Debunking False Stats On MTF Sexual & Physical Assault Rates

[CleopatraSelene]

I sometimes go on the UK trans reddit to see what the new 'evidence' they are brandishing is, and recently I saw several studies doing the rounds which give suspiciously high sexual & physical assault rates for MTFs. I thought I'd link them here to debunk- I checked & can't find them on previous threads, though I may have missed..

https://kmdlaw.com/blog/sexual-violence-statistics-in-transgender-and-non-binary-communities/

https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/press/ncvs-trans-press-release/

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5564039/

<a class="break-all" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20250122095419/ovc.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh226/files/pubs/forge/sexual_numbers.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://web.archive.org/web/20250122095419/ovc.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh226/files/pubs/forge/sexual_numbers.html

The fifth was about preteen childhood abuse so I didn't include as that's a different issue where the abuse rare may be higher, as we know..☹️

The Web Archive one has these footnotes with sources.

<a class="break-all" href="https://web.archive.org/web/20250118131854/ovc.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh226/files/pubs/forge/sexual_notes.html#_edn2" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://web.archive.org/web/20250118131854/ovc.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh226/files/pubs/forge/sexual_notes.html#_edn2

The first thing I'd say is that obviously it's US so even if rates were higher, that wouldn't be relevant to UK. I'm still sceptical of the data though. Not all the sources are published.

The pmc one again is US. It seems like the participants had enrolled for a counselling programme: this would presumably attract assault survivors disproportionately?

Not to be dismissive, but many trans persons are involved in sex work. Approx half of transgenders murdered globally are based in Brazil, where nearly 100% of those murdered are sex workers who are killed by their pimps or lovers. (At least acc to research I read a few years ago, so based on deaths in 2021-22 if I recall correctly).

On the basis of the higher than normal engagement with the sex industry I feel that comparing cis and trans population figures is overly simplistic and creates skewed comparative data. If you look at the data for sex workers 68% experience rape, 74% experience client violence (acc to SASH London, so based on a UK based sample, so admittedly this may also be skewed) but it’s indicative enough that it begs the validity of trans v cis comparisons without reference to occupation and social demographics.

What I think data about violence towards transgender individuals does tell us is that they are vulnerable and not enough is being done to support them on a local level. Whether this is because of comorbid psychological and psychological illness - the MH issues that underly their feeling that they are trans, undiagnosed ND conditions, drug addiction - or the lack of social support (such as alienation from family) that leads them into sex work etc is not clear and studies need to be done and funding put in place.

Any death is tragic, but I genuinely do not feel transgender persons are more vulnerable to rape/violence/murder than the average member of the ‘cis’ population.

Great points. I think the PMC article had quite a few sex workers being counselled : I'll check tomorrow.

I know a lot of the time transwomen are poor/drug addiction etc esp in Brazil and sell sex often to pay for surgeries.

I do get the impression that the small minority of women in the sex trade who are happy hooker-style escorts sometimes have narcissistic tendencies and like feeling powerful/worshipped (sometimes due to past trauma, sometimes not).

I wonder if a similar thing might draw a few TW to it. Esp as many TW seem to like trying to pass & have sex by deception with men without them knowing. This is more likely in a quick transaction than a long term relationship.

I think the Williams Institute Survey included something like 430k people. Around 400+ were trans. It’s obviously very difficult to get a true comparison when the subset is so small.

Started looking at this one

williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/press/ncvs-trans-press-release/
Transgender people over four times more likely than cisgender people to be victims of violent crime - Williams Institute (ucla.edu)

The headline for the original article is - Transgender people over four times more likely than cisgender people to be victims of violent crime

The data for the headline appears to come from this paper

Gender Identity Disparities in Criminal Victimization: National Crime Victimization Survey, 2017-2018 - PubMed (nih.gov)

The four to one claim in the Williams Institute paper appears to come from this statement

Transgender people experienced 86.2 victimizations per 1000 persons compared with cisgender people's 21.7 per 1000 persons

But note that the language from the original paper has been changed - original paper uses victimizations but the Williams Institute article uses the term violent crime

The original paper does define the term criminal victimization but not general victimization

Anecdotal data and small-scale studies suggest that transgender populations are at a heightened risk of criminal victimization,1 which is defined as any action by others that violate laws affecting oneself or one’s property.

So it looks as though victimization is quite a broad category involving both person and property. It is unclear if victimization might be a broader category that includes things the victim perceives as a crime

Either way, the Williams claim of four times more likely to be the victim of violent crime seems to be an overstatement of what the report actually says

Given that most people claim they don't report sexual assaults in general (an estimated of only 18% of women do in the UK) self reporting surveys albeit highly problematic are often the only closest indicator of rates. IE incarceration rates aren't a reliable indicator of offending rates.

Whilst it's important to keep in mind the deficiencies in self reporting surveys, that applies universally not just on trans people's experiences. It might be politically expedient to minimise sexual violence against trans people by weaponising unconfirmable data but this works both ways that the #metoo 'doubters' will only be too happy to exploit.

This might be a timely reminder that misguided efforts to protect women can end up hurting them even more.

