Why do we have more omicron cases than other countries?

[egglette]

Sorry if this has come up before. I saw an article earlier about omicron case numbers around Europe. Most countries seem to be in the low double figures, whereas we're approaching 5k. I also had a quick look at some foreign newspapers and it's not really headline news.

Do we test/sequence a lot more? Or do we really have that many more cases? Reminds me a bit of our general stats on cases/deaths. Seems odd that we would be doing so much worse than countries with very similar measures, populations etc. (as much as think our gov. has been exceptionally crap!).

I'm in Australia. I don't even live in a city, but our Omicron cases are nearing triple figures. (And it is very much headline news.)

how apt, I've just posted this on another thread, some parts of this 6 min interview may answer your question.

The UK has long cold winters that start early, but lacks the factors that keep Nordic countries relatively healthy. You also test a lot in the UK.

We test a lot and are looking for
It , won't be the same testing etc everywhere

Ah sorry to hear that, @Dishhh! Australia wouldn't have sprung to mind as somewhere that would be badly affected. Fingers crossed things settle soon.

And thanks, @murcimari - will take a look!

I'm in ROI. We don't seem to be as on top of the sequencing as you guys.

We test over 1.5 million people a day!!! You look for it you will find it.

I was under the impression we tested the sequencing of every test so caught a lot more cases than some countries?

I'm in Scotland so may be just us. We're currently isolating with a case in the house and were told we'd be called if it were O so they sequenced our results.

We are massively densely populated compared to many other places. Our school kids are stuffed into classrooms. I remember going to a state primary in the 80s. Our classrooms were much bigger with many more facilities than even the private school classrooms of today. Every inch counts now and that is no good for infection rates.

You do a lot more testing for variants than most European countries. I’m in France, and our lack of variant tracking compared to the U.K. has been acknowledged by the french government.

Have to adjust the # found by # tested. USA barely tests at all, for instance.

Italy & France have population size very close to UK, but test many fewer. USA has population 6 bigger than France/UK/Italy.

I am in SA, our numbers are higher.

I did comment on a different thread regarding the shortage of lft tests. Not a lot of countries offer these for free and just post them out like UK does. So there is no way we could test every day like you are (presumably) doing. We only test if we have symptoms, or for travel purposes.

So your numbers will automatically be higher as everyone is testing whether having symptoms or not.

No mitigations in schools, fairly lax mask wearing (to say the least) up until recently, no mitigations in concerts, nightclubs or sports events until very recently.

It's not difficult to work out why it's spreading so quickly here. It was always going to seed in the U.K. as we're a massive travel hub. The extent of spread is down to control measures and population density.

As above really. I think there's a myriad of reasons; there's no one main reason. To add another, we don't have many restrictions and others have more.

The testing for variants is obviously the main one wrt Omicron. And then the travel hub.

Cases in general are higher than many other countries for the reasons they have been for the last 18 months, lack of proper mitigations, a vaccine programme that has up until very recently ignored teenagers, people struggling to get boosters etc.

Number of testing not so much.

Particularly as you can do them yourself and don't need to even record the results. It's also not true that that much more testing is done than in other countries. In many European countries right now they're also up to almost a million a day, the difference being they're all done by the health authorities not at home, and are all automatically registered on the central system.

Those keen to say the Johnson govt has handled this well always use the number of tests as a ta-da moment, saying if you look for it, you'll find it. Only if it's there. And only if you look properly.

Likewise population density. England (specifically) is really not as densely populated as people think. There are the odd pockets, sure, but nothing like other major European states.

I’m on mainland Europe and I would say…

• The U.K. is a transport hub in the way some other countries are not
• It’s really densely populated. I never thought so particularly before leaving the U.K. but it really is. The first service station I hit in the summer after coming over in the tunnel was crazy full
• it sequences lots
• it has a vibrant media and politicians who accept that they (mostly) have to answer questions. Where I live the media puts up with non-answers all the time and there’s hardly any hard scrutiny

As you can see by the graph above, it’s because we test far more. And because we sequence those tests. I only know this because other posters have discussed this fact on other threads btw. This always makes us look really bad in terms of stats and numbers. But I think we are just leaders in testing.

