Will there be a General Election before 2027?

@Dragonscaledaisy

The next budget is due 28 October 2026. If it contains tax rises and it receives significant backlash from MPs, Burham would then have to choose between:

U-turn

Ignore and hope they are forgotten by. 2029

Call a GE

So they’re planning to fuck over the younger generations. Again.

Are they? Has this been announced?

The news headlines claim a think tank related to Reform. Not the same thing at all as we know when left leaning think tanks do the same.

It’s the logical conclusion from They will abolish inheritance tax and capital gains at the expense of the state pension. You'll be given 1000 at birth and your parents and yourself be expected to invest 15% into a savings account for when you retire...there is no state pension.

It’s not going to affect anyone old, is it?

@blossomtoes

They will abolish inheritance tax

It’s the young people who will inherit, not the old. So, if inheritance tax is abolished, is that not an advantage for the young?

All difficult choices aren't they. I'm very interested to see what he decides to do - the usual U turn no doubt. The electorate won't have forgotten by 2029 that's for sure.

that's why I believe he will call election.

It is impossible to deliver what he and Labour want without major tax rises. These tax rises are likely to paralyse economy completely.

Labour's popularity has picked up slightly based on vibes, Reform is down based on recent donation and undercover scandals.

If election is called today Labour are nearly certain to win, not the same majority as now, but still majority, even if very slim. They will be able to claim mandate then to continue taxing, end triple lock and grow welfare. And be in the job for another five years.

If they press ahead without election, they are almost certain to lose - by 2029 the level of damage caused will be very obvious and no option to blame Tory anymore.

Andy's call depends on outcomes of byelection - if ZP takes Starmer's seat than AB will be concerned about left vote split. If Labour win there, then he's likely to go ahead

Oooh interesting! Personally, I think they have little chance of gaining a majority in an early GE and Burnham probably can't afford to take the risk, but happy to be proven wrong, so let's see what happens over the next few weeks as you say. He's going to find a way to raise taxes one way or another for sure. If not now then very soon.

If he does his early speech on not holding one didn’t last long.

that's why I believe he will call election.

It is impossible to deliver what he and Labour want without major tax rises. These tax rises are likely to paralyse economy completely.

Labour's popularity has picked up slightly based on vibes, Reform is down based on recent donation and undercover scandals.

If election is called today Labour are nearly certain to win, not the same majority as now, but still majority, even if very slim. They will be able to claim mandate then to continue taxing, end triple lock and grow welfare. And be in the job for another five years.

If they press ahead without election, they are almost certain to lose - by 2029 the level of damage caused will be very obvious and no option to blame Tory anymore.

Andy's call depends on outcomes of byelection - if ZP takes Starmer's seat than AB will be concerned about left vote split. If Labour win there, then he's likely to go ahead

Bookies don't think so. You can get 11/1 on 2026. 2027 is 13.8, 2028 is 6/1 and 2029 is 10/11.

So 2029 favourite with 2027 second favourite.
I remember thinking 3/1 Brexit was a good bet the day before, but so wanted to remain, I didn't go for it. Trump was 3/1 against Hillary Clinton. Again I thought good odds, but wanted Hilary so didn't bet.

But he's have to come out with an actual plan on raising taxes in his manifesto? I'm not sure the press would let them get away with the "no taxes raises for ordinary workers" without asking a lot of questions on the loopholes again.

Anyway would people vote for more taxes for an even bigger welfare state?

I don't think he will call it this year, I believe it's going to be 2027.

They need more time to work on manifesto.

So will offer to end triple lock, reform CGT to include property gains on death, wealth tax incl property (incl prime residence). So they will hit middle classes yet again, but will offer EU referendum or "much stronger cooperation" with EU to still capture liberal vote which will be badly affected by tax reforms. So people like me will have to chose between living something to their DCs and returning their EU access.

Tory will promise to abolish IHT and cut welfare.

LibDems are irrelevant, they will form coalition if Lab don't get outright majority.

He will.
He will declare tax reform in manifesto.

The issue is that majority of UK are net takers so will vote for this.

Review threads here a few months ago when there was speculation about replacing council tax with 0.48% property tax. Some of us were saying that studio flats in London will pay more than mansions with acres of land somewhere in e.g. Midlands - how cheerful people outside of SE were on these threads!

So Labour will get benefit street vote, bribe liberal lower middle class with EU promise. Then those higher earners who've been squeezed with income taxes for ages will now be hit by CGT and property taxes, but there are too few of them to make a difference in election. And Labour will get in for another five years and God help us.

ETA: my only hope is Zak getting in and AB being scared of left vote split, this might make him hold off

Think it would be foolish to call it, too risky. Labour should rejoin the EU next year and possibly the single currency. Not vote needed just get on with it and if Reform get in, they won't be able to cause any more damage.

Remember in two years Trump and his awful cabinet will be gone...that will change everything.

He will.
He will declare tax reform in manifesto.

The issue is that majority of UK are net takers so will vote for this.

Review threads here a few months ago when there was speculation about replacing council tax with 0.48% property tax. Some of us were saying that studio flats in London will pay more than mansions with acres of land somewhere in e.g. Midlands - how cheerful people outside of SE were on these threads!

So Labour will get benefit street vote, bribe liberal lower middle class with EU promise. Then those higher earners who've been squeezed with income taxes for ages will now be hit by CGT and property taxes, but there are too few of them to make a difference in election. And Labour will get in for another five years and God help us.

ETA: my only hope is Zak getting in and AB being scared of left vote split, this might make him hold off

We can’t just “rejoin next year” or in any particular year. We’d have to apply, be unanimously accepted and meet terms.

We have no idea whether all the EU countries would want us or what we’d have to do to join, or whether the country would accept those terms (like joining the Euro and being under the ECB for example).

I realise the government can theoretically take us back in without a referendum but in reality no government would do so if it thought it would be crucified in a GE afterwards, and the EU states wouldn’t want a reluctant or even back-out-again member.

This isn’t an anti-EU point of view - I voted remain - but a realistic one. If we’re ever to rejoin it will take many, many years and be a horrendous process both domestically and internationally.

There isn’t too few of them and when they march they make their voices heard, home owners and older voters vote much more than younger people and renters. And Labour will lose a lot to reform.

id be very surprised if your prediction comes true, the polls right now say you’re wrong, and it’s unlikely to sway in favour of them.