Why do we have more omicron cases than other countries?

[egglette]

Sorry if this has come up before. I saw an article earlier about omicron case numbers around Europe. Most countries seem to be in the low double figures, whereas we're approaching 5k. I also had a quick look at some foreign newspapers and it's not really headline news.

Do we test/sequence a lot more? Or do we really have that many more cases? Reminds me a bit of our general stats on cases/deaths. Seems odd that we would be doing so much worse than countries with very similar measures, populations etc. (as much as think our gov. has been exceptionally crap!).

We also use the media as an effective behaviour tool - for compliance / take up etc

This means using data but also singular events every day to push the story

I think Aus feels similar

Maybe other countries do - I don’t really look

No masks, kids crammed into schools, people in shops, or really any other measures again until recently? Yes, lots of testing, yes travel hub, but… yeah.

@DobbyTheHouseElk

In France you only test when you have symptoms. A PCR. They don’t use LFTs. In the UK we test twice a week on LFTs looking for asymptomatic cases. You are going to find more cases that way.

We use lateral flow in France. All the time. How do you think people get 15 minute test results at the chemist's? It's not mega fast PCRs.

Odd. My friend in France told me that they don’t have LFTs in France. PCR only.

So do you go to the chemist for one? Or do you have a box at home like we all do in the uk?

@DobbyTheHouseElk

In France you only test when you have symptoms. A PCR. They don’t use LFTs. In the UK we test twice a week on LFTs looking for asymptomatic cases. You are going to find more cases that way.

No one, anywhere, finds any omicron cases by LFT.

It takes lab testing.

Total numbers of all tests aren't the relevant measure here. It's proportion of positive PCRs thatbare cinfirmed as omicron.

At some point, they'll deem all cases to be omicron, but will keep sequencing a proportion of all postivive tests (just as we've always done) to be on the watch for what the virus does next

Our official data includes both LFTs and PCRs

But depending on which tables of which figures youbare usung they are reported separately - there are whole pages explaining the various methodologies, readily discoverable on google

Do be wary of weasel wording - that both types of test are counted is not a synonym for both being reported in the same way

It’s not the testing per se, but the sequencing, I guess; I’d be interested to see data on how much different countries sequence. This is testing per 1000.

Not sure if it’s still the case but recently the Sanger Institute had more sequencing capacity than the entire of the Southern Hemisphere. If you’re going to sequence everything that moves, you’ll find it.

@gsaoej

We are massively densely populated compared to many other places. Our school kids are stuffed into classrooms. I remember going to a state primary in the 80s. Our classrooms were much bigger with many more facilities than even the private school classrooms of today. Every inch counts now and that is no good for infection rates.

I don't think we have knocked down all our schools and built smaller ones since the 1980s! My school and dd's school and most of the schools I know were built long before the 1980s.

@murcimari Thanks for posting this, seems to make a lot of sense.

I'd say that that there will be more cases, or at least spreading faster in the uk than some other countries due to various factors. These could be anything from the climate, travel hub, etc but also that
measures in place are not as strict as elsewhere( no attempt to prevent spread in schools for example). However because the uk tests/ sequences so much more the numbers/ difference will seem greater than in reality.
Each country will have its own path and will have moments during this pandemic where the population feels particularly negative about the situation and other times feels less so.

We test 1 million to 1.25 million a day plus we sequence more than other countries plus all the usual reasons transport hub of London etc.

Many other places had stricter rules.

In Singapore they arrest people if they aren't wearing a mask. No messing!

@PAFMO bit the uk has done many many more tests thats a fact
Even people in eu countries have acknowledged that , its not hard to find the figures
We are also one of the top ones for sequencing so we will find more
Also population against land mass is so much more than other countries with similar populations

Also as a travel hub more cases would have gone through Heathrow (and the likes of Amsterdam) and then fed out. The majority of our cases are in London at the moment which makes sense. Scotland had a lot of travel with COP26.

South Africa have really strict mask rules (even in the car when by yourself) so at the moment it is going to be spreading out from travel places

@DazzlePaintedBattlePants

Not sure if it’s still the case but recently the Sanger Institute had more sequencing capacity than the entire of the Southern Hemisphere. If you’re going to sequence everything that moves, you’ll find it.

Last number I heard here was 60,000 a week

Not sure if that’s changed or where it fits wrt other countries

@JinglingHellsBells not sure I want a government having that much control though, be careful what you wish for

Number of tests taken will also go up when more people have symptoms, in all countries, so it's not as simple as looking at number of tests and saying "we test more".

What's in some ways more useful than number of tests is percentage of tests that are positive.
If you look at the graph for England we've been around 10% of a couple of months now, but I don't know offhand how that compares to other countries, but I do know it's recommended to be under 3%.

The Netherlands have been in semi lockdown for a while now, it won't stop omikron but it will not spread as fast.

how apt, I've just posted this on another thread, some parts of this 6 min interview may answer your question.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKHYkHTRTnM

@murcimari Thanks for the great clip. I nearly fell off my chair to finally hear someone talking common sense - and even mentioning Vitamin D!

@Mummyoflittledragon

I just remembered something else I read on another thread. Apparently the U.K. counts the number of positives both on lft and pcr. Ergo a person will be double counted etc. Or perhaps more than that. I’ve heard people saying they repeat the lft if they’ve had a positive to double check. So that could be 3 tests, perhaps more for some people.

If you repeatthe test are you meant to log all the results? Id assumed you only do the final one, have I been doing it wrong?

I do remember a back that there was a correction to remove lft and per resuts for the same person, I hope they haven't gone back to double counting.

Thank you for this thread - very helpful. (Apart from the clown who said classrooms were bigger in the 80s! A lot was better in the 80s, but extreme rose-coloured glasses to think that classrooms have shrunk today! In my class in the 1970s there were 42 pupils...one teacher and we were super-squashed in.)

@doublemonkey

how apt, I've just posted this on another thread, some parts of this 6 min interview may answer your question. www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKHYkHTRTnM

@murcimari Thanks for the great clip. I nearly fell off my chair to finally hear someone talking common sense - and even mentioning Vitamin D!

Professor Dalgliesh stood as a UKIP candidate and made a statement saying that the NHS would collapse due to high numbers of EU immigrants. I'm not convinced his opinion is going to be measured, factual or accurate.

@Dishhh

I'm in Australia. I don't even live in a city, but our Omicron cases are nearing triple figures. (And it is very much headline news.)

I had no idea! I thought you’d kept covid out 🤦🏻‍♀️

I just assumed we are looking for it and testing more. It sounds like omicron will be the worldwide dominant variant within weeks so I’m not sure any prime minister or head of state is sitting around thinking England is slightly ahead, what dickheads. I imagine they’re anticipating the tsunami is coming their way too and trying to figure out how to manage it. Just as we are.