Very much so, but there is also the "hero doctor" angle at play.
Although it's not about gender identity belief, this article that popped up on my newsfeed today really caught my eye as it's about that phenomenon in relation to autism, specifically non-verbal, "low functioning"** autism:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czj94xwwkkzo.amp
With my BBC impartiality scepticism, I'm unsure about whether they a providing a neutral or a biased framing of Rosemary Crossley in this article but at face value, it shows: a) how vulnerable the medical profession is to "hero doctors" who champion their approach b) how it is vulnerable people, such as those with autism, who end up losing in these scenarios. The parallel with the impact of gender identity belief being championed by hero doctors and the notably disproportionate proportion of autistic people who "identify as" something different from their sex is what struck me.
Also, I very much agree with your comment from just before the post that I've quote-grabbed:
But because I do believe that the number of predators and paedophiles in society is vastly outweighed by good responsible adults I'd have to also go with intimidation & fear of bullying (it was transphobic to want to conduct research into all this not so very long ago).
**from what I've read, Autism doesn't tend to be classed as high functioning or low functioning any more, possibly because their definitions got unhelpfully muddled. The original definitions referred to general ability to "function" in a societal context e.g. cognitive ability to use money in shops, use transport independently etc. Unfortunately these days people seem to use "high functioning" as a proxy for "academically clever" instead of "can catch the bus and buy groceries independently".