What has JK Rowling said or done that’s transphobic

It depends what you mean by those statements. If by ‘trans women are men’ you simply mean that trans women may have been born with male-typical reproductive anatomy and do not share all of the same physical characteristics as the majority of women, then no, I would not automatically call that transphobic.

If what you mean is that trans experience is not real, that trans women are merely men pretending or ‘cosplaying’ as women, that their identities are fundamentally false, etc, then yes — I would regard that as transphobic, because it moves beyond acknowledging anatomical differences and into denying or denigrating trans people’s identity and experience.

The central flaw in your logic is that while tossing a coin is random, selection into prison is anything but. That's why the prison population is not a representative sample from which you can draw more general conclusions - if it were selected randomly through tossing a coin, it would be and you would be able to draw conclusions based on probability.

Call me a transphobe or say my ideas are transphobic - same same and I don’t care.

I don’t respect the idea that a subset of males are women because no one has ever been able to explain to me how an adult human male is really an adult human female.

a woman is an adult human female with any likes, interests, personality or sartorial choices.

there is no mystical essence of indefinable womanhood that some men have - wanting something to be true doesn’t make it so

women are not simply substandard men, no amount of surgery or medication can turn a man into an adult human female

if a subset of males wants refuge from other males that is not women’s problem to solve, welcome to the world of feeling scared of men (we dint care how you dress, you are scary to us)

It depends what you mean by those statements. If by ‘trans women are men’ you simply mean that trans women may have been born with male-typical reproductive anatomy and do not share all of the same physical characteristics as the majority of women, then no, I would not automatically call that transphobic.

If what you mean is that trans experience is not real, that trans women are merely men pretending or ‘cosplaying’ as women, that their identities are fundamentally false, etc, then yes — I would regard that as transphobic, because it moves beyond acknowledging anatomical differences and into denying or denigrating trans people’s identity and experience.

So is your suggestion is that TW do in fact commit sexual offences at an equal rate to female people, but are jailed far more often due to unfairness in policing or sentencing? I haven't crunched the numbers (might do if I have time) but I'm pretty sure to make that add up you'd have an "unfairness" factor in the hundreds, potentially thousands of percent. I mean, it's a theory I guess, but the bigger that fudge factor gets, the less convincing it becomes.

Or is it that TWs do commit sexual offences at a higher rate, but it's their life experiences as trans rather than their maleness that drives this? In which case I'd say that is a very important distinction when it comes to the trans person, but totally meaningless when it comes to trying to suggest this means they somehow don't pose a significantly higher population level risk of sexual assault than other men, and an astonomically higher one than women.

It depends what you mean by those statements. If by ‘trans women are men’ you simply mean that trans women may have been born with male-typical reproductive anatomy and do not share all of the same physical characteristics as the majority of women, then no, I would not automatically call that transphobic.

If what you mean is that trans experience is not real, that trans women are merely men pretending or ‘cosplaying’ as women, that their identities are fundamentally false, etc, then yes — I would regard that as transphobic, because it moves beyond acknowledging anatomical differences and into denying or denigrating trans people’s identity and experience.

No. My point is that prison statistics do not allow us to estimate the sexual offending rate of trans women in the general population. That is a basic statistical limitation. I am not proposing either of the explanations you’ve invented for me,I am simply saying that the available prison figures simply do not answer the question you want them to answer.

This conversation is not a valid discussion about statistics, it's just the reproduction of the usual stereotypes about trans women as sexually perverted predators.

Does no one else have an innate feeling that they are a woman? I know I’m a woman because I menstruate, get pregnant, have the anatomy etc. I adhere to some of the female stereotypes in that i occasionally wear make up, take care of my appearance etc. But I genuinely “feel like a woman” aside from that. If I woke up tomorrow with a penis and no memory I still think I would feel like a woman. I suppose it’s possible that it’s just so ingrained in me from the physical and social attributes. I can’t really verbalise why I have that feeling or what makes me feel that way (besides the obvious).

No. My point is that prison statistics do not allow us to estimate the sexual offending rate of trans women in the general population. That is a basic statistical limitation. I am not proposing either of the explanations you’ve invented for me,I am simply saying that the available prison figures simply do not answer the question you want them to answer.

This conversation is not a valid discussion about statistics, it's just the reproduction of the usual stereotypes about trans women as sexually perverted predators.