But that confounding variable could also be countered by trans women limiting their social visibility as a consequence of fear or that they don't 'date' as much the average woman because of a comparatively limited pool of suitors.

Many factors could come into play that are very tricky to untangle.

From same Gender disparities paper

In July 2016, the BJS began identifying transgender people among NCVS respondents aged 16 years or older.3 Gender identity was measured with 2 questions: sex assigned at birth (male, female, and don’t know) and current gender identity (male, female, transgender, or none of these). Respondents are categorized as transgender if they identified as transgender or their current gender identity was male or female and was different from their assigned sex at birth. Respondents are categorized as cisgender if their current gender identity matched their assigned sex at birth. In the 2017–2018 NCVS, about 0.10% (n = 420) people were thus classified as transgender and 99.9% (n = 435 061) were cisgender.

The approach used to separate out the transgender cohort seems sensible

The numbers of members of each cohort

not transgender - 435,061
transgender man (TIF) - 181
transgender woman (TIM) - 188
prefer not to say - 51

This is odd because an estimated 1% of people aged 13 and over in USA are trans. This would suggest that far fewer than expected people from the trans community are suffering victimization - if the spread of victimization was even between populations then you would expect a 1% reported figure.

The small number of people in the transgender cohort leads to the wide 95% confidence bands in this graph (below)

So whilst the general population data is reasonably accurate, the same can't be said of the transgender statistics. It would have been useful if this were pointed out in the Williams Institute article (and others)

The other really important point to bear in mind is that being a victim is not the same as harmless. Vulnerability is a slippery concept.
Men are more likely to be murdered or seriously assaulted than women. They are also more likely to be murderers or commit violent crime.
In addition - although I can't find stats on it at the moment - I am fairly sure that prisoners and criminals are more likely to have been victims of serious crime than the general population. (I know I have read this but can't find it.)
So again even if this is true it does not automatically mean that trans people are less like to be perpetrators.
And it certainly does not entitle them to enter female spaces.

By the same token, different groups of men offend at different rates according to age, socio economic status etc including straight men committing more crimes than gay men with some studies suggesting that gay men have lower rates of criminal behaviour, including physical aggression, compared to heterosexual men.

This. Also curious to see within these statistics how much of this violence is committed by other trans people.

I looked into the williams institute some time ago. The press release is a very dishonest one as posters have already noted.

The 'four times' sound bite though keeps being used and it gets used here in the UK as well by those who seek to influence decision making. I will post those using it just this year in the UK in a different post.

Here is a quote that keeps appearing on these threads and in media:

”Transgender people are over four times more likely than cisgender people to experience violent victimization, including rape, sexual assault, and aggravated or simple assault”

It was from this press release that has the head line:

'Transgender people over four times more likely than cisgender people to be victims of violent crime.'

williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/press/ncvs-trans-press-release/

I have a few issues with this press release. I think it has been used widely and extensively since it was released. I believe this document discusses those crime statistics

escholarship.org/content/qt7c3704zg/qt7c3704zg.pdf?t=qqfomk&v=lg

I looked at the data behind this. It refers to 369 trans people vs 435 061 people who were not trans identified in a study. That is 0.0008 (0.08%) . That is not a population that you could draw many confident conclusions from. And it would be ridiculous to make the comparison.

What adds to the lack of trust you can put into this sound bite statement is when you think about this from the point of view that women around the world who admit they don’t bother to report their sexual assaults and rapes. Because they have no confidence that they will get justice AND not be vilified in the process.

What % of females actively reporting their attacks vs current trend of not bothering to report would decimate that 369 figure?

And that number cannot be accurately depicted in this point either;

Sure this 'maybe'. However, I believe the huge number of women telling us they don’t report.

This article is misrepresenting the reality.

However, this is the statement that keeps appearing.

”Transgender people are over four times more likely than cisgender people to experience violent victimization, including rape, sexual assault, and aggravated or simple assault”

Including! Notice it says ‘including’!

Not ”Trans people are 4 times more likely to experience violent attacks including rape and sexual assault.”

What was NOT included was a handy breakdown of what constituted the crimes against trans people were. What was the bar for a hate crime being committed for instance? Misogyny? Does that fit the definition that holds for transphobic hate crimes?

Based on 369 people, I am not going to delve so far into that national dataset to look for it. I don’t have the will. Maybe if someone wishes to prove their point, they could link to that data with the breakdown of the actual crimes reported for those 369 people.

“One in four transgender women who were victimized thought the incident was a hate crime compared to less than one in ten cisgender women.”

How many females being taught how to accurately assess the motivation against them as to whether it constituted a hate crime, or indeed using the very same frames of reference as trans people do but based on sexism, and then reanswering that same survey would again make that point meaningless? If there is no 'hate crime' for misogyny the comparison is meaningless?

Do the people writing these papers/press releases or using this to support their points understand the significance of what centuries of oppression of females has done on being able to accurately assess the motivation of crimes against our sex?

I am beginning to. The trans lobby groups are informing my learnings. Because of what they classify as ‘transphobic hate crimes’ when I look at what I have experienced as a female… wow! I sure have overlooked a huge amount of what I just waved away as crap from males.

