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Flooding of state schools by ex indie students fails to materialise

138 replies

zaxxon · 10/03/2025 20:56

An interesting story, given all the doomsaying we saw on here last year following the VAT policy change. It's great news that more families received their first choice of school this year.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

No exodus to state sector after VAT added to private school fees, say English councils

Most say they have seen no impact on applications for year 7 places, despite warnings from those against policy

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

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selondonman · 26/06/2025 19:10

CowTown · 26/06/2025 18:51

This isn’t a race to the bottom.

Some parents don’t buy bookshelves full of books to read alongside their children. Does it mean I won’t? No.

Some parents don’t buy musical instruments and tuition for their children. Does it mean I won’t? No.

Some parents don’t pay for swimming lessons. Does it mean I won’t? No.

Some parents don’t feed their children three healthy meals every day. Does it mean I won’t? No.

Some parents don’t take their children on holidays. Does it mean I won’t? No.

I agree that charging VAT will send more private pupils into the grammar system, and I fundamentally disagree with charging VAT on education. I believe in grammar schools for the bright children whose parents cannot afford an exclusive education.

What’s your point?

my point is the VAT raid is pure ideological

evil bridget will go after grammars after she finished with academies

grammar schools are not needed, all comps should have a grammar scream that you can enter at any age group

grammars kick kids out of their school if they are struggling academically, private schools dont

but overall it will get much harder to get into grammars and top performing state schools

we actually saw this at during covid when many private school kids took grammar places.

selondonman · 26/06/2025 19:05

CowTown · 26/06/2025 18:52

Child abuse?

I’m out. Bye.

it is child abuse to force kids out of their private schools back into comps they could not cope in

CowTown · 26/06/2025 18:52

selondonman · 26/06/2025 18:25

there was a alex cartoon, saying he welcomed VAT on education as it stopped the riff raff from going to private schools and it showed others that you were rich if you could still afford it

labour is making private schools even more elite

the issue is for kids who cant cope in comps, forced to go private and many are forced now back into state

this is child abuse

Child abuse?

I’m out. Bye.

CowTown · 26/06/2025 18:51

selondonman · 26/06/2025 18:23

being in the catchment area means you dont have to be ranked like those outside the catchment area

those parents who would have gone private will now tutor harder and get their kids into the grammar places

it is going to become harder and harder to get into a grammar as the average score goes higher and higher

tutoring is not just tutoring it is available to the few

you are just saying that to make your self feel better

many of those pupils who cant afford grammars had bursaries , but much less now

you are missing the fact that by forcing kids out of private schools this will make it harder for state school kids to get into grammars and the best state schools

please explain how this helps state school kids ?

This isn’t a race to the bottom.

Some parents don’t buy bookshelves full of books to read alongside their children. Does it mean I won’t? No.

Some parents don’t buy musical instruments and tuition for their children. Does it mean I won’t? No.

Some parents don’t pay for swimming lessons. Does it mean I won’t? No.

Some parents don’t feed their children three healthy meals every day. Does it mean I won’t? No.

Some parents don’t take their children on holidays. Does it mean I won’t? No.

I agree that charging VAT will send more private pupils into the grammar system, and I fundamentally disagree with charging VAT on education. I believe in grammar schools for the bright children whose parents cannot afford an exclusive education.

What’s your point?

selondonman · 26/06/2025 18:25

roses2 · 26/06/2025 17:37

I wonder if there are any stats available on the number of applicants at the top performing private schools vs the low performing private schools. I can well image that the top performing private schools have seen an increase in number of applicants whilst the private schools with results comparable to state school have seen a fall in applicants.

there was a alex cartoon, saying he welcomed VAT on education as it stopped the riff raff from going to private schools and it showed others that you were rich if you could still afford it

labour is making private schools even more elite

the issue is for kids who cant cope in comps, forced to go private and many are forced now back into state

this is child abuse

selondonman · 26/06/2025 18:23

CowTown · 26/06/2025 18:01

Bring in catchment doesn’t mean you get a place. Top scores get places, regardless of parental income.

Tutoring is tutoring, regardless of whether it’s in primary school, GCSEs, or A-Levels…parents can choose whether they hire tutors. Tutoring exists in non-11+ counties.

Many pupils who go to grammar can’t afford private schools.

Edited

being in the catchment area means you dont have to be ranked like those outside the catchment area

those parents who would have gone private will now tutor harder and get their kids into the grammar places

it is going to become harder and harder to get into a grammar as the average score goes higher and higher

tutoring is not just tutoring it is available to the few

you are just saying that to make your self feel better

many of those pupils who cant afford grammars had bursaries , but much less now

you are missing the fact that by forcing kids out of private schools this will make it harder for state school kids to get into grammars and the best state schools

please explain how this helps state school kids ?

