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Brexit

Westminstenders: Promises, promises

962 replies

RedToothBrush · 05/08/2019 23:26

Today polling showed that there was a majority in Scotland who support Independence. The 'Boris Bounce' really isn't universal. And this is a firm sign all is not well.

There is talk tonight that Johnson is planning to stay on as PM even if he loses a vote of no confidence in order to force No Deal through and prevent a government of national unity. Instead he would call a 'people v politicians' general election to be held shortly after we'd left the EU.

Johnson's willingness to defy parliament should not be discounted and should be taken seriously. Its highly likely in one way or another. No deal is technically illegal, but its also the default. This does not seem to be fully recognised by remainers. But this is a man who lied and continued to lie. And there is every sign that he would be willing to cause some sort of constitutional crisis. Especially if he really is like Trump. This is what authoritarians do - defy convention and rip up the rule book - because the powers that are suppose to hold them to account are too weak to hold them to account. Something that Johnson has already proved time and again. He has no respect for others.

All the signs are Johnson is in fully into campaigning for a GE already. He's touring the country and ignoring Europe. He's offering money for the NHS - its open to debate whether this is new money - the optics on this are all down to what you want to believe. Those who want Johnson will believe the promise; those who don't won't.

The penny hasn't fully dropped in parliament. There is talk of a vote of no confidence being called by Labour 'at the earliest opportunity' in September. The reality is its too little too late and is unlikely to work to have the desired effect and inside will play right into Johnson's plan. The failure of the Opposition to spot what he was likely to do, has been the story of the last 3 years, where Remainers have been reactionary and unable to anticipate what would happen next. Their lack of imagination and inability to look beyond their own rhetoric has been their undoing and may cost us all in the long run.

Meanwhile in Brussels, the EU unlike our Parliament have recognised the inevitability of no deal and if Johnson wants no deal there is no way to stop it. And that he has no inclination whatsoever to negotiate.

The expectation is still that the EU will have the backstop and the Brexit Bill of £39 billion as the requirement for the opening of trade talks if we no deal.

Which leaves up shit creek.

At the same time the new trade minister Liz Truss is full on libertarian and talking to the US with this in mind.

That would mean a bonfire of rights and standards which will horrify many. That means goodbye to workers rights, food standards and data protection.

The tech giants have the ears of Washington so British ideas of a tax on them are being seen as a block on a US trade deal.

It comes as the UK has joined a US coalition to protect ships in the Gulf - something we were originally given a snub against, and led to Jeremy Hunt saying we would join a European led force. Its not clear what, who or how the US uturn has come about...

Meanwhile our summer holidays are all getting more expensive... and this is just the start of it.

This is real. This isn't a bluff.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 09:59

Firms like Capita would do well after No Deal,

if the hard right Brexiters can carry out their aims of a Bonfire of Red Tape Rights
and no more ECJ to appeal to, when British law is against rights of the poor & vulnerable

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LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 10:05

ThereWill I actually believe remain would win a pv if there was no psyops - it would have the first time around. It is clear that we won't be getting another one of those and has been as soon as TM echo'd Leave rhetoric; they are taking us this way come hell or high water. I do think TM wanted the WA and avoidance of No Deal but she was a puppet for hardliners and there has been a long term plan to get BoZo in as PM.

I'm certainly under no illusions that this is a democracy. Any new elections are purely for show.

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derxa · 06/08/2019 10:07

.

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BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 10:10

"48% of Scots are opposed to Independence"

I wonder how solid that figure is and how much it would drop after a No Deal crash 🤔

following a referendum won by English votes overwhelming the large Scottish Remain vote
and with English Tory - and some Labour - MPs switching immediately afterwards to a scorched earth No Deal instead of the "Norway / EFTA" type Brexit that was talked up by Leave leaders

Look at the contrast between the influence of Scotland in the UK vs Ireland in the EU

5 million Irish people have the veto over the future relationship between 450 million in the E27 and the 65 million in the UK
because Brexit affects Ireland's core interests.

