@Hollyhedge Thanks for the additional information. I didn't realise your DS is about to take GCSE in May this year. I assume the grades you have provided are his mocks for triples - and then his expected score in combined/double.
The best thing to do is make sure that you are not limiting your A-level/Sixth Form choices by chosing one or the other. Have a look at entry requirments to your DS' preferred sixth forms for your prefered subjects now. Then take time to make this decision.
NB: I am not a science teacher, but I teach undergrad/post grad medicine/biology. The information I'm providing here is comes from my experiences as a university admission tutor and my experiences talking to science teachers when we do school outreach programs.
Reasons to doing double in this situation:
The grade boundaries for doubles are slightly lower overall than the grade boundaries for triple. Take AQA last year (2024) you needed an average of 36/70 (51%) per paper across the 6 combined papers to get 7 7. To get 7,7,7 in triple you needed: average 61% in physics, 65% in chemistry and 63% in biology per paper. Triple papers are also harder and test more content. You DS has already covered most of the content for triple which is really helpful in boostering grades in doubles. The teachers are correct in saying you will likely get better grades in doubles.
If you are not planning to do science beyond A-level, 7,7 in science is going to look better on University applications than 6,6,7. Universities will look at your A-levels overall. Some take an average of you scores to see your overall "ability". They will only look very carefully at the GCSE grades that are relevant to the subject you're applying for. For most arts subjects, and economics/finance double science is viewed as equivalent to triple science. In this respect you may want to maximise you grades for your uni application.
Reasons not to do the double exam in this situation:
Entry requirements for science A-levels: you are in an environment where there is triple science on offer and I assume lots of people take it. This means you are competiting against kids with good triple science grades for A-level places. A-level teachers will be used to having triple students in their class and they tend to teach to the median.
In the two academy chains where I have done the most outreach A-level science requirements are 7 at GCSE in triple in that subject, or 7,7 in doubles but the subject component has to be an 8. In one academy they do not take double science students unless they first past an internal exam (essentially the triples GCSE papers for that subject with some modified questions). These academies all offer triple science and strongly recommend all students who want to do A-level science to take triple. They are comprehensives but obviously sixth form is selective and they take students from across the borough.
If you're applying to STEM subject at Uni, your maths and sciences grades will be scrutinised. Just remember at the time you're applying the only concrete results you have are your GCSE grades, your A-levels are predicted grades and we take predicted grades with a large pinch of salt. We do look at whether you did double or triple and almost all Universities will for STEM subjects. You don't get penalised for doing double science but we also take into account that grade boundaries are lower, the paper is easier and the questions less complex. We have studied the papers, the mark scheme and the grade boundaries. We have asked candidates at interview in the past why they chose double over triple. It is a legitimate question because if you love science why didn't you chose to learn the most you could?
General thoughts about Double vs Triple course for people who are able to choose:
You can do A-level science and STEM subjects at university with double science. Double science does not limit your potential, it only limits your knowledge in certain areas. How you ulimately perform at A-level (and in the rest of your life) depends on how much work you put in.
If you have the choice of triple vs double and if you want to do STEM subjects at A-level and beyond, chose triple. You will get to learn more about the subjects you love, your learning curve at A-level will be easier and it provides more opportunities later on.
Keep in mind sixth forms are selective - they set their own requirements for who is eligible to take each A-level subject and this can vary greatly. The reality is they prefer triple students at A-level to double students who get the same grade. Whatever you chose make sure you are not inadvertently restricting your choices at A-level.
Finally, university admissions understand some people don't have a choice at GCSE of whether they do double or triple. However university isn't school, competition isn't always fair. When you apply you are competing against a large national pool of candidates who did do triple science and got really good grades. They have the advantage.