I work in climate change - AMA

[JustInconvenient]

Happy to answer any questions on climate change. Have been working in it for over a decade, on adaptation (dealing with the consequences of climate change) rather than mitigation (curbing greenhouse gas emissions).

Have nc'd in case any of this is outing, and answers on my job might be a bit vague as it's quite niche.

Thank you. No questions, just thank you.

Thanks, but I'm nothing special. Also, like most people, I have bills to pay, so I'm not doing it out of the goodness of my heart.

What can most people do to help reduce carbon emissions?

I know more people are aware of the problem now and trying to make changes. But I'm also aware they are small and some people are still burying their heads in the sand.

Realistically - what chances do we have of improving the situation with how things stand now?

• what are our children and their children's futures going to look like if the changes aren't made fast enough?

What can most people do to help reduce carbon emissions?

At an individual level, the usual, travel less, buy less, consume less. Where you do have to buy, look for the most sustainable options - locally sourced, sustainable materials, second hand etc. Eat less meat and dairy (although I don't think everyone needs to be vegan).

BUT I think that the full burden shouldn't be on individuals - industry are by far the biggest emitters and government need to get serious about our energy options and penalising companies that cause the most damage. Widespread changes in public opinion (like we're starting to see) will help to change industry practice to some extent.

Do you believe we'll see the end of the habitable world during our or our children's lifetimes?

*Realistically - what chances do we have of improving the situation with how things stand now?

• what are our children and their children's futures going to look like if the changes aren't made fast enough?*

The aim of the Paris agreement is to limit us to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels - we're currently at about 1 degree. Above 1.5 degrees there's some marked changes, e.g. damage to coral reefs versus total disappearance and some things keep getting worse, like flood risk, heatwave, drought, etc. The bit that's difficult to predict is around how the ice sheets behave - but there are tipping points that could see us locked into a spiral if/when large-scale ice sheet collapse happens in Antarctica.

What are our chances of stopping it? We're already locked into a certain amount of climate change and we're already seeing the effects. Most people I know are fairly pessimistic about staying within 1.5 degrees (estimates vary but we've got about 8-12 years to reduce our emissions enough to do this) and if we stay on our current trajectory we're looking at about 3 degrees by the end of the century.

What will our kids' future look like? Challenging. Obviously it depends on a lot of things along with future emissions, but parts of the world may be difficult to inhabit, with increased desertification (green areas turning to desert) and a lot more extreme weather. In the UK, the heatwaves of today could become normal summers by mid-century. There will be some difficult decisions to make about low-lying coastal communities and pressures on water resources will become very difficult to manage by the end of the century. There will also be a lot of changes in the species we see due to movement (the ones that don't die-out) along with pests and diseases, but the modelling on this side of things isn't my area so much.

Do you believe we'll see the end of the habitable world during our or our children's lifetimes?

No, I don't think so. Parts of the world may become uninhabitable under certain scenarios, and things will get more difficult, but the planet should still be habitable. I don't have a crystal ball though.

In your opinion is climate change utterly man made or is it part of a natural cycle.

Hi OP. Do carbon offsetting schemes, such as tree planting, really work?

Well done OP.

I also work in climate change, and am a renewable energy campaigner.

Do you think we should have carbon pricing?

Thanks for starting such an interesting thread OP.

BUT I think that the full burden shouldn't be on individuals - industry are by far the biggest emitters and government need to get serious about our energy options and penalising companies that cause the most damage. Widespread changes in public opinion (like we're starting to see) will help to change industry practice to some extent.

What you say here ^ confirms my thoughts, any advice on what individuals can do to lobby these companys/organisations to change?

Can you come and give a talk at our university 😁👍😉

What can most people do to help reduce carbon emissions?

I would add to the OP's response:

Think very carefully about how you spend or invest every £.
Write to your MP.

In your opinion is climate change utterly man made or is it part of a natural cycle.

Natural variability has always and will always be a factor in the weather and climate. Climate change skews the range of what we see, and causes more frequent extreme events. There's an absolute scientific consensus on this.

The difficulty is when any one extreme event happens, being able to pick out the climate signal from what you would see within the natural range - what we call an attribution study. It takes a bit of time to do this because of all the variables to sift though (although they're getting quicker) so you rarely get a straight answer on whether an event is due to climate change until sometime after the event, by which time the public have lost interest and put it down to natural cycles...

Hi OP. Do carbon offsetting schemes, such as tree planting, really work?

Not my area, but my understanding is that the regulation around carbon offsetting has improved greatly in recent years, and there's the potential to fund some pretty nifty tech around carbon capture and storage. Some schemes are better than others though and it's not that transparent to the consumer. I would say though that carbon offsetting has to go hand-in-hand with behaviour change, although the sort of people who look into carbon offsetting might also be the sort of people who try to cut down on their consumption anyway...

I also work in climate change, and am a renewable energy campaigner.

Do you think we should have carbon pricing?

Definitely not my area! Would need an environmental economist or someone who works on trading schemes to answer that one. I did a bit of work on the carbon reduction commitment years ago when carbon was about £15/tonne and remember reading that the price needed to go up to at least £50/tonne to make a difference. I'm not an economist though so couldn't comment further.

Can I ask a question back? What do you see as the main barrier(s) to renewable uptake?

What you say here ^ confirms my thoughts, any advice on what individuals can do to lobby these companys/organisations to change?

That's a good question, and not easy to answer as influencing companies is multi-faceted. You can vote with your feet, you can give consumer feedback, you can get involved in local initiatives, allsorts. Tell your friends which brands you'll use and why.

It's really difficult to try and tell one person what to do because it feels like a massive task, but the more it becomes normalised the more momentum it will gather.

Think very carefully about how you spend or invest every £.
Write to your MP.

Absolutely this!

Working in the area you do, what concerns you the most about the next few decades wrt to impact from climate change?

Can you come and give a talk at our university

Ha ha! I do a lot of work with universities and always find them very engaged so I doubt you need the likes of me to tell you how to do it. There are plenty of excellent research establishments in academia as well (a few off the top of my head - Exeter, Loughborough, Imperial, Newcastle, UEA and loads more I've probably missed).

Do you think that the focus of the public and industry should shift onto something else other than plastic? Plastic gets so much focus and attention but aren’t there higher priority things that would help with the global warming issue which seems to be the most important issue currently?

Working in the area you do, what concerns you the most about the next few decades wrt to impact from climate change?

Heatwave and resulting impacts (such as wildfire) - my dismay over the Australian bushfires prompted me to start this thread.

Biggest concern for me is water resources, nationally and globally. Average rainfall is roughly the same, but patterns of rainfall are changing/will continue to change with long dry spells interspersed with heavy rainstorms. This will present a big challenge in managing water storage in the mid to long term.

Do you think that the focus of the public and industry should shift onto something else other than plastic? Plastic gets so much focus and attention but aren’t there higher priority things that would help with the global warming issue which seems to be the most important issue currently?

Thank you! Yes I couldn't agree more, and it winds me up to see plastic lumped in with climate change when they're entirely different (and sometimes contradictory) issues. I think plastic has gained a lot of attention because of Blue Planet, and to be fair no one wants to see whales being washed up with a belly full of plastic but aside from being an eye-sore, the evidence on wider environmental damage is a bit thin. Cutting down on single use plastics where they're not needed is great and the disposal/recycling desperately needs an overhaul, but under climate change food longevity is going to be dependent on plastics, and a drive to create alternatives could lead to much bigger problems (e.g. monoculture for biodegradable production).

Interesting thread.
What countries/areas will be effected the most?
Will the richer countries be the safer countries?

Also
Do you worry about the future a lot or feel positive?