(Lack of) US Iran Peace Agreement Part 5

Americans should at least be transitioning from monster trucks.
Agree.
I know I'm being disrespectful here, but rednecks (and Texans) be like 'No way, it's my identity!".
Disclaimer. I have a DN and a SIL who drive these.

The US does subsidize oil though. The industry.

Trumps One big Beautiful Bill Act gave them an additional $40 billion.

New Bill Boosts Fossil Fuel Subsidies by $40 Billion → Policy (sustainability-directory.com)

Corporate welfare on steroids. The US way.

So taxpayers subsidising big oil without any payback for consumers? I'm betting several of Trump's friends will be benefitting and that Donny jr's involved somewhere in the handouts. He's probably bought into the CC industry.

And taxpayers funding $12B so far in military support for Israel under 47th's administration.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/16/us-arms-sale-israel-gregory-meeks

Been that way for decades. Because of the leverage the oil industry have by controlling a national security thing.

All US industry do it, because it is baked into US law.

" The company's management and its Board Of Directors have a fundamental, and often legally-backed, responsibility to make decisions that increase the value of your ownership stake. "

Shareholder Value: The Ultimate Guide to a Company's Core Duty (uslawexplained.com)

The Military Industrial Complex are masters at it. " Be a shame if we closed our factory in Maine in election year Senator. Now, about these tax breaks".

If I was a Senator, I would be replying," Hmm yes. My colleagues and I are discussing if we should nationalize key strategic industries."

:-)

But there's a difference between companies maximising profits/ROI to benefit the companies, who in turn answer to shareholders so they have to deliver shareholder value, and a gov't handing out subsidies that don't benefit the people much, but could benefit the gov't in power.
The latter type of corruption is globally rife.

Totally agree. But corruption can be legislated against... to an extent. Not so easy though when the system encourages it.

“I’m not proposing a third bloc in order to become a great power rival, only with better manners,” Carney told EU lawmakers in France.

“We do not seek power to dominate others. On the contrary, we are pursuing resilience so no one can control our open markets, impair our sovereignty, threaten territorial integrity or undermine our freedoms, our democracies, our rule of law.”

Mark Carney: Canada-EU alliance isn’t meant to be a US rival with ‘better manners’ | CNN Business

Trump is the danger here. More than Iran I would say. And look, I am not a communist or a socialist (dictionary definition I mean). I do live in a communist country though, a corrupt one. And the Party is like a beast that nobody can control. The survival of the Party is number one. And that overrides the rule of law. The Party protects itself, rule number one. It is the only real law.

Compare that to the US capitalist system. It needs law more, because that beast of capitalism is meaner and bigger. It is an ideology designed to chew up and spit out the weak and the poor. Where money is the God.

Likes of Carney, he knows this. Mixed economy capitalism beats communism, and pure capitalism, but only if it has the laws. The laws that Trump is trying to dismantle. Trump does not understand the beast he is trying to unshackle.

Nor do I by the way. Not totally. But I do understand the communist beast pretty well. The one that needs authoritarianism.

On thread now. Iran. A brutal authoritarian theocratic system. The people of Iran only really have one offer on the table. The Trump beast. The PRC stay quiet. And I honestly think it is because they know, deep down, the Carney vision (not him specifically) is better for the people. With lots of tweaks of course. There is no perfect system, and any new Iranian system will need a lot of religion integrated into it, for now anyway.

I know what system I see as the greatest threat to Humanity. And I think, if we can push that to the side, disenfranchise it with law, then we can tackle the Iranian clerics.

By the way. On privatization of oil. Saudi Arabia ? And that you posted earlier today that US oil can't be nationalized "cos pensions". To me that says the capitalist beast is already too big. And the bigger it gets, the hungrier it becomes.

Ah @RedTagAlan , pensions is only one part of the conundrum of how to nationalise the US O&G industry. And it will take more than a stable of stable geniuses to crack that one!

One rule for majors with clout and another for service companies with less, which now has me thinking along the lines of the Tik Tok sale. eg Slb (French, so TT route) vs Halliburton (US).

Forgive my idle wonderings, I enjoy hypotheticals.... now back to Iran where nothing much is happening.

Just an observation. I think it's great that the "antiwar types" on these threads disagree with stuff. Because for anyone reading, it shows we are not some sort of homogenous mass. It kicks this whole binary " if you are against Trump then you are pro Iran regime" into touch. This is not an echo chamber.

I follow the other threads that pop up on these boards. The " they have a religion and way of life that is contrary to western values" sort. And they end up with " lefties are intolerant and want to shut us down". But they are the ones shutting it down. And they don't even know if the posters they disagree with are "lefties" Because beyond political soundbites, they have nothing to add. They shut it down by endlessly claiming they are being shut down.....

.... and reporting posts.

