The Autism Curve

[IwantToRetire]

What do the data showing a steep rise in autism diagnoses reveal - and hide?

A 20-year study in the UK showed an astonishing eightfold rise in new autism diagnoses on an exponential curve.

We hear from the study’s author Ginny Russell and ask how the numbers compare in other parts of the world.

And Professor Joshua Stott explains how a surprising discovery at a dementia clinic led him to calculate that that enormous rise in diagnoses may still undercount the country’s autistic population by as much as 1.2 million.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002bszl

This comes up on so many threads whether in relation to children and school, or children and gender identity, and ourselves, that I thought I would post a link.

I heard part of the first episode broadcast today and it seemed very much looking at facts, or rather at what can we say is a fact.

ie is the growth in diagnosis of autism because there is a real increase, or because of past failures to diagnose.

So not sure where it will end up, or even have a conclusion.

On radio 4 at 13:45 each week day this week or all episodes on iPlayer.

And if of course by the end strange BBC type conclusions are being drawn, just as well to have mumsnetters on the case to write in and put them right!

There is a trend at the moment of people trying to suggest that some autistic people don’t really have any struggles and that NT people pay for a diagnosis of autism so that they can get disability benefits. It’s not true. And it’s encouraging people to direct bullying behaviour towards the autistic community.

What is happening is that people are realising that their child is autistic, sooner because of access to social media.

I don’t have a great deal of knowledge around this, bar working with some children with ASD, but I’m curious if others here know more about about the possible impact of environmental factors. Can we rule in or out things like microplastics, toxic chemicals in foods etc?

That’s because people who are not autistic don’t belong on the scale at all.

I first remember hearing of many children in Eastern Europe Orphanages with the condition and thinking it could be related to a lack of one to one human interaction. (1970 - 1080s)

Attachment disorder can present in similar ways to autism. As can foetal alcohol syndrome - a condition that is as common in the UK as autism.

Learning disability is a separate thing. Yes, the assessment will seek to find out if that is part of the diagnosis. Of course some autistic people will have higher care needs than others. But you can be an academic and still struggle with day to day tasks.

Of course they do; everyone has degrees of sensory processing, behaviour, social interaction, repetitive behaviour, language development etc including many people with other conditions such as FAS, Attachment disorder, ADHD, Learning disabiliy, fragile X….

Yes, autistic women in particular are often wrongly diagnosed with BPD.

If you’re one of those people who thinks that everyone is on the autistic spectrum then you are categorically wrong.

Low functioning referred to comorbid learning disability. Being an academic and struggling with day to day tasks is a different order of difficulty to profo7nd autism that requires three people to support you before you can step foot outside your front door.

You just presented a circular scale with a range of linear measures on which everyone will sit. Are you now saying it is wrong?

This. Anyone who spends time with any autistic people or has autistic family members will be able to spot the autistic older relatives very easily!

Really interesting thread OP. Thank you for sharing!

Over a hundred ‘autism genes’ have already been identified. Autism is not a single condition at all but a description of a collection of symptoms that form part of a large range of conditions - each with its own profile of so-called comorbid conditions that are not comorbid at all but are also symptoms of that particular condition. Grouping everyone with a specific collection of symptoms together and calling them autism, whilst calling other symptoms ‘comorbid’, hides the fact that they have different conditions.

Of course the whole autism industry is too powerful to wish to be split like that. They prefer to force team with other conditions as ‘neurodiversity’ then ignore those other condition when it comes to getting supports.

No. It was an example of how autistic people have specific difficulties in some areas and specific strengths in others. NT people don’t tend to have spikey profiles and they don’t have communication difficulties. It’s really not that difficult to understand.

At no point have I said that some autistic people don’t have higher care needs than others.

Are you suggesting foetal alcohol symdrome, attachment disorder and fragile x don’t exist?

What do you mean by NT? Who are those people?

I’m not engaging with you any more because you’ve clearly got an agenda of your own. Dear me…

So unable to engage. Please tell me who are NT people?

It's not all one cause, right?

• The criteria and conceptualisation of autism changes each time the ICD and DSM are updated
• Increased awareness leads to more people seeking diagnosis for themselves or their children, in a self-reinforcing loop
• Base level autism levels are probably going up at least a small amount due to things like more older parents which increases the likelihood
• The increasing demands and complexity of modern life makes more people functionally impaired

And people who say it's all genetic are only half right. What genes get expressed depends on a lot of environmental factors.

