Westminstenders: Promises, promises

[RedToothBrush]

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

[LonelyTiredandLow]

jasjas they are timing it so that something happens to "force" a GE. They've alluded to the fact they won't call one...but...

[BigChocFrenzy]

lonelytiredandlow Even those Brexit fanatics realise they need someone competent to actually do some work,
to try to mitigate the No Deal shitstorm.

[LonelyTiredandLow]

Off out to do dog walking duties. Check in later.
I'm suitably chastised BCF and will try to work out how to best 'disrupt' instead.

[DGRossetti]

Did anyone catch the mention on the Star Trek thread of the ST:TNG episode (which was censored when shown in the 90s on Sky ...) where Irish reunification was said to have happened in 2024 ?

memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Irish_Unification_of_2024

[BigChocFrenzy]

lonelytiredandlow Dog shit in the right place - piled outside No 10 ? - could be very disruptive

Start stockpiling ?

[LouiseCollins28]

I agree with Tobee (that's a rarity on here I think) If "No Deal" is to be averted from where we are now, the either Boris "moves" the EU "move" or the pro-Remain/anti No Deal "caucus" in Parliament rapidly need to resolve among themselves what they want and how they are going to progress towards it.

I'm not a Remainer so I'm watching more with interest than with the desperation some clearly feel about how this plays out. I expect some work is going on during the recess to figure this out/try to cobble something together but there are some fundamentals unresolved ATM. I expect something will happen but I am far from certain that the attempt will succeed.

First question: What's the Aim? So many political leaders and parties have differing and often competing aims. So is the aim?

• to "Stop Brexit"
• to Stop "No Deal"

LDs want one thing, Labour another, SNP a third, etc.

Parliament has STILL yet to give its support to the negotiated "Deal" or any of the alternatives offered even on an indicative (non binding) basis.

[LonelyTiredandLow]

Just quickly - yes I see that too. I also think they will use the shitstorm to their advantage (ripping up agri laws, workers rights etc) right under our noses. Oh you can't get enough food? We had better enable extended hour working contracts to get food to our tables. Ditto with crop failures - we will need extra pesticides to keep those precious crops safe...

[DGRossetti]

Incidentally (although I'm sure the EU needs no advice on this) the best thing for all concerned is for the EU to merely stay schtum, unless it's responding via an official mechanism. It's said all it has to say and any attempt to engage via headlines is bound to lose.

They need to "do a Corbyn" and let the UK press shadow box.

(Of course in reality they could be issuing press releases the length of War and Peace daily in French or German - they'd never make it to the UK, but we could read them ...)

[BigChocFrenzy]

louise imo, there is a majority in the HoC and the country to avoid No Deal,
from Leavers & Remainers, who could accept a "soft" Brexit

We need an extension to work out definite plans and then either proceed on an HoC vote, or first check if the voters agree

but that's just my take ....

[howabout]

BCF we are actually making the same point. No Deal is the Legal Default position under UK, EU and International Law. Triggering Art 50 triggers Leaving regardless of whether a Deal is reached.

[woman19]

ripping up agri laws

Brexit Means Pigshit

UK exports of pork to China have increased 50% in the last six months alone and much of that from Northern Ireland, where there could soon be nearly as many pigs as people

But more animals equals more slurry being spread on the land at unsustainable levels

www.channel4.com/news/northern-irelands-environment-threatened-to-meet-chinas-demand-for-pork

[BigChocFrenzy]

DG They (in Germany at least) are quietly finishing their own prepping,
while trying not to stare too hard at the disaster looming in the Uk

[LouiseCollins28]

Agree with that Big Choc. That sentiment would set us heading towards a "stop No Deal" path, IMO. I am as certain as you are that there is a Parliamentary majority for that.

The problem I foresee is that lots of the folks who will be advocating for action to stop "No Deal" ALSO want to stop Brexit happening at all. I think it would be very easy for their opponents to portray achieving the former as a mere "staging post" on the way to achieving the latter. Disentangling those 2 things, when it's plain as day to me that many advocates want both, is going to be very difficult.

[howabout]

My theory on Gove is the complete opposite to BCF. He feared that Boris and he could in fact get a 100+ majority and then the Tory Remainers would force them to accept and own BRINO as the ERG would not be able to negate them.

It wasn't that he didn't want BRINO. It was more that he didn't want the blame. In fact Boris was probably on board with the strategy as well. If TM had got 100+ majority and forced BRINO then they could come in to placate the masses afterwards. They are also both happy with the eventual outcome as TM has "proved" cake and eat it compromise is not possible. Therefore their joint decision to step aside when it was clear they lacked overwhelming PCP support was a case of Heads they win, Tails you lose.

Gove was unerringly loyal to TM but is now back at Boris' right hand despite having "stabbed him in the back".

