How many non-CV lives will be saved due to lockdown?

[Coldemort]

Just pondering whether we will see a spike in deaths due to the effects of lockdown in other aspects:
Less people will get seasonal flu and other infectious illnesses
Less car accidents
Less drinking/drug related violence
Less sports accidents
Possibly less stress without the commute etc?
What do you think?

It's going to be very interesting looking at the data across a lot of fields after this, including air pollution.

Talking of which, did anyone catch this marvellous article about the correlation between the politics of the English monarchy and air pollution in the Alps?

Thomas Becket: Alpine ice sheds light on medieval murder
www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52095694

Won't somebody think of the headlice?!

No (few) children at schools. All those poor lice stuck in one household, having lost the chance to travel and see the world. Poor things.

I think the lives saved will be balanced out by lives lost as a consequence of the lockdown (other than ones directly caused by Covid 19).

I’ve heard that our local hospitals are stopping all non-emergency treatments. And that they’re including things like chemotherapy and cancer surgeries as non-emergency treatment.

There’s going to be deaths caused by delays in treatment because the hospitals are diverting all the resources they can towards Covid 19.

Recessions apparently reduce the death rate due to lower alcohol consumption and a related lower death rate (fewer car accidents and street brawl and less domestic violence). This is a more complicated mix and we probably won't know all the impacts for years. It's both fascinating and incredible. And we won't know which lifestyle changes will last the longest, those of us who have still been earning throughout this will probably all want a nice holiday at the end of it but those who have lost their jobs won't be able to afford one. These kind of events are devastating if you are directly affected but many people are currently a bit inconvenienced but not in dire straits. Hopefully that will be the experience of the majority.

And we won't know which lifestyle changes will last the longest

DM battled with her weight after becoming practically addicted to sweets when they were de-rationed in 1954. Quite a few did. But then as Keith Richards noted in his recollections, loads of kids were pretty lean if not skinny because of wartime rationing. Although it seems the did their best to offset that with smoking.

Flu season is over.

Yes but how many other deaths will there be due to CV quarantine?
I'm not sure why they decided to save some but not others. Why are the old and vulnerable more important than others?
My young fit healthy intelligent little boy tried to kill himself yesterday but as long as the old and vulnerable are OK eh?!

Then reading that even if a vaccination becomes available people wouldn't get it. It's bloody ludicrous being locked away then.

Mychitchatdays that's horrendous- how is your boy now? What support have you and he got?

Mychitchatdays

@Mychitchatdays that’s awful, I hope you manage to find him some support.

My DM will be a CV victim. She’s self isolating and terrified but if CV doesn’t get her, her cancer likely will.

Expect suicides to soar - the impending financial meltdown will affect us as a population more than the virus (nb every death is a private tragedy, I'm talking about at a macro level)

Talking of which, did anyone catch this marvellous article about the correlation between the politics of the English monarchy and air pollution in the Alps?

What a fascinating article, Perking!
I wonder if any significant differences in air pollution are evident during the periods when the Plague/Black Death was prevalent here?

I'd love to know too, Watcher!

Meanwhile, we can actually help with more recent records. The Met Office has a project to digitise rainfall records back the 1820s.

www.zooniverse.org/projects/edh/rainfall-rescue

The Rainfall Rescue Project needs volunteers to transcribe handwritten rainfall records which have now been scanned.

Although apparently they've had a lot of volunteers already. Seems a lot of people have time on their hands...

Self-isolation proves a boon to rainfall project
www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52040825

(For anyone who wants a bit of meaningful activity and escapism, there are plenty more transcription projects at Zooniverse: www.zooniverse.org/projects)

There will be more deaths because of lockdown than because of CV. But it’s a balancing act.

Suicides will increase due to the impact on finances and the economy.

People won’t be diagnosed with serious conditions because surgeries are closed and referrals aren’t happening.

People with existing conditions won’t receive the follow-up treatments they need.

I have a serious heart condition and my appointment tomorrow will be done via phone. No ECG, no blood tests to make sure the drugs I’m on aren’t killing my liver and my lungs (side effect vs benefit) no echo to see whether my heart is still stable, all they have to go on is how I feel.

And my pacemaker appointment in May likely won’t happen meaning they can’t test the device to ensure it’s still working properly.

Transplants will reduce to almost 0, which is a positive for the potential donors but a negative for potential recipients because when we come through this many will have to stay on the list longer than they otherwise would and will die. I will be one of them. Well enough not to be on the list at the moment but I don’t foresee that it will happen any time soon when the time comes, and a transplant is my only hope of a long-term future.

But if I catch CV I will almost certainly die so it’s a case of which one gets me first.

Just thinking about my daily routine, less likely to be rushing and fall down stairs, I live next to a building site that’s now close so less chance of fallen masonry or being run over by plant machinery. Less likely to get run down or fall down the steps at the station. Less likely to get injured on a train, less likely to be mugged in the street, less likely to get hit by a sign (it happened in Glasgow during a storm, the M&S sign came down on someone)....although more people are injured by trousers each year than by cars so not wearing normal clothes is also cutting my accident potential.