Australian bushfires

[Theknacktoflying]

Is anyone else absolutely floored by the info coming from Sydney that almost 480 million animals, birds and reptiles have died.

The loss of human life, the loss of homes and habitat is quite something.

What a way to begin 2020

We have been having bad fires in Australia since October. This is not normal. 'Fite season's is usually at its peak in February. This is so early.

Sometimes it’s better to look at data than relying on our memories.

(I also remember stinking hot summers, living on the land in times of drought, etc. But to pretend it isn’t getting worse is both denying facts and ignoring people like my parents and cousins who are at the sharp end of drought, fire and other extreme conditions and are saying it’s never been this bad.)

Is there evidence that the fires in Oz are due to climate change?

All that smoke in densely populated areas must present a public health concern, surely?

Reversely, here in the UK, it feels like we have had the wettest autumn and Christmas in the South East and it is really mild compared to Christmases 10-15 years ago.

It all sounds so worrying.

Yes, at a certain age your memory obviously can’t be relied on.

That graph is averages. I’m not disputing that at all. I’m disputing this ‘summer has never been this hot/ we’ve never had fires like this/ never been this dry/ never had water restrictions like this’ bollocks. Utter rubbish.

Won’t dispute winters are now far far warmer than they used to be. Which would, you know, push up an average. That’s why the graph looks like that. Yes, maybe there is an issue causing this aspect, not saying there isn’t but don’t pull the too old to remember rubbish. In fact, here’s another golden memory - sitting outside in one of those blue tarp, metal frame children’s wading pools (shin deep). Even in 40+ heat it was better than being inside the house which would resemble an oven. Grandfather, grandmother, mum, dad, siblings crammed in. Covered by a beach umbrella stuck in the completely dead lawn (you know, the drought and water restrictions we never had back then), with ash raining down. Everyone fighting over whether we should try and get the dog in the pool as well. Common sense won out as the majority of adults voted its claws may rip the tarpaulin then we’d all be stuffed.

I also had a partner about 35 years ago who’s friends brought a house out in the bush. Middle of nowhere. Banged on about being at one with nature and how great it would be. Supposedly it was great until their house burned down in a bushfire less than 2 years later. They were stunned. Everyone else thought it was lucky they got 2 years out of it.

About hazard reduction burns - my friend is fairly high up in the fire service and she said that in the past there was an endless series of continual hazard burns all the time, which did help to keep the load smaller.

But she said there were so many complaints about smokey days caused by the hazard burns, plus people saying it was so bad for health, bad for the environment that this was cut back on.

Australian bush is designed to burn, that’s how it regenerates. The aboriginals know this and have managed it in the past, but now we just let it grow and grow, live in the middle of it, and then are surprised when it burns down our houses.

It just isn’t as easy as saying: climate change has caused the bush fires. It’s so much more nuanced than that. There’s a huge combination of factors which contribute, and probably climate change is one of them. But it doesn’t need to be THAT hot for bush fires - so it isn’t as simple as saying hotter climate equals more bush fires.
You need periods of wet weather to allow growth, then dry weather for a long time to dry the growth out, you need hot windy days, you need a spark (very often an arsonist), and you need there to have been minimal hazard reduction burns so there’s plenty left to burn.
And then you need houses in the middle of it.

it feels like we have had the wettest autumn and Christmas in the South East

Not just the South East, but everywhere. I live in South Yorkshire in an area that was very badly hit by the floods in November. Paul Hudson the weather man has confirmed that we have had the wettest autumn since records began. On our drive down to Wiltshire last week we passed loads of flooded fields and rivers that had burst their banks.

It seems so unfair that Australia is suffering like this while we have an excess of water here. It has got to be down to climate change.

Yes, at a certain age your memory obviously can’t be relied on

When I was 20 if my memory of an event or period when I was 10 or 15 differed from verifiable data, I’d accept that my memory was wrong. Because memory is notoriously fallible.

Nothing to do with age, don’t be ridiculous.

No one is saying that Australia hasn’t been hot before or hasn’t had extreme weather before. Christ, it’s part of our national mythology and narrative, right?

But these events are more frequent than before, last longer than before, are at unusual times and starting to be more extreme than before. Ash Wednesday was a byword for bushfire across the country for decades, because it was so rare.

Look at the temperature and heatwave records for Sydney, for example. Look at the amount of water that fell on the Brisbane and Lockyer Valleys in 2011 - absent Wivenhoe and a bit of luck when the last storm changed path and fell into a different catchment that would have eclipsed both 1974 and 1893.

And don’t preach to me about drought, please. No one has said ‘the droughts we never had.’ My family has lived on cattle properties through Australian droughts since the 1850s. I’ve lived it myself. While you were in your paddling pool under the umbrella I was hand feeding dying cattle.

The droughts we’re getting now are so much more extreme. Overland flow is less reliable even out of drought.

The fire season is longer and fire weather based on FFDI is more frequent. The oceans are warmer. Very warm night time temperatures that used to happen 2% of the time now happen 12% of the time.