And that the group who are trans could include many of those reporting abuse that includes misgendering and perceived micro-aggressions. Gosh, imagine if women reported all the hateful things said and done to them on a daily basis.
Crimes that cause harm and pain to anyone should be fully investigated and justice served.

But if a claim such as ”Trans people are 4 times more likely to experience violent attacks including rape and sexual assault.” is going to be made by any institution or poster, it needs to be based on some very robust data. And it isn't.

Here are places this sound bite of 'four times' has been used.

GenderGP has linked the press release that I posted on their site. From what I can find, the four times only refers to that Williams Institute press release.

Trans People at Four Times Greater Risk of Violence Than Cis People

https://www.gendergp.com/anti-trans-violence-on-the-rise/

" Trans people are more likely than cis people to be victims of a violent crime. Anti-LGBTQ+ hate crimes are also on the rise. This violence influences not only their mental and physical well-being but also when they decide to start gender-affirming healthcare.

Research indicates that trans people are at significantly greater risk of violence than their cis counterparts

A 2021 study published by the Williams Institute at UCLA School of Law found that trans people are four times more likely to experience violence and abuse compared to cis people. Around one in every four trans women who were victims of a violent crime believed it to be due to their gender identity. In comparison, only one in every ten cis women believed it to be due to their gender. Half of all victims of violent crimes did not report it to the police. "

Here is the Metro, earlier this year.

'A 2021 US-based Williams Institute study found that, in the year 2017-18, trans people are four times more likely than cis people to experience violence, including sexual assault and rape.'

https://archive.ph/Ceb9Z

Article by Ugla Stefanía Kristjönudóttir Jónsdóttir aka 'Owl' Fisher. A male who declares that he is a feminist

_

The Williams Institute never point out the actual numbers involved in the press release. It is a PR exercise and it worked very very well influence-wise. The points from the press release have been used extensively to shape decision maker's perception.

We see the 'four times' soundbite used even here in the UK when I have not found any UK basis for the reference to 'four times'. So when I see 'four times' mentioned now, I assume it is from the Williams Institute information.

The limitations on that calculation should have always been made clear.

I think there is a women's UK prisoner study somehow that showed this. I will look too. If I remember correctly, female people (ie, including juvenile female prisoners) in the UK prison system had a much higher prevalence of being victims of serious crime and domestic abuse themselves.

What arguments are the transactivists making off the back of these analyses?

I noticed on the KMD law link that they use a comparative ratio of "one in five women and one in 71 men will be sexually assaulted in their lifetimes.'

I call bollocks for that 1 in 5 stat. I had a conversation with a group of women the other day and it quickly became clear that this is so much higher. All 6 of us had experienced what would be considered sexual assault, but none of us ever thought to report it. Because as women, we just wrote it off as being typical. Of course, these were not aggravated incidents and were touching, grabbing and inappropriate acts.

No one should be experiencing sexual abuse or assault. However, if statistics are going to be used to raise awareness of one group's experiences, it certainly doesn't support those statistics if women's experiences are dismissed like this.

I think it’s probably a lot higher than 1 in 71 men too.

Not to do a What about the Men, obvs, just pointing to the likelihood of the statistics being unreliable.

Quite possibly you are right about the figure for male people Eresh.

Having a very quick look at the document referred to in the KMD law link, I also think that whoever wrote that content just threw in content that was not collected using the same methodology as the content the rest of the post refers to.

This is where they got the information and there are three references that they used listed on this document.

https://www.nsvrc.org/sites/default/files/publications/2019-02/Transgender_infographic_508_0.pdf

The information is absolutely right to be used to raise awareness, the issue needs to be addressed. However, the leveraging of the comparisons with women and men was only done to make appalling outcomes for this group look even worse, when the reality is likely to be very different if the same method of data collection was used for those groups.

What we DO know is that for the last number of years, 'trans' has been included as a statistic and 'trans' people have been encouraged to report report report so build up the stats which are 'included' in any 'studies', whereas with women, not only are they not considered worthy of recording as a statistic, they have to actually die and die below a certain age to even be counted in any 'studies'. And we know that most crimes, assaults, rapes aren't even reported so there is no way any study could even produce documented evidence in the first place.

There seems to be confusion over which historical figure should be credited but I think the saying “there’s lies, damn lies and statistics” might apply in this instance.

As PPs who are very experienced in looking at studies above point out, the findings and analysis from this survey are highly questionable and are repeatedly being misrepresented and misapplied.

Crimes against women are known to be under reported and ignored by police on a significant scale. 1% of reported rapes even get as far as a charge.

By contrast we regularly see efforts to inflate reports of crime and violence against trans people. Within the reported 2630 hate crimes against trans people in 2020/21 are included stickers they don’t like, ‘misgendering’ and being refused service.

The facts should speak for themselves and I think they do - when they are separated from the lies.

Thats the key point.

Barbie Kardashian, Sarah Jane Baker, Katie Dolatowski, are all vulnerable, and the first two at least appear to have trauma histories.

So they may need more care in prison, separate facilities, etc.

What their vulnerabilities do NOT mean is that they get put in with women.