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AMA

I work in climate change - AMA

61 replies

JustInconvenient · 10/01/2020 17:00

Happy to answer any questions on climate change. Have been working in it for over a decade, on adaptation (dealing with the consequences of climate change) rather than mitigation (curbing greenhouse gas emissions).

Have nc'd in case any of this is outing, and answers on my job might be a bit vague as it's quite niche.

OP posts:
JustInconvenient · 12/01/2020 14:19

Where are the best/ safest places to live with regard to climate change - in the uk and worldwide ? Where would you definitely not want to live?

Currently temperate climates like the UK tend to fare ok in terms of global climate models - there will be impacts everywhere of course but it's all relative. I would be happy to move anywhere in northern Europe to be honest, avoiding low-lying areas where flooding from rivers or the sea would be a concern. Where would climate change put me off moving to? East coast of the US (particularly florida), sub-saharan Africa, South-east Asia, Australia.

How do you expect western countries to react to increasing numbers of climate refugees?

This is a good question and one I probably can't answer but I would hope that people far more important than me are looking into this as climate-driven migration is well researched and predicted. Looking at how we dealt with the recent migrant crisis, I don't feel particularly positive about there being a coherent strategy in place.

There is a village in Wales that will be decommissioned due to rising sea levels in 25 years time - are there other places already set to be abandoned?
www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/this-is-a-wake-up-call-the-villagers-who-could-be-britains-first-climate-refugees

What are the possibilities for low lying island states?

I'll answer these together as they're similar issues. I'm not aware of any other communities earmarked for abandonment in the UK but that's not to say there won't be in the future and Fairbourne is an interesting test case, albeit heart breaking for those involved. There's a whole host of of measures that can be considered to deal with sea level rise, from hard defences and restoring natural features through to land reclamation, but sometimes it becomes economically and environmentally unviable to keep protecting an area and you have to resort to relocation - this is what's happened in Fairbourne. It's not a decision that is taken lightly though due to the obvious human impact.

Same is true with low-lying island nations - there's some scope for adaptation in the short to medium term, but relocation will have to be considered as part of their long term outlook. I believe there's already active relocation plans for Tuvalu, Kiribati and parts of the Soloman Islands. There's a recent ipcc report which sets out the long term prognosis for low-lying coastal regions, it's quite technical in places but it's really thorough www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/chapter-4-sea-level-rise-and-implications-for-low-lying-islands-coasts-and-communities/ it also sets out some recommendations for governments to support people displaced by rising sea levels.

OP posts:
bluejelly · 12/01/2020 14:32

Interesting thread, thank you OP.
My question is: How do you maintain hope in the face of such a huge, frightening problem? Also what are your personal coping mechanisms?

JustInconvenient · 12/01/2020 19:30

How do you maintain hope in the face of such a huge, frightening problem? Also what are your personal coping mechanisms?

I try and keep it in context - there's lots of things in the world that are frightening/horrific and while this is a big one, there still are ways to keep it in check. I don't have any strong beliefs but I do think humans are a resourceful bunch and we'll find some way of coping with whatever the future holds. I think the thing that troubles me most is that it's going to expose/heighten existing inequalities, and some people are likely to lose out in a big way.

Personal coping mechanisms? For a long time I've kept my work at work and try to switch off outside with family, hobbies and interests etc, same as everyone else. I've made as many lifestyle changes as I can manage so far and am continuing to do so, while trying not to feel too guilty about the areas where I'm a bit lacking. More recently though I've been finding that keeping quiet in my private life isn't really an option I'm happy with any more (part of the reason for this thread).

OP posts:
TheMouldNeverBotheredMeAnyway · 12/01/2020 19:46

Why is UK still building homes in flood-prone areas, that are only going to flood more frequently in future? And not building them to withstand floods?
Are other countries making similar silly decisions or are we particularly poor planners?!
I have been reading about houses build to withstand floods on stilts etc and there is plenty we could be doing to reduce the risk of damage.

Are there any particular resources you recommend for investigating how climate change will affect different areas of the UK and other countries?

How do you think climate change can stop being a political issue, left v right, which I imagine leads to many right wing voters not taking it seriously?

anguilla · 12/01/2020 20:03

I work in renewable energy and am finding this thread really interesting. Have also name changed as I agree it is all a bit outing!

What do you think Brexit means for climate change? I haven't heard that DECC may return. Am waiting with dread to see what red tape is cut first. My experience of red tape in planning tends to be environmental legislation, would expect engineers to cite health and safety.

Ylvamoon · 12/01/2020 20:47

Thank you for answering my questions OP.
Its a great thread that makes interesting reading.