I don't report posts on these threads, and I promise not to start. Unless anyone tries to dox anyone.

So as we chew the cud waiting for Trump... I say oil should be nationalized.

😂Love it!

Any thoughts on why the US is planning to (re)supply Israel with munitions? Iran is allowed to be part of your answer.🤔

The tiktok sale was a national level scam, perhaps the greatest ever.... and Trump fell for it hook, line and....

With other people's money.

Trump has created a top down system that Mao would be proud of. It was never confirmed, was it ? That they got the algorithms. That is what Trump wanted after all. And these people who paid for it, with planet sized brains and billions of $ to spend, why did they not just write their own ?

What next ? Will Trump try to get his palls to buy the Iranian "lego" propaganda company ? It would not surprise me.

What happened to the 12k dumb bombs he sold Israel in the spring ? All gone ?

The US does have massive stocks of dumb bombs. The GPS kits that are strapped on to make them smart, they need congressional approval.

There are all the massive military costs as well that are not included. I just done a quick search for "us invests billions to expand patriot missile production", first hit

US Signs Deal to Boost Patriot and THAAD Missile Parts Production (usnews.com)

That's $3 billion. August 2026, And in that article is this -

"The deal, announced by the Pentagon and Northrop on Monday, follows last week's announcement of a contract for Lockheed worth up to $58.6 billion to produce Patriot interceptor missiles."

These contracts will be rock solid and welded in. What they produce will have to be bought by the next POTUS. And the next. Needed or not.

Aircraft airframe hours are being used up. Years of service life taken off ships. Extended maintenance. All these things have been blown apart because of Trumps war of choice. And they will have to be sorted to be prepared for a war not of choice.

Oh, I see Saudi Arabia are getting F35 now. So that likely means the next POTUS will be pushed for more money for Israel, because the deal there is that Israel has to be better kitted out than regional neighbours.

Trump is spending as if there is no tomorrow.

I think this kind of confirms my speculation earlier in this thread.

He has to go all in or effectively surrender. It is an unenviable choice and totally self inflicted.

He can't go all in can he.

And given how this is worldwide geopolitics, just as Xi is about to visit the US, the PRC reminds the US that other things are going on.

Chinese Embassy condemns US support for Philippine provocations near Xianbin Jiao - Global Times

No tin foil hat needed. From my understanding, it was the Chinese vessel that was weaving around behind the Phil vessel. And there was contact. And the US have a mutual defense deal with the phils. So here is a warning what will happen if the US pulls worldwide naval assets into the Gulf ?

Trump is an amateur when it comes to "Nice bar you have here, shame if something happens to it".

Bit of history needed here as well. When the Phils planted a WW2 era ship on a South China sea shoal, it coincided with the US bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999. The CPC narrative is that the bombing was a deliberate distraction ploy between the US and the Phils.

@RedTagAlan ,

I don’t see that he has many other options.

The blocking of the sea lanes by Iraq and its proxies isn’t only hurting the U.S. It seems that Trump may get international backing and help finally.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/saudi-arabia-yemen-statement-spokesperson-latest-houthi-attacks-0_en

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/ryhhivwtfe

It’s kind of hard to believe Arab nations would cooperate with the U.S and Israel against Iran, but Iran can’t hurt the U.S without hurting the gulf states and EU as well.

I think the Chinese provocation (if that is what it was) is pretty minor. Yes, China may ramp up its presence and aggression, but I don’t think it is looking for anything more at the moment. If you are winning the peace, why risk a war?

I'm another who doesn't think that Trump can go all in. A best case scenario will be a negotiated peace with the help of other nations which will then allow Trump to claim a Vietnam style victory.

This article
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/yemen-china-exploits-us-security-gap-while-seeking-curb-houthis

coupled with
https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2026/09/18/china-red-sea-strategy-ports-maritime-influence/

highlight the shadow cast by China in the ME.

The bigger story is not that China is replacing the United States overnight as the Gulf’s security guarantor, military partner, or dominant external power. It is that a more fragmented, post-US security order is already emerging in the Gulf, one in which China can gain influence by selectively engaging actors that Washington cannot, or will not, fully confront.

@trumpredcard ,

If you don’t think he can go all in, how do you think this plays out?

I am just not sure I see Iran giving much up in a negotiation, and I don’t see Trump effectively surrendering.

All has to do is meet the terms of his own MOU. The one he already agreed to.

But then, so does Iran, including toll free passage through the straits of Hormuz for all vessels and negotiating away their nuclear ambitions.

Do you see that happening?

As mention in my post, a negotiated settlement. Iran will have to give up some things, in the same way that the US will have to do the same. Whatever happens, each side will then spin it as a win. I think that Iran is already preparing for post Mid-terms and renewed US actions.

Let me put it back to you.
How will Trump go all in?