CowTown · 26/06/2025 18:01

selondonman · 26/06/2025 17:34

no it isnt it based upon how much money the parents can spend on private tutoring, be aware that tutoring is needed and or being able to move within the catchment area of the grammar

Bring in catchment doesn’t mean you get a place. Top scores get places, regardless of parental income.

Tutoring is tutoring, regardless of whether it’s in primary school, GCSEs, or A-Levels…parents can choose whether they hire tutors. Tutoring exists in non-11+ counties.

Many pupils who go to grammar can’t afford private schools.

selondonman · 26/06/2025 17:40

dont worry the NEU will strike again. At least when the NEU is on strike the state school teachers cant indoctrinate your children in gender ideology, critical race theory, marxism and hatred of the west

selondonman · 26/06/2025 17:39

evil Bridget cancel latin funding in state schools mid year. cuts advanced maths

selondonman · 26/06/2025 17:37

selondonman · 26/06/2025 17:36

for the size of the school intakes 13,000 is not a huge number but 13,000 kids have left the school of their choice and then other are not starting

grammars are getting harder to get in as well as the best state schools

it is pure statistical spin by evil bridget philipson. of course it is planted in the guardian

roses2 · 26/06/2025 17:37

I wonder if there are any stats available on the number of applicants at the top performing private schools vs the low performing private schools. I can well image that the top performing private schools have seen an increase in number of applicants whilst the private schools with results comparable to state school have seen a fall in applicants.

selondonman · 26/06/2025 17:36

prh47bridge · 26/06/2025 16:01

It is based on fact. The evidence is that applications to state schools have not gone up significantly this year. However, as per my first post on this thread, that doesn't really tell us anything. Many parents intending to send their children to independent schools also applied for state schools to give themselves a backup, so I wouldn't have expected a huge increase in applications even if people are abandoning independent schools. The number how actually start in September will be a better indicator.

for the size of the school intakes 13,000 is not a huge number but 13,000 kids have left the school of their choice and then other are not starting

grammars are getting harder to get in as well as the best state schools

selondonman · 26/06/2025 17:34

CowTown · 26/06/2025 16:05

Yes, they should be more selective—entrance is based on the child’s ability, rather than on how deep the parents’ pockets are.

no it isnt it based upon how much money the parents can spend on private tutoring, be aware that tutoring is needed and or being able to move within the catchment area of the grammar

CowTown · 26/06/2025 16:05

selondonman · 26/06/2025 16:00

grammars are more selective and unfair than private schools

Yes, they should be more selective—entrance is based on the child’s ability, rather than on how deep the parents’ pockets are.

prh47bridge · 26/06/2025 16:01

selondonman · 26/06/2025 15:55

because it is a story / gov spin not fact !

It is based on fact. The evidence is that applications to state schools have not gone up significantly this year. However, as per my first post on this thread, that doesn't really tell us anything. Many parents intending to send their children to independent schools also applied for state schools to give themselves a backup, so I wouldn't have expected a huge increase in applications even if people are abandoning independent schools. The number how actually start in September will be a better indicator.

selondonman · 26/06/2025 16:00

CowTown · 13/03/2025 09:56

Well said. My DC are currently in grammar, and some of the vitriol I’ve received on other threads is shocking. Full disclosure: I vote LibDem, but you’d think from what other posters have said to me, I’m akin to Jacob Rees Mogg, and I hold identical political beliefs to his.

Edited

grammars are more selective and unfair than private schools

selondonman · 26/06/2025 15:57

Ubertomusic · 13/03/2025 10:05

Talking about buying privilege and preferential treatment... 🙄

that is moving houses to get into grammar schools or top state schools

selondonman · 26/06/2025 15:55

zaxxon · 10/03/2025 20:56

An interesting story, given all the doomsaying we saw on here last year following the VAT policy change. It's great news that more families received their first choice of school this year.

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2025/mar/10/no-exodus-to-state-sector-after-vat-added-to-private-school-fees-say-english-councils?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

because it is a story / gov spin not fact !

zaxxon · 14/03/2025 17:17

So sorry to hear that CharlieMagenta. If your child has medical needs that can't be met by the allocated school, that might be grounds for an appeal? Wishing you the best of luck with it!

OP posts:
CharlieMagenta · 14/03/2025 16:13

zaxxon · 10/03/2025 21:35

Well, maybe it's too early to say, then. If there is a shift, let's hope it happens gradually, so the upheaval is minimised. I haven't seen an unusual amount of posts on MN from disappointed parents following allocation day, so that's got to be a good thing.

