When do you think we will see most job losses due to COVID19?

[DreamChaser23]

Of the 7m plus jobs furloughed atm how many do you think will be eventually lost? I can easily see 4M plus being made redundant during the whole crisis.

I have a feeling it might be after August when the government wants the employer to start contributing to wages.

Also it is possible after October as furlough will probably be eventually phased out or only put in place for limited sectors..

I expect it will be in August when companies have to start contributing and find they cant or it's pointless as they're not making money.

DP and I are furloughed and we're bracing ourselves. DP is with a travel insurance company so we're very certain his job will be gone. I work in fundraising and people don't donate when times are hard.

I have no idea. Not everyone that is furloughed will lose their job. Also depends when the hospitality and beauty industries can get up and running again.

Why do you ask? Are you worried for your own job?

When employers have to contribute, for small optimistic businesses I think maybe 2 months after that if things aren’t back to normal and money isn’t coming in.

It’s so sad. I suspect they’ll hold out as long as possible but it will all depend on whether they get the business. If business goes back to normal pretty fast it will be ok I imagine. I suspect that’s not the reality though and redundancy’s will be inevitable 😢

When furlough ends, or just before. It's going to be a hard Christmas for a lot of people.

Some of those furloughed, are people who could still work but the organisation has decided they will cut that overhead for the time being and claim. DH’s work is a prime example, they’ve furloughed most of their junior staff. The junior member of staff in DH’s team has just been brought back, despite the fact that they were busy enough to use the junior. However, if redundancies are to be made then the organisations structure is very management heavy and I imagine there would be some reductions there but those redundancies won’t be until the end of the year, maybe even next year.

I think there will be a number of temporary and seasonal workers this year, as industries recruit extra numbers due to the situation and deal with the backlog. For example, NHS, possibly education, retail (food shops), agriculture. I think you will start to see the decline of those short term contracts towards the end of this year. I think you will also get public sector cuts from next April as the government tries to claw the money back.

In the short term, you will see a lot of job losses in hospitality, travel and leisure. Not all these job losses will be felt immediately though because of the increase in temporary roles in other fields. Hopefully, as we’re starting to see the loss of those temporary roles, is when you’ll start to see hospitality bounce back a bit. I think to accurately measure the amount of job losses, you will need to look over a number of years and look at those who moved from permanent roles to temporary roles. I think not all of those who are furloughed will lose their job but I think a number of people who haven’t been furloughed will still lose their job.

Sunaks been quite clever, by asking for employer contributions from August, only those employers who can realistically see a need for their staff will keep them on, and then Sunak us off the hook as it will be the employers decision to make them redundant.

A lot of businesses wont be viable soon, either directly impacted by social distancing, or supply/associated with those industries.

Also no one, business or individual consumers, is spending now due to fear.