Will 2025 will be the year the trans trend crashes?

[TheywontletmehavethenameIwant]

"Those of us who persist in believing that reality is real will grind our teeth, as we’re threatened by activists telling us to ‘be kind’ or else. But make no mistake, we are now finally winning."

How the Cass Review changed everything - spiked

Roll on 2025.

🎯

The outcome of the recent For Women Scotland case in the Supreme Court ( verdict hopefully early in the new year) will be pivotal in determining whether a GRC effectively changes a person’s birth sex to the new identity ‘for all purposes’ such that all subsequent statutory references to ‘women’ exclude trans men and include trans women ie natal males with a GRC as female.

If this is the court’s decision - if they find for the Scottish government - I think this would mean for example, that trans men would have no maternity protections and that any woman with a GRC as male would not be subject to restrictions in the Abortion acts. Aside from these extreme examples, I think it would mean an end to single sex protections of all kinds as anyone with a GRC would count as GRC sex for all purposes and since you can’t ask to see a GRC, any individual would in effect have access to any space.

The case is a necessary evil imo, we need to bring matters to a head to know where we stand and move forwards.
But even if we win the case it won't be the end of it. There are lots of Labour party members in my neck of the woods who aren't going to back down on self ID, and they're in it for the long haul. They might complain about any negative effects (such as trans men losing access to maternity rights), until its pointed out to them that's an inevitable consequence of the policy they support, and then they'll just shut up about it.

The UK has a lot more judicial cases which are also in the media spotlight, compared to Germany, for example. We've had some threads covering events in Germany and the self-ID law.
It seems that the UK is far ahead in the turnaround, compared to other countries.
I, too, await the FWS court case result, because it could help campaigners in other countries, too - I know there is no direct legislative link, but the argumentation builds on similar concepts.
Though I thought that about the Cass report and it doesn't seem enough people abroad are aware of it.
The upcoming national elections in Germany could change policies on this topic but that depends on result. Since I still think that most people haven't even realized the extend of the impact on women and children and the medical problems, this might not be a criterium for many of the voters. The outcome might be a parliament divided by thirds just like in France, but hopefully it will be possible to form a working coalition without the AfD (most parties have already declared they will not work with them).

This is a misunderstanding of GRCs.

You can ask someone to prove their legal sex, which they can do by providing their birth certificate. People with a GRC are offered a new birth certificate showing the new legal sex. (If they choose not to complete the birth certificate paperwork, they can instead choose to show you the GRC instead to prove legal sex.) Someone without a GRC would have only their original birth certificate. So in that way legal sex can always be proven.

The problem is that asking people to provide birth certificates for e.g. access to a changing room is not practical and if selectively enforced (e.g. on people whose sex or gender have been questioned) would likely be illegal. Instead, people are asked for other forms of ID for which a GRC is not required e.g. driving licence where the sex/gender marker in the seventh character of your driver number can be changed by providing a statement. That has created self ID by the back door in everyday situations. No decision in this case would affect this; to resolve self-ID by the back door, passports and driving licences would need to show legal sex as shown on birth certificate / modified birth certificate.

The other issue which the EHRC has never addressed is that though it is already lawful to exclude trans women with (or without) a GRC from women’s services if doing so is a proportionate means to achieve a legitimate aim (e.g. a domestic violence shelter), there is no means to compel a trans person with a GRC to reveal their previous legal sex. That is the purpose of preventing organisations from asking to see a GRC. I.e. you can ask someone to prove their current legal sex, but you can’t require someone to reveal a previous legal sex.

Hence the law currently allows single-sex services defined by legal sex or by biological sex, but it is very difficult to enforce either of these if someone chooses to lie. That is already the situation and will not be affected by this case.

I'm hopeful that Seb Coe will be elected as the new president of the IOC and the Darlington nurses will win their cases.
It would also be good if IPSO are forced to update their guidelines, or if more publications just leave IPSO.

Here’s an encouraging thread that reviews important events in fighting gender ideology in 2024:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1873740787650883762.html

No. Sadly. It will go on for a long time.

Thanks for clarifying.
However, do you agree that if the case confirms that the word ‘woman’ when used in statute sometimes means a natal female then at least a natal female objecting to the presence of a natal
male in a single sex space will
be less likely to be subject to sanctions by her employer or prosecuted etc.

I think so.

I remember my brother, works in California, has BBC contacts, Guardian reader etc is wokier than woke, he berated me in year 2020 (the year of Laurel Hubbard and JKR's infamous Tweet) for being a horrible anti trans fascist person.

Now in 2025 he's joined the dark side. Sort of...