We were offered our 4th choice school and they are refusing to accommodate my child’s medical needs. On continuing interest for 3 schools and 22nd place on waiting list for semi-selective. Not great situation to be honest.
There are many private schools near us, but I don’t think they have even announced the 25/26 fees yet.

EasternStandard · 13/03/2025 12:16

strappyshoe · 13/03/2025 11:34

Probably because you're posting that it won't have an impact.

I think there will be some impact, I already said I feel for dc with SEN so I'm not sure who you have inferred that to mean I am pro?

I just don't think the impact will be very big as some posters have claimed eg I don't think many will be giving up their jobs, buying all the houses in catchment, spending 16k on tutors &/or taking the majority of the grammar places. I also think it's hard to separate other issues eg lower birth rates, increased COL, fee increases pre VAT etc when looking at numbers.

I also don't think the majority of the electorate care about this policy but you can disagree.

The electorate don't care about many things including some of Labour's anti growth policies. But that doesn't mean they still won't care when it hits something like welfare cuts.

Labour have got it wrong and those at the welfare end will feel it.

Ubertomusic · 13/03/2025 12:15

puffyisgood · 13/03/2025 11:09

The article says that there'll be a new junior section at the Hampstead site, which must surely mean new places.

It also says that there'll be a lot of investment in shiny new stuff [doubtless shared in full with local communities etc etc].

I'm fairly sure that these are both the sorts of things that we were told couldn't possibly happen following the imposition of VAT.

Not necessarily new places, they're just trying to lure those who'd otherwise go to Highgate, SHHS, USC etc. We applied both to Alleyns and Hampstead schools so they know their customer base. Some families are not very keen on single sex schools, and only Highgate is co-ed in that area (NBH is not in the same league).

I'd say it's more a sign of increasing competition between schools rather than expanding the number of places.

Our former school used to attract 10+ applications per place, they very rarely had occasional places, only when families moved abroad, and those places were filled in quickly. Now they have a few places in most year groups. They are still academically selective and I don't know what they are going to do. They can't accept whoever comes as that would damage academic league tables and will in turn lead to falling number of applications.

ICouldBeVioletSky · 13/03/2025 12:07

strappyshoe · 13/03/2025 11:34

Probably because you're posting that it won't have an impact.

I think there will be some impact, I already said I feel for dc with SEN so I'm not sure who you have inferred that to mean I am pro?

I just don't think the impact will be very big as some posters have claimed eg I don't think many will be giving up their jobs, buying all the houses in catchment, spending 16k on tutors &/or taking the majority of the grammar places. I also think it's hard to separate other issues eg lower birth rates, increased COL, fee increases pre VAT etc when looking at numbers.

I also don't think the majority of the electorate care about this policy but you can disagree.

“I also don't think the majority of the electorate care about this policy but you can disagree.”

I think most of us who oppose this policy would agree that the majority of the electorate either don’t care/don’t think this affects them or think the policy is a good thing.

Our point is they should care, because in one way or another it will affect many of them (not the doomsday scenarios predicted by some, but at the very least as part of the bigger picture of Labour royally screwing things up.)

And that on no objective analysis is the policy a good thing; there are unlikely to be any tangible benefits and certainly not those that have been used by Labour to justify it.

Ubertomusic · 13/03/2025 12:01

coldandfrostymorning23 · 13/03/2025 11:05

I am not a fan of Gove, but within the state system, academy trusts and free schools have managed to increase achievement at scale over the past several years - particularly in areas with poor education outcomes.

The decisions by Bridget Phillipson to get rid of the Academy Conversion Grant and the Trust Capacity Fund (grants which help the establishment of Academies) and to pause the last wave of free schools seems to have received relatively little attention. Another example of this government working to undermine parental choice and higher levels of academic achievement?

Oh but lots of MN posters absolutely hate academies too? So it's yet another popular policy for the electorate.

user149799568 · 13/03/2025 11:46

puffyisgood · 13/03/2025 11:09

The article says that there'll be a new junior section at the Hampstead site, which must surely mean new places.

It also says that there'll be a lot of investment in shiny new stuff [doubtless shared in full with local communities etc etc].

I'm fairly sure that these are both the sorts of things that we were told couldn't possibly happen following the imposition of VAT.

I believe the junior section will be only Years 3-6, allowing them to become an all-through again. It's not clear whether they'll end up moving some students from those years at the Regent's Park school. And I suspect that, if they are creating net new places, the viability was helped by the closure of two of their direct competitors this summer.

If there is a reduction in demand for private school places, it's unlikely that all schools will suffer equally. It's more likely that the weaker schools or schools lower on the hierarchy suffer disproportionately while the stronger schools are much less affected or even see their demand increase if weaker schools shut down completely rather than merely shrink. I also suspect that Cognita are doing what they think is necessary to move their schools closer to the top of the hierarchy.