When you add LFTs into the mix, we probably testing way, way more than most places. How many countries dish out LFTs like penny sweets? (which is a good thing btw)

I just remembered something else I read on another thread. Apparently the U.K. counts the number of positives both on lft and pcr. Ergo a person will be double counted etc. Or perhaps more than that. I’ve heard people saying they repeat the lft if they’ve had a positive to double check. So that could be 3 tests, perhaps more for some people.

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/epidemiological-update-omicron-data-13-december

It's nearly 1000 in Norway - and that'll outstrip us on a per 100,000 basis by a long, long way. The Danish figures (again given size of the whole popuiation) are also concerning

And of course, extent of sequencing varies, the highest (in terms of numbers) are being found in the countries which do the most sequencing.

Once it has arrived, countries see rapid exponential growth. It's still early enough for this to be a factor.

Everyone is going to be watching the numbers in the next couple of weeks, to see how the variant is spreading, and what that means for hospital admissions.

@Mummyoflittledragon

I just remembered something else I read on another thread. Apparently the U.K. counts the number of positives both on lft and pcr. Ergo a person will be double counted etc. Or perhaps more than that. I’ve heard people saying they repeat the lft if they’ve had a positive to double check. So that could be 3 tests, perhaps more for some people.

That doesn't apply for confirmed omicron cases, as that can be tested for only in a lab from the PCR sample

@Dolphinnoises

I’m on mainland Europe and I would say…

• The U.K. is a transport hub in the way some other countries are not
• It’s really densely populated. I never thought so particularly before leaving the U.K. but it really is. The first service station I hit in the summer after coming over in the tunnel was crazy full
• it sequences lots
• it has a vibrant media and politicians who accept that they (mostly) have to answer questions. Where I live the media puts up with non-answers all the time and there’s hardly any hard scrutiny

I think this plus testing ratio

@Mummyoflittledragon

I just remembered something else I read on another thread. Apparently the U.K. counts the number of positives both on lft and pcr. Ergo a person will be double counted etc. Or perhaps more than that. I’ve heard people saying they repeat the lft if they’ve had a positive to double check. So that could be 3 tests, perhaps more for some people.

This is not correct, if someone tests on LFT and reports their results and then on PCR their lateral flow test is removed from the results.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/about-data#change-to-reporting-of-daily-new-cases-from-21-may-2021

In France you only test when you have symptoms. A PCR. They don’t use LFTs. In the UK we test twice a week on LFTs looking for asymptomatic cases. You are going to find more cases that way.

Other countries sequence less. But where I live we also don’t count positive LFTs, or tests done at home. Only those administered by a trained medical professional go towards the official data.

The lack of contact isolation in the UK is concerning. I know it’s different for Omicron, but until you know it’s Omicron, your close contacts are free to go about their lives during what could be the incubation period.

One of my friends in the UK was in very close contact with 8 people last week - first at work (no distancing or mask wearing was possible), then Friday night at the pub. Saturday night one person tested positive. They ordered a postal test, arrived Monday morning, posted last night, the lab will analyse it today or even tomorrow if they’re busy. Only then, if it’s positive, will it be sequenced for Omicron.

Since Saturday night, another 6 of the 8 people in that group have tested positive. Yet the two ‘negative’ ones aren’t required to isolate, they’re out and about with absolutely no restrictions. They are free to go to the theatre, a pub or a nightclub, one of them is a school teacher so he’s going in every day. Without a mask, without anything.

It will 5 days since the initial onset of symptoms for person #1, to know whether it’s omicron or not. In the meantime, all the others have been socialising with people on the false assumption that they’re negative because ‘I’ve done an LFT at home’. The 2 left may well be negative. But everyone else was out infecting a few others, or they could be asymptomatic carriers, etc.

Where I live that wouldn’t be allowed - you’re a close contact, you take X number of PCRs, done by trained medical professional, and stay home for, I think now it’s 5 days. The results are analysed immediately and further contacts traced. It’s just a different approach.

Plus, the rates in the UK per million are much higher, so there will naturally be more cases. There is a lack of ventilation in public enclosed spaces, schools are crammed, proper mask wearing (medical/FFP grade) isn’t enforced.