I don't think the film will win - it's not very good by all accounts and it's not on general release.
LanaorAna2 You clearly have an insight into the Oscar nomination and voting process, not to say how the film industry works, that we need to hear.
Wait, no. You don't. You've not seen the film, and I doubt any of the 'all accounts' you cite have either. The film is difficult, powerful, and if you strip out the mob mentality and hysteria, well deserving of its place on the short list. And as ShatnersWig says, critically acclaimed.
General release, as in being screened in your local Vue or Odeon is not a requirement of this category, and neither is it a guarantee of quality.
As SaturdayNext says to those of you shouting "BOYCOTT" (and I said something similar earlier), you can't boycott the film, you would have to go a long way to find a screening. Are you regular film festival goers?