It would be really interesting to hear how many people think they have gender identity/ believe in the concept. Cause when you survey women confidentially the vast majority say they don’t want trans women in their single sex spaces / sports etc. I bet the number of people who think this is nonsense is sky high but they’re too scared to voice that publicly..

It depends what you mean by those statements. If by ‘trans women are men’ you simply mean that trans women may have been born with male-typical reproductive anatomy and do not share all of the same physical characteristics as the majority of women, then no, I would not automatically call that transphobic.

If what you mean is that trans experience is not real, that trans women are merely men pretending or ‘cosplaying’ as women, that their identities are fundamentally false, etc, then yes — I would regard that as transphobic, because it moves beyond acknowledging anatomical differences and into denying or denigrating trans people’s identity and experience.

I don’t believe there is an innate property called “gender” which is distinct to a person’s biological sex. It’s an ideological claim based on an incoherent world view.

No. My point is that prison statistics do not allow us to estimate the sexual offending rate of trans women in the general population. That is a basic statistical limitation. I am not proposing either of the explanations you’ve invented for me,I am simply saying that the available prison figures simply do not answer the question you want them to answer.

This conversation is not a valid discussion about statistics, it's just the reproduction of the usual stereotypes about trans women as sexually perverted predators.

So, your point then is "meh - who knows why TW seem to have such a higher rate of offending. Maybe it's real, maybe it's not. Until it can be proved why, let's just ignore it"?

This is a very different position to your "Who knows why trans people feel what they do - but regardless it is clearly real and we must therefore accomodate it".

As I said, double standards.

No, my point is that prison statistics are not sufficient to evidence the claim that TW have a higher rate of offending. That is not a valid statistical inference to draw about the general TW population based on prison stats- it's not a representative population.

What seems to me to be genuinely tragic is men who have had the various surgery to get rid of their male genitalia and characteristics, and medication to grow their moobs, but then get dementia and forget they have done so, and seemingly wake every morning in panic and terror because they are in the wrong body. That's horrible to think of.

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1363460719876835 – you don't need the full article: the abstract offers nightmare enough.

(I'm sorry this isn't about Lacksie as most of the rest of the thread seems to have been at the point where I rejoined it this morning, but I am not particularly interested in Lacksie whereas I do care about human suffering even in the most exasperating individuals.)

No, my point is that prison statistics are not sufficient to evidence the claim that TW have a higher rate of offending. That is not a valid statistical inference to draw about the general TW population based on prison stats- it's not a representative population.

Ok so how is a man "feeling like a woman" supposed to be taken as fact if you won't take the fact TW sexually offend more than women as a fact?

First of all, I never said that “a man feeling like a woman is supposed to be taken as fact.” That is a ridiculous reformulation of what I actually said.

I said that the existence of trans experience — a persistent experience of gender identity that differs from natal sex — is a real, documented phenomenon. This is a proposition supported by decades of clinical and scientific evidence.

That has absolutely nothing to do with whether you can infer population-level sexual offending rates from a tiny, highly selected, non-representative sample of people who are already in prison. You can’t.

These are completely different evidential questions

No, my point is that prison statistics are not sufficient to evidence the claim that TW have a higher rate of offending. That is not a valid statistical inference to draw about the general TW population based on prison stats- it's not a representative population.

Again your ability to understand is hampered because you have a blind spot when it comes to considering where women are in this.

The question isn't "does this prove, without a doubt, that TW have higher rates of sexual offending than other men?" because we already have the principle that we exclude all men. We aren't suggesting we need to somehow extra-exclude trans women because just the normal justification for excluding men is enough.

The question is "does this create enough of a concern that TW have higer rates of sexual offending than women that we should not be claiming there is no mesningful difference between trans women and women when it comes to safeguarding risk?"

Again, your concern that TW are not treated unfairly just because there is no evidence that 100% absolutely proves their gender expereince is real seems very different to your lack of concern that women are being treated unfairly simply because the data that suggests very strongly there is something amiss has not been fully explained yet. Seems like the benefit of your doubt is always tilted one way.

As an aside, it strikes me how close the TRA position is to the argument oil producers and tobacco companies used to make - "yes there are differences in the statistics, but you don't know for certain we are the cause so you can't act on that (and we'll sue you if you say it out loud")