AMA - Brexit

[LuLuLuLuLooooo]

As requested on the 'which AMAs do you want' thread...

My job is to help businesses prepare for Brexit (I'm not going to say which businesses as it's quite specific).

I spend all day thinking about the business and economic impact of Brexit, and the politics of it. Less about the consumer impact, though still probably some helpful stuff.

So, AMA.

What issue do you find is the most overlooked ie businesses have given no thought to before they engage you?

Which would have a worse effect (say over the next 5 years)?

1. no-deal Brexit on 31st October this year;
2. current WA+PD squeaking through by 31/10/19, so transition in place until 2021/2022;
3. a final say referendum leading to no-deal in 2020;
4. a final say referendum leading to current WA+PD in 2020;
5. a final say referendum leading to revoking A50 in 2020;
6. revoking A50 at the last minute in the week leading to 31/10/19.

*What issue do you find is the most overlooked?
*
Not overlooked exactly - the businesses I work with are big so have thought of most things - but the one that most places (I find) have done the least about is data.

Say you have a call centre in Poland or process orders in Portugal. You need to make sure that UK customer info can be shared from here to there and back again. If it can't, that's a huge problem that businesses can't really solve without massive disruption.

Because it's so big, most places are working on the basis that gvt will just have to sort it out, so they aren't doing the massive, expensive prep themselves.

*Which would have the worse effect?
*
No deal, whenever it happens. The effect on business (and everyone who relies on many businesses for their jobs, or likes to buy fresh food, or needs certain medicines...) would be vast. There is only so much planning you can do so the timing isn't particularly important, except if it happens around Christmas which would be catastrophic for food importers.

After that - my feeling is probably a narrow remain vote in a second referendum or revoke (I say that as someone who campaigned for remain last time). This is crystal-ball gazing, but I can imagine terrible social and political impact from that from people who feel let down.

The WA and PD (or a version of them) aren't great, but aren't totally catastrophic.