A* predictions at A level - how are your school assessing who gets one?

[Swedes2Turnips0]

Have just come back from parents' evening at school and spoke to the headmaster about how they will be predicting A* grades. Basically they are making it up as they go along and it is totally inconsistent across subjects.

Most universities are saying they aren't going to use them. But how can admissions tutors ignore what they see in front of them, even though they are not officially using it. An optimistic school predicts 4 for Johnny and a not so optimistic school would predict maybe one A or none. But they are the same candidate.

S'rubbish isn't it?

BonsoirAnna - For courses that aren't interviewed (the vast majority) there isn't anything on a UCAS form to go on but grades and a personal statement which might not even be the student's own work.

Name
Date of birth
Address
Gender
Nationality
Occupation of highest paid member of your household
Names of instutions applying to
Course codes
GCSE subjects and grades
AS level subjects and grades (sometimes these can appear as pending)
A Level predicted grades
Personal statement - 47 lines of cheesyness
Together witha refererence from your tutor/head or whatever which is normally gushing.

I would find it very difficult to determine the best candidates from this information.

mumofsatan - he might enjoy a gap year more knowing he has a deferred place ready and waiting for him on his return.

I went to an Oxbridge college in 1982 to read an over-subscribed subject and one of my tutors told me they most empathetically did look at my O level results because, back then, a lot of As showed a wide-ranging intelligence.

And there are very few places left in clearing these days, so it's not an option that you can afford to bank on.

Sadly, predicted grades matter hugely. There is no point even applying to certain universities if your predicted grades are too low.

It's a stupid system; DS1 managed to bog up his AS levels, which means his predicted grades are going to be lower than they should have been, which means he can no longer apply to some of the better universities, which means .... blah, blah, blah.

If he pulls his socks up and does well in his re-sits and in his A2s, there's a chance those universities would suddenly be available to him - but he would have to reapply, possibly take a gap year and wait another year.

Stupid. Daft. Did I say stupid?

If admissions tutors are going to ignore predicted grades, what are they going to look at? Gender? What is the job of the highest earner in the family?

BIWI - Arf. Yes and if you defer a year and go with actual grades, you are still up against those applying with overly optimistic predicted grades because some schools are being more generous than others.

I think pupils should be allowed to self-certificate. As the consequences of being overly optimistic would be not meeting your offer and ending up with no university place.

BIWI - Tell your DS to start drafting his PS now. And appeal to your son's teachers' better nature to change their minds about predicted grades and get him to start demonstrating his capabilities by working hard from right now.

BIWI - if he's genuinely working harder this year, he could well get good predicted grades, especially if re-taking modules. Speak to the teachers. If he could apply to the higher universities it might be just the thing to get him working.

My DS 'underperformed' (ahem) at GCSE but is now at a Russell Group university

Thanks for that lucycat and swedes I'm very ignorant about all this and didn't know if he would have to reapply if he turned down a place due to his gap year but sounds like he can apply with all his peers which is great as his school helps with all that. Very important as he is a full boarder and I'm usually 3,000 miles away. It appears that he has to have a gap year for technical reasons and I was worried he'd have to re-apply whilst on his gap year so hopefully not.
Like you say, it would be great to be able to relax (although he will hopefully be working hard) in the knowledge that he has his place

I believe that there has been some research to show that independent schools are likely to be more optimistic with predicted grades than maintained schools.
If a course asks for AAA and your predicted grades are ABB you almost certainly won't be offered a place.
And ... further gloom ...DS tells me that required grades are higher this year than last.

This is from the Cambridge website re the A*:

Most applicants applying to Cambridge are studying three or four A level subjects. For advice about suitable subject choices see our course requirements section.

Cambridge welcomes the introduction of the new A grade at A level. The A grade will be awarded to students who achieve an A grade overall at A level and also achieve an average of 90% or more on the uniform mark scale (UMS) across their A2 units. Analysis of our current students' achievement suggests that the vast majority would have been awarded at least one A had the grade been available when they took A levels. In light of this the standard A level conditional offer made by the Cambridge Colleges for 2010 entry will be AAA. The subject in which the A* is to be achieved is unlikely to be specified in most cases.

All Colleges modify offers to take account of individual circumstances. For example, lower offers may be made to students applying through the Cambridge Special Access Scheme whose true potential has not been realised at school because of significant educational or personal disadvantage. On the other hand, more challenging offers may be set to ensure that an applicant can cope with the demands of exams in cases where some doubt exists.

We hope that the introduction of the A* grade will enable us to return to a situation in which we make more conditional offers than we have places available and therefore more students are given the chance to win a place at Cambridge through their performance in public exams.

Thanks Swedes and thepumpkineater!

Thankfully DS1 is working hard on his PS (although I have yet to see it) - and has gone into college early two days running to speak with his tutor about it!

I am waiting to find out what his predicted grades will be, but may need to call his tutor to find out - it may already be that DS knows but hasn't told me yet. He is suspiciously quiet about some things.

Milliways - Yes, Cambridge are one of the few universities using the new A (I think Imperial are the only other). I would imagine most applicants to Oxbridge will have 4 A predictions, possibly more. Certianly most of DS1's friends applying to Oxbridge have that as a minimum. DS1 thinks he will get 3 A and 1 A and his predictions are 2 A and 2A. He didn't want to apply to Cambridge anyway as he doesn't like the structure of the medicine course and he's a bit sick of being in the public schoolboy bubble.

I am not really complaining about DS1's predicted grades, more the lack of uniformity as to how they are arrived at. He hasn't applied to a university that is using it, but I doubt they can be ignored and wonder how the information will be used by universities not using it? Will it distinguish between otherwise equal candidates?

By the way I was reading some reasearch a day or two ago that shows independent schools predict more top grades than other schools but then they achieve more top grades than other schools. Apparently poorly performing schools are the most likely to underestimate their grade predictions for their brightest pupils. This won't help with any attempts to widen access.

I think all universities should have a proper entrance exam and interview. To suggest someone is academic based on their ability (and willingness) for regurgitating a few facts, using the set textbook terminology (which is all an A level is these days) makes me whimper.

Anyway, DS1's application has gorne to UCAS now. Thank goodness I say.

Completely agree with you Swedes.

By the way my DCs' state grammar school had about 25 - 30 successful applicants to Oxbridge last year and most of whom only took 3 A2s,plus one AS.

thepumpkineater - Oh well done your DC's school. Yes, Oxbridge offers are mostly AAA aren't they? Lots of Oxbridge students have a huge number of A levels because they have done them early and have moved on to STEP and AEA. I know a few of DS1's contempories sat A2 maths in the fourth form.

It's a bit different for medicine, because you have to have A level chemistry at A grade and they like you to have biology at A grade, and most of them seem to like Maths at A grade and then they ask you to be a balanced person. For example, a typical UCL medcine offer will be AAA and an a at AS level) but they like science A levels and a contrasting A level subject (to show roundedness) which means that four subjects is in fact preferable in order to be in the running for selection but they won't form part of the offer iyswim.

Plus lots of work experience in a variety of different places (even more for those applying for veterinary science). I don't know how they fit it all in!!