The attack was 2 years in planning and the following is regarded as Sinwar (Hamas leader) intent:
"Captured documents, intelligence assessments, and secret meeting minutes seized by the Israeli military outline Yahya Sinwar's primary intent for what would happen after the October 7th attacks. Rather than planning a localized, short-term border raid, Sinwar's strategic goals were designed to permanently alter the Middle East. 1, 2]
- Triggering a Regional Conflagration
Sinwar’s central expectation was that a highly devastating attack would force Hamas’s regional allies into an all-out war with Israel.
1,
2]
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The "Axis of Resistance": Minutes from secret meetings revealed that Sinwar intended to compel Iran and Hezbollah to launch a full-scale synchronized assault from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. 1, 2]
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Miscalculation: While Hezbollah began firing rockets into northern Israel on October 8, and Iran later engaged in direct missile exchanges, neither ally launched the immediate, total ground invasion that Sinwar had anticipated. 1, 2]
- Inciting a Domestic Palestinian Uprising
Sinwar intended for the media and graphic documentation of the attack to act as a catalyst for a mass uprising. He explicitly instructed units to broadcast footage to mobilize Palestinians in the
West Bank and trigger civil unrest among
Arab Israelis inside Israel. He believed this multi-front internal pressure would cause Israeli society to "collapse".
1,
2,
3,
4,
5]
- Securing a Massive Prisoner Exchange
By capturing a large volume of hostages, Sinwar aimed to replicate—on a massive scale—the 2011 Gilad Shalit deal (in which he himself was freed alongside over 1,000 prisoners). His intent was to use the hostages as definitive leverage to force Israel into emptying its prisons of all Palestinian detainees.
1,
2]
- Derailing Diplomatic Normalization
A major geopolitical goal was to permanently disrupt the ongoing diplomatic talks regarding
Saudi-Israeli normalization. By shattering Israel’s facade of regional invulnerability and shifting focus back onto the Palestinian conflict, Sinwar intended to freeze any Arab-Israeli alignment that bypassed Hamas.
1]
- Sacrificing the Governance of Gaza for a "Prophetic" Victory
Intelligence officials noted that Sinwar viewed the timeline through a deeply religious and prophetic lens, believing that a catastrophic event was necessary to transition from a phase of "buildup" to a final phase of "total liberation".
1,
2]
According to analyses reported by platforms like
The Washington Post and
NBC News, Sinwar was fully aware that the brutality of the attack would trigger an existential, devastating military response from Israel. Experts suggest he was willing to accept the destruction of Gaza and the loss of Hamas’s civilian governance project, believing that the resulting regional war would ultimately lead to Israel’s long-term undoing."