Scotland is not even allowed to call an Indy Ref without UK govt approval

The UK had the right to invoke A50 any time

  • the delay is entirely because Brexiters are demanding to keep the benefits of the EU and its other trade deals and agencies

    Scotland cannot vote against Westminster declarations of war ..... or trade treaties

    Scotland has no power to refuse Trident, nuclear missile transport, nuclear bases, power stations, fracking .....

    Easy to see which supranational construct lets its member nations have more rights, more say in what happens to them.
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BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 10:11

btw, I'm still having great trouble posting on MN
I gather some others are too ?

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LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 10:13

I'm still trying to figure out why Gove pulled the plug on BoZo first time around though. We've covered on these threads how women are often used to 'placemark' at these times then shot down and a male takes over. Was it thought at the time BoZo needed some distance from his campaign or was there something not quite in place yet? Maybe they just wanted TM to work her arse off and see what someone could actually get from EU (clearly BoZo was never going to put in that kind of grunt) and then cherry-pick from that? Just seems odd when Gove has history with hatred of the GFA and NI and the main vocalised block to WA is the Backstop...

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Justaboutdone · 06/08/2019 10:13

BCF I can see your comment in TIO but not in actual thread.

It seems to resolve itself when someone else posts.

Let’s see if me posting fixes it Grin

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BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 10:16

Our fantasy new govt would have to be an interim one dealing solely with Brexit
and not passing any other laws without the consent of all parties

It must agree that as soon as Brexit has been resolved, if this is before May 2022, then it would dissolve itself and call a GE under which parties would stand separately as normal (if they wished)

That would be essential to avoid Tory rebel worries of it being a leftwing Corbynite govt
and Corbynite fears of it being centrist or liberal Tory

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jasjas1973 · 06/08/2019 10:16

I’m really hoping there’s some serious scheming going on right now

Doubt that, they'll all be on holidays, with brexit a problem for another day, it really doesn't affect them.

MPs have shown time and time again they do not have the nerve to do much at all, that isn't going to change, so no VoNC or Revoke.

Any GE after brexit is going to be held whilst the UK goes through food/meds shortages and a currency crisis, likely as not food & fuel prices will soar, as most priced in either euros or dollars.

BJ wants to stay in power, i just don't see how a no-deal is going to help him achieve this... unless he plans to stay in office until May 2022, hoping that the worst will be over........

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tobee · 06/08/2019 10:19

I expect the other parties and remainer Tories are on their hols.

At the weekend, had a small family gathering, all staunch remainers. Someone advocated civil unrest. There were responses of "yeeesss!" And little cheers. "Hooray!" But we were all inwardly probably thinking "what, the 4 of us?" That's the problem, we're all too divided around the place. There is no cogent plan. All the remainer politicians are too split. At this late stage people in parliament plenty vehemently don't want to work with the SNP, Corbyn's Labour, moderate Tories, libdems, the Greens etc.

We, on here, the majority of whom appear to be very much voted remain, have different ideas about what we went next:- revoke, people's vote, soft Brexit.

Obviously it's not down to us (boo! Shame!)Grin

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howabout · 06/08/2019 10:20

BCF the Gina Miller case says otherwise or TM could have triggered Art 50 without Parliament. FWIW I think the Art 50 case was wrongly decided. The mirror image of the issue is that the EU and the UK Government argued the UK could not Unilaterally Revoke because of International Treaty Law. They Lost.

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LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 10:20

jasjas I've long suspected he will call a GE to be held within the first 2 weeks after No Deal; he can capitalise on the Leave vote and set a new national holiday before the hard times really hit.

He can literally sit and do bugger all (other than his 'not campaigning' for a GE) in relation to Brexit now and get exactly what he wants.

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LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 10:23

tobee it's akin to Years and Years again isn't it; we all just let it happen.

These threads are great because we get to vocalise, but any kind of planning for more is a legal risk. I think remainers aren't easily stirred to violent acts, but once the reality hits it won't matter which side you voted for; Christmas this year is going to be interesting.

