I think the first thing to point out is that it is not a rule but a guideline. Hence it is meant to give guidance not to be prescriptive, thus recognising that all children are different.
What scant research there is, concentrates on the adequacy of certain nutrients in the baby's diet, and most of the research highlights that the outcomes will be different in the still-developing world from the developed in this regard.
This paper here:
WHO publication on the adequacy of exclusive breastfeeding for 4-6 months points out that th'Particularly evident is the lack of crucial data for evaluating the nutrient adequacy of exclusive breastfeeding for the first 4-6 months.'
This paper might be starting to get to the heart of the guidance, as it is suggesting that the biggest differenciating factor in the still-developing world of exclusively breastfeeding until 6 months is that there is a lower rate of morbidity due to gastrointestinal infection. It also noted that the mother has a greater loss of post natal fat stores! In the still-developing world though, this is not seen as a positive - such is the gulf between the haves and the still-have nots!
the optimal duration of exclusive breastfeeding
It certainly seems that the reason for suggesting 6 months vs 4-6 months as a guideline for weaning is skewed somewhat by the poorer outcomes in the Honduran trials due to gastrointestinal infections. What relevance that would have in the developing world is not easy to assess.
Both papers, and a fair amount of the other research are concerned with the depletion of key nutrients (especially iron) in the 6 month sample. ALthough they did say that due to the small sample size in the first place it is not possible to say whether the increase in failure to thrive of delaying to 6 months is significant or not.
I hear what many are saying about the less risky option being to wait until 6 months, however, based on what I have read tonight, it would seem that the risk is pretty insignificant in the developed world. Of course, there will always be parents who wish to eliminate almost all risk from their babies lives (and who would criticise that) but a more balanced view as far as I can assess from the evidence presented by the WHO is that the change in outcomes between a baby who is exclusively breast fed for 4 months versus one who is exclusively breast fed for 6 months is not likely to be at all significant for the population as a whole. Of course there will be individual gainers and losers within that population, and that is where a common sense approach similar to the one suggested by Gess gains credence in my view.
Now of course the real question is what the hell am I doing spending my Sat evening wading through WHO research when my children are 7and 8 yo!