[howabout]

woman I watched a programme recently highlighting that Denmark has a similar problem - they export bacon to us.

The Dutch dairy industry is overproducing and polluting the land with phosphates as a result. They have introduced phosphate quotas to cut production. The initial cause of overproduction was the ending of EU milk quotas and farm upscaling which adversely affected the milk price and in turn drove further overproduction to maintain incomes in the face of falling prices.

www.independent.ie/business/farming/dairy/the-dutch-dairy-dilemma-how-dairy-farmers-in-the-netherlands-are-coping-with-new-phosphates-regulations-37190525.html

[TheElementsSong]

The problem I foresee is that lots of the folks who will be advocating for action to stop "No Deal" ALSO want to stop Brexit happening at all.

That's not necessarily mutually exclusive, e.g. for me I have an order of preference of how I would like the world to be:

No Brexit
↓
BINO or Norway++ type Brexit
↓
Various other soft versions of Brexit
↓
↓
↓
No Deal Brexit
↓
Mad Max/Black Death
↓
Strike by global killer asteroid

[QueenOfThorns]

BCF, please don’t take away our fantasies of kicking Boj in the bum - we won’t actually do it, I promise, but it’s nice to dream...

In the meantime, I’m having an epic declutter and freezer defrost, then I’m going to prepare a bigly spreadsheet to help me plan my new stockpile with military precision.

[Peregrina]

I was thinking of throwing bananas at BlowJob. This seems appropriate since he's made his anti-EU stance about bananas.

I like the idea of a freezer declutter and to plan with military precision - it's all been a bit hit and miss so far with me.

[ThereWillBeAdequateFood]

please don’t take away our fantasies of kicking Boj in the bum - we won’t actually do it, I promise, but it’s nice to dream

I’m keeping my fantasy about Jeremy Corbyn stepping on a rake in his allotment. He ends up in a coma for six months - he’s fine in the end but it gives a proper Labour MP a chance to attempt to fix the mess while he’s out cold.

[DGRossetti]

I’m keeping my fantasy about Jeremy Corbyn stepping on a rake in his allotment

Of course Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated after his driver took a wrong turn - such is the way history is made.

Given the fact I read history for fun, I was fascinated to learn that the above atrocity was a direct result of the Ottoman empires decline and descent into regionalism. If we are talking about declining empires that are descending into regionalism ....

[Adesignforstrife]

Long time lurker/rare poster/name changer here. DH this morning (who has previously tolerated but not really believed in my Brexit prepping) suddenly said this morning: "what can we do to stop this?! I want to.....riot!".
He is not the rioting type at all. There's some useful calls to action already on this thread. But I will be following closely and joining any future petitions/marches as far as reasonably possible. And in the meantime I really just re-assess the Brexit prepping/start again.

[DGRossetti]

Meanwhile, are those fabled EU Workers right actually any use ?

www.theregister.co.uk/2019/08/06/oracle_srs_european_work_council_lawsuit/


...
In a judgment delivered last Friday afternoon, the UK Employment Appeal Tribunal ruled (PDF) that Oracle's "European Works Council", a product of EU directives and regulations, didn't have to be formally consulted before P45s were posted to the company's continental workforce.
...

Reminds me, I must put that chocolate fireguard on eBay, when the auction for the mortorbike ashtray has ended. (I started the business with the profits I made throwing arse-kicking parties for one-legged men).

[DGRossetti]

"what can we do to stop this?! I want to.....riot!"

The thing about revolutions, is they happen when people like this suddenly wake up and realise there is nothing they can do. We don't have any elections due. We have a relatively incorrupt police that would happily put a few holes in anyone who started playing up. Short of writing to your MP, going on marches, and spreading the word, there's nothing to be done. And I've been doing the last 3 for 3 fucking years, as has DW - in agony up and down the Mall twice for marches.

It's how systems work. By the time you realise the response is going wrong it's too late. It's why flying and extreme driving are so hard. You need to act before things start going wrong.

[DGRossetti]

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/aug/06/brexit-clinton-treasury-secretary-larry-summers-dismisses-desperate-uk-hopes-of-us-trade-deal

The former US treasury secretary Larry Summers has said he does not believe that a “desperate” UK would manage to secure a post-Brexit trade deal with Washington, as Dominic Raab, the new foreign secretary, heads to the US to scope out the potential for such an agreement.

Summers, who was a senior official under Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, said the UK was in a weak position when it came to negotiating with trade partners.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Tuesday: “Britain has no leverage, Britain is desperate … it needs an agreement very soon. When you have a desperate partner, that’s when you strike the hardest bargain.”

(contd).

[ThereWillBeAdequateFood]

Well I’ve just emailed my MP again.

I doubt it will help. He’s a Brexit at all cost Tory - to be fair to him his constituents did vote to Leave (57%) but they didn’t vote for no deal.