Australia’s hottest summer on record was 2018-19. The previous hottest summer was 2012-13. It’s not just about winters - though they’re getting warmer and even drier, and that hurts too.

I want to contest whoever got sent home from school when it was hot! It was always the rumour that when it got to 40 we'd get sent home, but it never happened (getting sent home I mean, we had plenty of days get over 40).

This was in back in the 80s and early 90s

Cruddles, we definitely were and it was way earlier than the 80’s/90’s!

I lived in Sydney from 1998-2000 and was often told the summer had got hotter in the last 20 years.
We were aware of the the ozone layer then (that covered I think most of southern SE Australia) and the need to use extra suncream whatever the weather

It’s really awful so much destruction and suffering

It’s not just about winters - though they’re getting warmer and even drier, and that hurts too.

Yes, winters are a LOT warmer and drier and while I absolutely acknowledge it’s very odd and symptomatic of a change, from a purely personal perspective I’ll admit to not being displeased. Suits my ageing bones and avoids the death march north. A lot of older people migrated north to avoid the colder winters, no need now! Glass half full.

Not sure what the blurb about your dying cattle is meant to achieve - yes, you had bad droughts and extremely hot weather many decades ago. Same now. That’s exactly what I was saying .......

Not sure what the blurb about your dying cattle is meant to achieve - yes, you had bad droughts and extremely hot weather many decades ago. Same now. That’s exactly what I was saying .......

I was responding to your nonsense about ‘you know, the drought and water restrictions we never had back then’.

They are worse now. The data says so, the scientists say so, and the people having to cope with them say so. That’s the point.

How nice for you that you’re more comfortable in winter. I’ll let my folks and my friends in rural Queensland know, I’m sure that’ll soften the blow that a dry warm winter means.

I want to contest whoever got sent home from school when it was hot! It was always the rumour that when it got to 40 we'd get sent home, but it never happened (getting sent home I mean, we had plenty of days get over 40)

Yep never happened to me either, it was suck it up, school probably cooler buildings anyway.
One i went to as a kid had a pool which we got to use in the 40 plus heat as long as we had a towel and bathers at school or a kind mum who delivered lol
Now you need consent form after consent form like at DD school just for splash carnival or swimming lessons

In the 60s in Adelaide we got sent home if it was over 100f.

I was in Sydney 70-86 and we never got sent home from school b/c it hit the 104F (40C) we were told it was too hot to be in school. Once it got to 103.... that was notable.

I find it so worrying, especially about the number of people in the path of the fires. Thoughts are with everyone involved.

I'm amazed they're not cancelling the fireworks in Sydney just out of solidarity or the chance to get a crucial message out about the future of this world.

Do you really think the big harbour fireworks are going to significantly add to the pollution atm

Yes. You notice the smoke and smog in the air in the UK after the NYD fireworks. I can only imagine how much worse it must be in hot weather and when you already have pollution.

There have been some bans on sale of fireworks for personal use in Germany because of pollution (and upsetting animals) according to the Times today. Roll on similar bans in the UK.

However, given that the money has already been spent on the ones for Sydney, they might as well use them, unless they use them in the winter instead.

I’m in NSW, just at the base of the Blue Mountains in a town directly affected by the fires - last weekend we had ash and embers falling on us and starting spot fires, people in our town lost houses and I have friends and family members in the RFS and FRNSW.

Yes we’ve had hot before, and drought before and bushfires before but the general consensus is that the season has started earlier and it is the conditions (extremely hot and dry) that are exacerbating the fire conditions. The fire chiefs tried to meet with ScoMo in August/September to inform him that they couldn’t maintain their hazard reduction burns over winter due to the warm, dry, windy conditions but he kept putting them off.

We have been covered in hazardous smoke for nearly a month, and there is more and more evidence that this smoke is more hazardous than cigarette smoke.

Australia needs to have some hard, complex conversations and there is no easy answer and there is no one in government that really wants to have them which is going to cost us I think...

Right this minute there are 4000 people on the beach at Mallacoota, being told to get in the water to stay alive. Sky completely black at 10 am.

Oh my goodness

Have lived in the countryside a long time. People forget times like Ash Wednesday. Last summer was very mild compared to this December. We only had a few weeks of higher temps and it felt like summer didn't really start

^^

I beg to differ :

www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/climate-campus/australian-climate-change/australian-trends/

Saying the fires are caused by hazard reduction burns not happening due to "greenies complaining" is just a lie made up by the government and spread by the right wing media.

First, the greens only have one MP in the House of Reps and 9 in the senate, the government has 77 and 35. They have never been in power so they could not force a policy like this through. If it even was their policy - which it isn't!

In fact, the government has cut 10s of millions of $ from Fire and Rescue, Rural Fire Service and Parks and Wildlife. They have had to cut hundreds of staff and simply cannot do all the work they once did as a result. As well, climate change means many places are too hot and dry even in Winter to safely carry out back burning. These issues have been brought to the governments attention all year by RFS fire chiefs but they were ignored.

The people in Mallacoota are being told to go to the quayside and submerge themselves in the water if they hear a siren. It’s awful to read this and it must be absolutely terrifying.