Fast forward to 30 June

[fourpeasinapod]

Let’s fast forward to 30 June, do you think the lockdown will be gone seeing as that will be the initial 3 month period up?

We need to either find a vaccine or generate herd immunity. Either way this virus is here to stay, lockdown is not sustainable long term so we need to learn to live with it.

Or find effective treatments, There is no HIV vaccine or herd immunity but it can be treated pretty effectively

There is huge differences between lockdown , living like we used to, and finding ways to live with the virus whilst waiting for treatment or vaccine.

A sufficiently long lockdown could enable us to do the latter quite successfully , with very well controlled death rates because of the very low chance of anyone catching it . That I would see as the best possible outcome in a bad situation

I'm already seeing people having lockdown fatigue: people who were initially adhering to the rules, who are now nipping to the shop more often etc. Hell I've done it myself once.
We're social animals, this is very unnatural for us. An exit plan needs to emerge pretty soon. If people are handed a small bit of freedom they will be more inclined to observe other measures.

June 30th?
My (complete speculation) predictions:
Shops back open but operating with limited capacity inside (like supermarkets are)
Schools.....maybe. Students on part time rotas or just some year groups.
Some restaurants back open but with more take away options - so for example MacDonalds - drive thru or take away only (and spaced out, limited in at a time) - likewise possibly more non fast-food doing collection take aways eg Pizza Express
“Open Air” summer events restarting in a new format - so open air cinema for example, but with a much small capacity. And possibly marked out areas on the floor to ensure social distancing.
Lots and lots of floor markers! Everywhere!
Still no overseas holidays. Unlikely any U.K. holidays either

@Awwlookatmybabyspider it will never go,not now. We just need to find a way to live with it

It’s not possible to lockdown until as scientists need people to catch the virus in order to check that the vaccines are working. For ethical reasons, vaccines trials don’t deliberately infect people. Instead they do a randomised trial, where some of the volunteers are injected with the coronavirus vaccine, and others with another vaccine. The trial waits until a trigger level of people reporting virus symptoms has been reached and then checks whether they are all from the group given the ‘dummy’ vaccine.

If the virus is stopped due to lockdown, this point may not be reached. This is why there is not a vaccine for SARS - the virus died away before they could test whether the vaccine worked.

If the virus spreads faster, the trigger level is reached more quickly.

I do think though that the politicians will want to be getting businesses, such as shops, started again by end of June. Otherwise the welfare cost will be astronomical. The amount of people who could end up jobless as businesses bankrupt and could therefore end up loosing their homes......its hard enough to get “affordable” housing or HA/council as it is. They will want to get people moving again, even if we need to get physically spread out

I hope lock down isn't over until Covid has well and truly slung its hook.

Good luck with that!

Not going anywhere, there will be millions of cases world wide we do t even know about.

Treatments will hopefully improve as people learn more, but anyone who thinks this is going away and we won’t all get it at some point is living in a parallel universe.

Lockdown is about slow the spread. Eradication isn’t going to happen

Anyone thinking we will all get this at some point is living in a parallel universe, or perhaps not in the UK.

If everyone in the uk got the virus at a rate the NHS could cope with, it takes more than 10 years

If we listen to what they tell us every briefing the plan is

To get the numbers infected low and keep R below 1 ( not at all consistent with everyone getting it)
Through a mixture of social distancing and test and trace

The plan is not let everyone get it

I am in lockdown with my dp who I do not actually live with. We decided to lockdown together rather than not see each other for months. Bloody hell i now know why we live separately although it is all manageable.
June 30 th - I hope very much to be back in my own home. Assume I will still be disinfecting everything like a good un etc. Frankly I can’t imagine going to a theatre or gig or restaurant or lib for a long time even though I usually used to go out 3 or 4 times a week. I think I personally will be ultra cautious longer than lockdown lifting indicates. i realised only recently that lifting lockdown is all about allowing the virus to behave in certain ways rather than us !

We won't be back to normal for the foreseeable future, certainly not in June. Numbers, facts and statistics aside, I don't think the public would support it as a significant majority seem absolutely terrified, and any government that suggests easing lockdown is sure to lose the next election.

I really how things will go back to normal. But I dont think it will. Even if they do say kids can return to school in June, I am keeping mine off as two of my four children are in the vulnerable category. I will keeping them home until I really see a drop in the numbers and no new cases happening. I think it could be right up until maybe even beginning of next year before we see normality. I am just trying to stay positive and optimistic tbh

I see no point in sending schools back in the last few weeks of term. May as well keep them off

Reasons for going back for a couple of weeks:

Children that are leaving get to say goodbye and round things off.

Children get to touch base with friends and teachers and feel reassured that everybody's ok so they can relax a bit and enjoy their summer.

School staff get a chance to spend time with kids and check that there are no concerns about home life before the summer holidays begin.

Children in abusive situations have a chance to confide in somebody.

Parents get some sort of respite if only for. Couple of weeks.

(All mental rather than physical health considerations but they still matter)

Plus, it gives the govt a chance to see what letting children mix does to the figures in a controlled way because they have a natural break after a couple of weeks anyway.

If all seems well then permission could be given for some small group childcare schemes to run over the summer which will mean that parents can work and this will support the economy.

I'm a teacher and despite some minor health concerns I'm hoping for two or three weeks in school before the summer begins for those reasons.

Schools will be open all summer anyway for key worker children so makes sense to start a phased return for everyone else too.

I hope lock down isn't over until Covid has well and truly slung its hook.

It's a lovely idea but it's not going to 'sling it's hook', it's going to be around just like flu and colds are around and we're going to have to get used to that.

Schools will be open all summer anyway for key worker children so makes sense to start a phased return for everyone else too

I like to think that they'll allow some play schemes and clubs to meet this purpose. Otherwise there's a whole load more people who will lose out on their normal income.

By then, I can't see why playschemes and clubs shouldn't be allowed to start opening provides they have social distancing plans in place.

I totally agree @stuckindoors77

@stuckindoors77 well hopefully things have improved enough and schools are able to open before the summer holidays.

Would it be a possibility that schools may not even be able to return in September either?

Thing is, Europe have had much stricter lockdown conditions than we did and they’re only just starting to relax those to the degree ours are at.

Spain for e.g.allowed no exercise and no children outside,they’ve only just been allowed out.

As for holidays, tbh I think it’s irresponsible to book a holiday abroad for the foreseeable future,and I’m not sure other countries would want us going there anyway and potentially taking the virus back in with us, or vice versa...

I also think that getting travel insurance will be nearly impossible,and if there is another peak people run the risk of being stuck in another country and then expecting the government to bail them out.

On the plus side though no foreign travel could mean a huge benefit to the UK tourist industry.

I’m starting to think schools will reopen in some form ahead of summer.

Particularly if it allows nurseries and holiday play schemes to open up as childcare for younger children has the greatest impact on parents ability to work.

Also makes sense for Y10 and Y12 to minimise impact on exam years.

I really hope some restrictions will be lifted by then.

30th June is my birthday! I'll be pissed up in the garden wearing a crown and singing Neil Diamond songs on the karaoke.

I think lockdown will still be going on, in less strict conditions. Schools will be open for specific students/years and movement will be on the increase but with places like pubs, gyms, bars and restaurants still very limited.

@FudgeBrownie2019 that sounds like a good birthday plan - can I come?! Oh wait, forgot we are in a pandemic