Westminstenders: Promises, promises(963 Posts)
Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.
There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.
Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.
All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.
The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.
Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.
The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.
Which leaves up shit creek.
At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.
That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.
The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.
It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...
Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.
This is real. This isn't a bluff.
Indeed though crime, the police can search the internet listening to Kylie rather than walk the streets - whilst schools and employers can report!
The prisons will probably be full of people committing thought crime against Brexit.
We’re all doomed.
Who will catch the prisoners?
Twitter is full of police dressed in rainbow party gear, walking past men in dog masks, getting upset over pronouns and lesbians whilst cracking out disco moves!
Just seen the announcement about more prison places. I think it’s meant to cost billions.
Where the fuck has Bozo found all this money from? If Labour planned this spending spree huge questions would be asked about where the funding is coming from.
That opinion poll is depressing. How anyone can look at the current political mess and think Bozo is the solution is beyond me.
When Theresa May lost the election, the cowards like Johnson didn't try to remove her. They left her as a lightning rod. That would save their careers. Just narcissist, cowardly f*ckers.
I think they are going to force a disorderly Brexit. That will force Ireland to put up checks and lead to an essential repartitioning of the Ireland. Then when they go for a trade deal, the backstop as it is will be gone. Maybe when Frost went over last week he said it won't be frictionless.
In those circumstances, I'd imagine Ireland having being f*cked again by lovely neighbours, would have to veto any future trade deal. I think Ireland probably knew they would be f*cked, but at least not let the f*ckee benefit from their harm.
Johnson getting a let off intro on BBC World. Said how he was going to increase spending on police, etc. Should always be a caveat how he promised police and then some as Mayor. Then did the opposite.
I think the Queen/Palace underestimate the forces that have been awoken in England.
Yup, it's all Blut Und Boden hereabouts now.
Post Brexit, all that land and buildings along with their income, the RF manage would help a struggling nation.
Prince Andrew has a dreadful reputation how can he represent the nation?
The RF are defenders of the faith, that seems over, CoE has gone woke, they believe men are women and have skelters now.
Charles was friends with Savile, he struggles with boundaries between crown and state. Charles cheated on his wife, how can he defend the faith?
William doesn't seem to want the job - part time - just wants the benefits. William doesn't go to church often, how can he defend the faith?
The Brexiteer response to the Queens irritation is simply going to be
Well if she isn't going to respect THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE then she can fuck back off to Germany, can't she ?
I think the Queen/Palace underestimate the forces that have been awoken in England. That's what you get for playing by the rules.
Latest OpiniumResearch poll (26 July):
CON: 31% (+1)
LAB: 28% (-)
BREX: 16% (+1)
LDEM: 13% (-3)
GRN: 5% (-)
Good points, BCF.
I bet secretly Cummings doesn’t think much of BJ at all.
Can this ridiculous house of cards hold up long enough to actually do some damage?
Interesting approach to polling from Yougov and the PV campaign red. I wonder what the predicted outcome is if the 18% transfer to the Brexit Party doesn't materialise? I do think, Brexit aside, it is highly likely that the LibDems will start to climb back towards their normal 10-15% level of support. This will definitely help them in Conservative / LibDem marginals which are pro-Remain. Their SW ones are pro-Brexit though. The other implication is that, as discussed in pp, a vote for the LibDems is very likely to split the Remain vote and help the Conservatives, in Conservative / Labour seats.
In summary it very much likes the PV, YouGov and the Independent are hoping to maximise LibDem support with primary objective of hurting Labour as per.
JM looks like he would eat himself if he could, that's not an attractive trait.
JM looks like on a first date he'd tell you about his protein shakes and then his car.
apparently confirmed that you are a straight woman then Adequate
There rest of us are on more dodgy ground!
....now Steve Backshall on the other hand......
and he seems a nice person too
I fancy JM but I also fancy Ramsey from Game of Thrones.
For some reason I’m attracted to total bastards if they are on the telly.
JM isn't my type. Bit too smooth / slippery looking!
Johnny Mercer has the look of a second hand car salesman.
A govt with a majority of only 1 - including 10 DUPs - won't last a year, anyway
The question for BJ is whether he chooses the best date, or lets Corbyn force it at a later time when the full efffects of No Deal have become apparent
He would lose votes to Farage is the GE is before Brexit, possibly even if held on 3 October, given how paranoid some Brexiters are at the "elite robbing" them of Brexit in the final hour
So imo still looks like 7 November is his best chance:
+ he'd have achieved Brexit and hence neutralised the most danger from Farage
+ No Deal effects would be very minor, because imports would be flowing and most people won't notice / care that exports have been held back to enable this
Does he have the nerve to choose 7 Nov ?
Or would he be quite happy to play at PM for a year or so, until Corbyn pulls the plug
and then go whistling off into a prosperous retirement, like Cameron ?
Remember, he doesn't give a shit about Brexit, country, even party - it's all about himself
This whole Brexit thing was and probably still is just a big jape to enjoy for a while and increase his future pay as a TV / media "personality"
@redtoothbrush, like you I read the report with scepticism. Having said that, there are genuine talks in place to limit Tory/BP parties chances of success and Johnson is off the starting blocks as the incumbent government with years of austerity behind them. Given the fact we are one quarter away from recession and they are talking about a bank holiday on 1st November to limit the immediate financial damage to the banks, I can't see Johnson wanting to campaign after the Brexit date.
He wants to be forced into calling an election now.
Mercer was an arrogant twat on Celebrity Hunted. Felt sorry for his wife. He does have that thing going on where someone has pleasant enough packaging but as soon as he opens his mouth its like 'ugh' and he turns into an instant troll creature you would touch with a barge pole.
Anyway this is interesting. Some constituency level polling...
Boris Johnson could lose over half of 20 key marginal seats between Tories and Lib Dems at early election, analysis shows
‘Given the volatility of recent general election campaigns it’s hard to see Boris Johnson opting for an early election as anything other than a mad gamble’
The polling by YouGov for the People’s Vote campaign – covering 20 constituencies with the smallest Tory majorities where the Lib Dems came second in 2017 – shows 11 of them of could fall from Tory control.
It suggests 30 per cent of those who backed Theresa May at the 2017 snap election would no longer do so. Of these, 10 per cent said they would now back the Lib Dems while a further 18 per cent would vote for the Brexit Party under Nigel Farage’s stewardship.
The People’s Vote campaign said Tories at risk include the Richmond Park MP Zac Goldsmith, who regained his seat from the Liberal Democrats at the election called by Theresa May in 2017.
Others constituencies such as St Ives, Cheltenham, North Devon, Cheadle, Lewes, St Albans and Hazel Grove could also fall to Jo Swinson’s party.
I cavet this heavily. It appears to be based on a GE pre 31st Oct, and none of these are particularly surprising.
Also Johnson is campaigning in other areas - he's going for the equivalent of the American Rust Belt - Trump's victory was unexpected as the Democrats campaigned in the wrong areas and lost in battle grounds they weren't expecting to.
Good news from the Good Law Project. Permission to proceed with the case to prevent the proroguing of Parliament.
I’ve just Googled Johnny Mercer - looks as though I might be gay as well. All the pictures have the same self-satisfied smirk, which doesn’t do much for me!
Regarding Her Maj, Bozo is way off there. The ‘people’ have too much affection for her and I thought it was the middle class ‘elites’ that are the enemy in his narrative? Could maybe have worked with Charles, everyone thinks he’s a bit odd.
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