See, this is what confuses me. What exactly is autism? From the NHS websites, I only understood it's only autism if it's a problem, otherwise it's not... is this the actual cut-off? In which case, the more you think it's a problem, then it becomes more of a problem... (like a lot of mental health issues)

Happy for someone to clarify/correct me!

Both my ds and I were diagnosed by the NHS and had a similar assessment as you (along with all the pre-assesment reports) yet most of the kids I know who have had private diagnoses were lucky to spend half an hour with 1 dr before they were given a diagnosis.
Personally, I believe that the huge increase in diagnosis is down to a combination of things.
1st, the backlog of women who were refused a diagnosis due to being female or misdiagnosed as BPD getting accurate diagnosis.
2nd, the changes that are slowly happening to diagnostic assessments to pick up asd in females.
3rd, the scrapping of the asbergers diagnosis and including it in asd
4th, the rise in dodgy private diagnosis
5th, people who are not autistic self IDing as autistic as its now a identity and recognised (by the scot gov) as a gender identity (auto gender) 😡🤬😡🤬🤬🤬🤬
6th, and most controversially poor parenting (too much screen time, lack of socialising, gental parenting etc) being misdiagnosed by pushy parents wanting an excuse for the poor behaviour of their dc which they won't correct.
Then ofcourse you have the somewhat crank theory that asd is the next evolutionary step for humans (as told to my ds by some twat at the asd one stop shop in fife)🤨
Basically I think we need to go back to the drawing board and separate out the different types of asd from the single all encompassing diagnosis. I preferred the old system that whilst it wasn't great atleast denoted the different levels of issues, ie asbergers, high, moderate and low functioning. I was given a high to moderate functioning diagnosis whilst my ds was given a moderate to low functioning diagnosis, which I felt and still feel denotes the different levels of difficulties that both my ds and I face in our day to day life. A one size fits all diagnosis lumps people like my nephew who graduated uni, has held done a job for year's and is married ( he has asbergers) in with people like my ds who will never be able to live alone.

It's clearly down to genetics. But aren't all conditons on the rise now? because of better access to healthcare and diagnoses? The prevelance of endometriosis has gone from 1.9% of women in 2015, to 10% of women in 2025.

To me there are massive parallels between neurodiversity as a belief system and gender identity. The science in both is very flakey, and doesn’t draw definite conclusions, much less actually apply these to every individual undergoing diagnosis. Both are allegedly brain differences, or subsets of brain types, with very little concrete evidence for this. The identity element is also there - the fact it sort of gives a person a ‘clan’ to belong to, which feels different and ‘other’ from ‘typical people’ although what typical is, nobody seems to know. The fact they’re both treated as disabilities, but not disabilities, but need medical treatment, but is a natural variation and just who they are… again, no one agreement and each idea contradicts the other. Plus the huge social rise in both of them, with the symptom net ever widening and the massive push for people to be ‘trained’ and ‘aware’ at work and even outside of work, so as not to offend. Kids who previously seemed fine and typical, suddenly identifying as ND/trans and the parents simply going along with this and saying they must’ve been masking as toddlers(!). The huge overlap between trans/ND and other mental conditions which seem to go unexplored.

This isn’t me saying autism doesn’t exist. It clearly does. I can think of about 2 people I knew growing up who most definitely to even the hardest of non-believers, were clearly autistic. And there’s no denying non verbal kids etc are not disabled. Of course they are.

But this has all grown far faster than the time needed to really understand the issue, ensure the diagnoses are correct etc

I fear it’ll be a transgender all over again

I agree that it’s for lots of reasons, so I don’t know why anyone would be surprised by the increase in diagnoses. It really pisses me off when the government pretends it’s not happening or not real. Like with mental health issues in young people. It’s a real disabling thing that is happening, a major public physical and mental health issue with impacts on people’s lives and yet those in power want to be seen to ‘crack down on’ things like PIP. The rate of fraud on PIP is apparently 0-% it’s very hard to claim but they want to make it harder. Instead of making more jobs that are managed in a disability friendly way.

The fact it potentially takes 6 hours and 4-6 clinicians to diagnose shows there is not a clear cut-off but a matter of judgement in many cases (in others a diagnosis can be made as soon as a child enters the room). When DSM-5 criteria was first proposed it was felt many who were previously diagnosed as Aspergers would no longer meet the criteria. Clearly, that turned out not to be the case but rather it has been interpreted to fall wider.