JustInconvenient · 12/01/2020 21:48

Why is UK still building homes in flood-prone areas, that are only going to flood more frequently in future? And not building them to withstand floods?
Are other countries making similar silly decisions or are we particularly poor planners?!
I have been reading about houses build to withstand floods on stilts etc and there is plenty we could be doing to reduce the risk of damage.

There's plenty of planning policy and guidance on where and how to build new houses with respect to flood risk, although as touched upon upthread, the planning system has generally gotten more relaxed under the current government. Sometimes, houses are built in areas at risk of flooding for a good reason, such as to secure funding for a defence scheme to protect a wider area. Other times they're located in at-risk areas as it's the most practical site, due to availability of land, avoiding the green belt, etc. Generally though it should be avoided as much as possible. Design standards exist for new houses in flood prone areas but this depends on the house actually being built as designed.

There's a lot of innovative design going on in housing around flood risk, and while houses on stilts are one option, they tend to work better in other cultures where acceptance of flood conditions is greater (e.g. south east asia). While a house on stilts might not flood internally, the loss of services (sewerage, safe access, refuse collection) would make them unfavourable in the UK, certainly with the way we tend to deal with things at present.

Are there any particular resources you recommend for investigating how climate change will affect different areas of the UK and other countries?

For the UK, the Committee on Climate Change are a good source of info on our progress, and the Adaptation Committee periodically publish our main climate risks in the climate change risk assessment, which is pretty accessible www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/preparing-for-climate-change/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/the-ccra-at-a-glance/ The Met Office website has some good info on climate and weather patterns as well as describing things that have already happened, but their resources can be a bit too technical for easy-reading.

At a global level, the IPCC reports give the best overview of what's going on, and they go into a tremendous amount of detail, so can be a bit tricky to read if you don't know what you're looking for. I would start with the headlines from the 5th assessment report www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ and go from there if you're feeling brave!

How do you think climate change can stop being a political issue, left v right, which I imagine leads to many right wing voters not taking it seriously?

Excellent question. For me, climate change is a technical issue to be solved, and shouldn't be politicised or aligned to any ideology, although I can see why it's been lumped in with left-wing ideas because of links to consumerism, capitalism, etc. I also think there will need to be some fairly radical shifts in some of our behaviours, which doesn't sit comfortably with a right-voting electorate.

I don't know if the topic will ever be apolitical but it helps to consider the broader appeal - there are plenty of economic and social benefits that can be reaped in the short- to medium-term by switching to low-carbon or adaptive measures. And very importantly, don't repeat the mistakes of the current political left by branding anyone who doesn't immediately agree with you as stupid or evil....

That said, there is one upside to it being a "lefty" issue - young people tend to be more left-leaning and the message certainly seems to be hitting home with the next generation, who will hopefully carry that through to their working lives.

OP posts:
JustInconvenient · 14/01/2020 19:45

Sorry, busy couple of days!

What do you think Brexit means for climate change? I haven't heard that DECC may return. Am waiting with dread to see what red tape is cut first. My experience of red tape in planning tends to be environmental legislation, would expect engineers to cite health and safety.

The DECC thing was just a rumour, so might be nothing to it. In terms of brexit, it affects our role in mitigation schemes and target setting (although I've not heard that our mitigation targets are likely to change) but not adaptation so much, as any responsibilities for adaptation fall under the climate change act rather than any EU directives. However, where adaptation interacts with environmental standards underpinned by an EU directive (which is often) then there's more uncertainty. There's some disquiet over whether or not the withdrawal bill might weaken some of the safeguards around environmental protections, and if you can't maintain even the baseline now, you're going to struggle to adequately build in adaptation...

When you talk about cutting red tape, what are you concerned about? That health and safety standards will slip, or that they will be used erroneously to mothball renewables or energy standards? I can certainly see how the latter might end up happening unfortunately.

OP posts:
Skysblue · 25/01/2020 19:05

Is climate change why we’ve seen so much desperation to migrate from certain parts of Africa? I know there are many factors at work here, but it seems to me unlikely to be a coincidence that climate change is suddenly so noticeable in the West only a few years after the migration crisis really hit Europe. Everyone is coming from the hot regions... I wonder if the history books of the future will say that the West didn’t take climate change seriously until Africa came banging on the door.

Pondering the moral responsibility towards migrants, of industrialised nations who contributed so greatly to climate change...

bakedbeanzontoast · 25/01/2020 21:15

Do you think people need to have less children?

crankysaurus · 25/01/2020 21:32

Thank you for starting the thread, I work in a similar field and your answers are interesting.

I have a question, how do you reply to climate deniers?

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