating it and it will become less dangerous. And then it will just become another illness we can catch, though sadly just like the flu and pneumonia, it will still be an illness people die from.

Though sadly I know this is a first world perspective, with money for healthcare, and we'll still have to work as a global society to combat it in other areas.

When people say 'learn to live with it' realistically that means risk it. Schools really can't operate in 'bubbles' indefinitely. I am working from home, but I miss the office and it's not as efficient, however hard we try. In London particularly, public transport is not an option. The lives of young people heading to university, first jobs, seem to be on hold. I don't see how this can go on much longer.

Interesting TheWhalrus thanks

I think it will be mid summer next year before we get back to close to ‘normality’. Looking at previous pandemics, they tend to last 18 or so months after a few waves and I don’t see why this would be different. I’m fully anticipating a pretty miserable winter, but then hope again during spring/summer next year. I’m trying to enjoy the freedom we have at the moment (within the rules of course) as I genuinely think that once the weather turns and people start huddling inaide again, it will come back.

But it won’t last forever. There was not a vaccine for Spanish Flu and that only lasted a year or two so I don’t think we’ll be living our lives like this forever!

I think the signs are good for a vaccine. There are over 130 in various stages of development. I refuse to believe at least one won’t work. Lets just hope it’s sooner rather than later.

I agree with a pp though. It may not be a one dose fixes all vaccine. Yearly boosters maybe, or perhaps it will be one that works 70-80% of the time.....

Even with a vaccine though it will still be around. We’ve completely eliminated only one disease in history and it seems unlikely we’ll be able to do the same with this one. Having said that I’m also sure we will continue to become far more successful at treating it.

I can't imagine how this will end, seeing the news, the lack of vaccine hope, the state of the US. It seems so hopeless.

There's plenty of vaccine hope, we understand more about the vaccine all the time. Simple instant result tests will be a game changer in stopping the spread, medics are learning how to treat it better all the time, new drugs will become available to treat it, numbers are falling right now. There's plenty of positivity to be found.... it isn't hopeless at all!

yes of course it will end. All pandemics end eventually. I also dont think there'sba lack of vaccine hope. There is a lot of vaccine hope and i am confident, as others have said, there will be a few vaccines available in the next year or so. They probably won't work.for everyone and as other have said it will probably be a yearly or so vaccine but I certainly think there will be an end to it being a pandemic state.

@outofthemoon

I can't imagine how this will end, seeing the news, the lack of vaccine hope, the state of the US. It seems so hopeless.

I don't see the point in guessing when it might end but I'm old enough to the remember when we thought the same about HIV/AIDS and now you rarely hear about it.

Weighing in again, i'm not sure where the idea about needing booster vaccines comes from (this is a coronavirus not influenza, coronaviruses do not mutate rapidly like influenza does). It's not impossible that an annual vaccine would be needed but i'm not currently seeing why this should be the case. My feeling is there will be a vaccine, probably as early as later this year. The first vaccine may not confer 100% protection but might simply ward off the worst symptoms...nonetheless, these will likely buy time for better vaccines to be developed and for more research to take place.

And for those saying the Spanish flu went away without a vaccine, you are correct. Nonetheless, somewhere between 10 million and 100 million people died first. Official global COVID-19 deaths are currently

TheWhalrus could it be more to do with immunity wearing off than mutation?

Kings research person on R4 suggesting yearly as immunity may be short-lived for some but vaccine will use peak time period as uniform dose

It is currently below the level required to call it an "epidemic" in the UK and much of Europe. The pandemic continues in other countries though, such as the US and India.

Oh that's interesting @FrugiFan what are the cut off levels?

MarshaBradyo....yes, immunity wearing off might be possible.
I would hope not to the extent that an annual booster is needed however. If that were the case I would not feel particularly confident in that vaccine in the first place (it would imply durable immunity to SARS-CoV-2 wasn't acquired in the first place)

@outofthemoon

When people say 'learn to live with it' realistically that means risk it. Schools really can't operate in 'bubbles' indefinitely. I am working from home, but I miss the office and it's not as efficient, however hard we try. In London particularly, public transport is not an option. The lives of young people heading to university, first jobs, seem to be on hold. I don't see how this can go on much longer.

Schools aren’t really operating in bubbles at all though in September. Bubbles of 120/270 aren’t bubbles-all it means is slightly staggered starts/ends and using different exits, with some extra hand washing.

Public transport is an option-Boris is desperately trying to get people back on the tube.

DC and all their friends are heading off to University in September.

There is quite a lot of normal going on really.

Tbh TheWhalrus I hope you’re right, you sound knowledgeable and positive so I’m appreciating your posts.

Unless the bit where you say it makes you less confident re a vaccine comes to fruition, then not so positive (but I hope not the case).

BTW...just found this in the guardianwww.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/jul/13/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker-how-close-are-we-to-a-vaccine. Its a tracker of the various vaccine candidates. My money's on Oxford university/Astrazeneca (they provided the first effective Ebola vaccine, for example) although i've also heard good things about the BioNTech/Fosun Pharma/Pfizer candidate. This was the company Donald Trump tried to bribe for exclusive access...not sure whether that counts as an endorsement of sorts?