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tobee · 06/08/2019 10:24

I'm on the app. I write my bit. Click "post" it says unable to post, re try or cancel? I press cancel. It, however, posts. But doesn't clear the text in the text writing box.🤷🏻‍♀️

I know lonely started her post earlier with "this is worth repeating " but I had it as having repeated 48 times. (I exaggerate)

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BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 10:26

"why Gove pulled the plug on BoZo first time around"

My theory:

  • This was an obvious shock to both Gove & BJ that Leave won - they had no plan for this.

  • Before, the plan was for BJ to take over as the reconciliation candidate for a bruised Tor party after Remain won

  • However, Gove - like Cameron - realised what a horrendous task Brexit would be
    He also realised BJ was a dreadful choice to carry it out - chaotic, incompetent, lazy, immoral ....

  • Unfortunately, by the time of the leadership election, it was clear May was completely powerless to proceed, sothe Tory fanatics got their BJ
    At this stage, Gove (on the road to Damascus !) decided it was his duty to stay and try to help the country through No Deal,
    rather than leaving it all to the Social Darwinist clique of Cummings, Raabs, Patel

    He is a bastard, but he is by far the most competent Brexiter and his stint at DEFRA seems to have given him a No Deal reality check.
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tobee · 06/08/2019 10:26

I know we don't advocate violence on this thread, etc etc, but right now, I really want to boot 🥾 Boris in the bum.

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Socksontheradiator · 06/08/2019 10:27

Thanks again RTB Flowers

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DGRossetti · 06/08/2019 10:35

.

Westminstenders: Promises, promises
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LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 10:37

I've also had daydreams about throwing eggs tobee Grin

Another thought; leavers will be the new LD's - enabling the Tories to put austerity (or whatever they will call it after Brexit) into hyper-drive.

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BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 10:38

Howabout The Gina Miller case was about the UK govt triggering A50 and doing so correctly under UK law
The decision to trigger has to be legally valid

However, once that was done, No Deal Brexit happens automatically after the due date
No further decision or consent is required under international law

A country getting itself into total chaotic disfunction and / or political deadlock does not invlidate A50 or other international law

The ECJ decision on unilateral revocation interpreted the (Lisbon) international treaties of the EU differently to the UK govvt & EU Commission
They did not use UK law for their decision

In neither case did UK law trump international law

If BJ manages to run out time until 11pm on 31st October, regardless of whether he is acting illegally under UK law,
the Uk will be out of the EU with No Deal.

It may be that if it is proved afterwards that UK law / constitutional procedure was broken - and a new UK govt requests this -
that the EU will find a way to wink and let the UK back in long enough to say approve the WA, or eevn Revoke (unlikely the latter)

However, that would be a political decision, not a legal one

It is v v unlikely that a future Uk govt could obtain that decision from an international court without the agreement of the EU

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Peregrina · 06/08/2019 10:39

The ultimate responsibility will lie with Cameron, May and Johnson, and those Tories who voted for Johnson.

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jasjas1973 · 06/08/2019 10:40

Lonely
Yes that may be his plan but he would need 2/3rds of MPs to support him in that and imho Labour would be crazy to assist.

Far better to let the Tories stew in their own mess, its not as if Labour could do much about any post brexit crisis.

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LonelyTiredandLow · 06/08/2019 10:41

BigChoc yes, that's along the lines of what I originally thought. However something doesn't sit right that he is now merrily working for BoZo. Brexiteers aren't exactly the kind to forgive and forget. Clearly he will be one of the fall guys but I'm surprised people like Cummings are happy to have him on the team.

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Rhubarbisevil · 06/08/2019 10:42

Brilliant Rosetti and absolutely true!

The next tweet is all about living under a bridge wrapped in newspaper.

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BigChocFrenzy · 06/08/2019 10:43

< sternly > Westministenders should bury any fantasies of bum-kicking, egg-throwing or milk-shaking

Instead, plan first for maintaining your own standard of living
and then
plan civil disobedience
plan disruption

În addition, Scotland and NI are likely to plan leaving FUKed behind

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