He's still a bloke obviously so doesn't "get it" re pronouns etc, but HAS conceded that sometimes TW are not the same as W which is a HUGE step forward for a TWAW mantra dude.

But he's not the only one. I don't see Mermaids or Stonewall continuing on their TWAW trajectory. I just can't see it happening anymore.

No. It's gonna take a long time I fear.

I am hopeful that it will @TheywontletmehavethenameIwant.

My DstepD finally took the he/him pronouns out of her insta bio today (6 and a bit years after her secondary school transed her without parental permission).

I’m hoping this turns out to be foreshadowing for the end of trans ideology in general.

🤞

Just noticed this in the Telegraph

https://archive.ph/ijwwp

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/01/04/teacher-wins-450k-payout-in-trans-pronouns-and-names-row/

I don't know if Ohio is a red or blue state.

Interesting. (Ohio is Republican.)

She won her case under the First Amendment, which guarantees free speech - we don't have an equivalent here, of course. I'd be interested to know if that sets a precedent for other teachers or employees in a similar situation.

In this country there’s hope. In others it’s still very much a real threat to sanity. See Australia - Tickle vs Giggle

Or, the next time that IPSO advertises for members of its panel, GC people apply?

The decline will be incremental and over a period of time. I reckon another 20 years until the fad has truly run its course. That doesn't mean that no effort is required. It still needs to be challenged at every turn and continually held up for scrutiny.

Hi TheCloglady i’m so pleased to hear this. I’ve followed your previous posts. Was there anything in particular that changed for your DstepD which instigated this? I am considering finding a therapist for my DD but not sure if this would do more harm than good.

Not sure if you have heard of this therapy association @kinfauns ?
https://just-therapy.org/

Set up by James Esses https://jamesesses.com/

I wish there was something I could say that could help others but I honestly think it just became uninteresting to her. It’s just not the
cool new thing anymore.

Like Dr Az Hakeem says, it’s not really gender dysphoria in a lot of these teens, it’s more like a subculture (and an excuse/explanation for something else, eg not wanting to become an adult/having an undiagnosed eating disorder/something traumatic happening either within the family or to the teen themselves (perhaps with a side order of emergent same sex attraction and internalised/societal homophobia).

Unfortunately My DsD changed her name legally as soon as she was able to do so (day after her 16th birthday) and has changed all her ID/opened bank accounts/student finance with that name so unless she is willing to actually admit that her parents were right and she wouldn’t want a Victorian Ghost Boy/Anime character moniker when the phase passed she’s going to be stuck with that for the foreseeable. Still, much easier to live with name regret than surgical regret (the daft thing is her birth name is neutral and is mostly used for males in other parts of the world, so it was always more about reinvention/playing a character than it was about being ‘male’ inside).

re: working with a therapist or counsellor I have come to the belief that it’s better to find someone who is willing to work with the parents as a sort of proxy for the teen.
A therapist can coach you in the best ways to respond to the teens behaviour as well as provide support for you.

it’s a waste of money to pay for private therapy if the person isn’t willing to engage fully and to make improvements, and teens in the thick of this very rarely are.

if there is anything comorbid (eg ADHD/ASD or an eating disorder or perhaps a bereavement) then it may be worth finding support for that but only if the therapist is willing to be extremely neutral on the gender stuff, otherwise the kid will likely just shut down and not engage.

Agree with above that James Esses (and/or Genspect) can probably help you find someone suitable.

Best wishes

Thank you @TheClogLady for your detailed and thoughtful reply. That’s really interesting to read. It sounds like your DstepD grew out of her trans phase. We’re not at that stage yet and my DD has an autism diagnosis which means she tends to find something she likes and obsess over it for longer than most kids. I am hoping she will grow out of this before she attempts a medical transition. Your advice about therapy sounds right to me. One of the reasons I’ve been hesitating over therapy for my DD is that I’m not sure that any focus on trans stuff (either positive or negative) is healthy - I’d rather she was doing something completely unrelated and not dwelling on it.

Having said that, I’m very grateful to @ellenback21 for the link to James Esses’ therapists. I follow him on X, his tweets are always good.

Also apologies to @TheywontletmehavethenameIwant for derailing your thread. I really wish 2025 would be the year when trans ideology topples but I worry that we are a long way from that happening. It is deeply embedded in institutions and prolonged by various politicians (Stella Creasey, Nadia Whittome etc criticising Wes Streeting for upholding the ban on puberty blockers) I suspect we shall just have to wait for it to go out of fashion, and it might be a long wait.

Lately I’m thinking yes it could be