Grade inflation and leading independent schools in London and beyond

[YesterdayandToday]

Last week, this was in the news. I am surprised nobody initiated a discussion on this (or maybe, I missed).

NLCS, SPGS and a many of the GDST's highlighted in the Times. What do you guys think?

"Teachers at dozens of private schools at least doubled the proportion of A*s handed out to their A-level pupils last year compared with 2019, when children last sat public exams, a new analysis shows.

In 2019, 16.1 per cent of private school pupils had their A-levels graded A*. In 2021 — when teachers decided what marks to award their pupils — the proportion jumped to 39.5 per cent.

Research by The Sunday Times shows for the first time the extent of the grade inflation in individual schools. At North London Collegiate School, a girls’ school in Edgware whose senior fees are more than £21,000 a year, the proportion of A* grades soared from 33.8 per cent in 2019 to 90.2 per cent last summer. The 56.4 percentage point increase is the highest recorded in the investigation."

"Among the leading private schools that have not published detailed A-level results are Eton College, King’s College School, Wimbledon, Westminster School and the Manchester Grammar School."

"At St Paul’s Girls’ School in Hammersmith, west London, which has topped the Parent Power independent school rankings for nine of the past ten years, As rose from 52.1 per cent to 87.5 per cent. Derby High School saw A grades rise from 6.5 per cent to 53.9 per cent, a 47.4 percentage point rise, second only to North London Collegiate."

"At Eltham College in southeast London, A* grades rose from 29.1 per cent to 72.2 per cent, a 43.1 percentage point rise."

I found the algorithm pretty accurate tbh! But it was unfair at the bottom end for sure.

The algorithm may have been accurate in some cases but it was very much skewed for certain types of schools so therefore totally unfair.

Sorry I can't post from my phone but if you look on the hmc.org.uk website under press release section in their statement you can see their stats that show the % increase at A* A level was greater in state sector than the private sector. The letters printed in the Sunday Times last Sunday are worth reading too, the original article wasn't balanced.

@FoggySpecs

I actually think they probably did this quite legitimately, those schools invested heavily in technology and teaching resources right at the start of the pandemic. Kids had great support from the school and parents from day one.

Teacher assessment had to follow guidelines, grades were awarded based on certain criteria, because most schools lost a lot of learning time, expectations for assessments were adjusted and lowered across all schools. Schools that continued to offer schooling as usual were able to go far beyond providing the minimum expectations which meant their students performed better and lead to grade inflation.

If the public exams had gone ahead instead of using teacher assessed grades, the grade boundaries are likely to have been more generous. This is precisely what Ofqual has just announced in relation to the current batch of students taking their A levels in May/June this year.

Therefore, it is very likely that the result would be the same. A day school would under that regime also be likely to see their 30% A*s go up to 70% legitimately. Covid is shit but the truth is the private schools handled the teaching better.

Chantico: Which makes it really shit for those taking exams this year, after considerable disruption over the last two years, as they face a very uneven playing field with so many deferrals plus offers to those who already have higher grades. I dont know how much admissions tutors can do to be fair to this year's cohort

That is a very valid point. Generous grade boundaries will be how Ofqual is leveling up between the current batch of A level students with the previous. We are likely to see 2-3 years of inflated grades for the covid-hit batches. Which is unfair to the year after ... and so on.

I meant to say I agree with FoggySpecs

@sunshineclouds24

Sorry I can't post from my phone but if you look on the hmc.org.uk website under press release section in their statement you can see their stats that show the % increase at A* A level was greater in state sector than the private sector. The letters printed in the Sunday Times last Sunday are worth reading too, the original article wasn't balanced.

Thanks for this.

"When we actually look at the numbers at A Level for example, the claims of ‘gaming’ simply do not stand up. At independent schools, 9,513 more entries were awarded A/A at A Level in 2021 than in 2020; likewise, in the state sector, 43,981 more entries. Those additional 9,513 independent sector entries represent an increase of 16.9% relative to the number awarded A/A in 2020, and the additional 43,981 state sector entries represent an increase of 21.4% relative the corresponding state sector entries in 2020."

But given the say average of uplift of about 20% across independent and state, anything much more than this is unfair.

@blueshoes - "A day school would under that regime also be likely to see their 30% A*s go up to 70% legitimately. Covid is shit but the truth is the private schools handled the teaching better."

Yes, but the grades should still be in line with historical grades.

I am going to rank up the London days schools tomorrow.

I am wondering what the senior people of say NLCS, SPGS, KCS, Wimbledon told the current parents after the news was released. And how will these schools justify to this year's students/parents when grades go down this year ...

Yesterday: I am wondering what the senior people of say NLCS, SPGS, KCS, Wimbledon told the current parents after the news was released. And how will these schools justify to this year's students/parents when grades go down this year ...

The head at one of the schools mentioned was quite punchy and 'proud' of his students. I don't think parents will mind. The students hit by Covid have had a tough time across the board. If I paid school fees, I would want a little grade inflation myself for my dcs. People get it.

I'd be interested to see the results of your London day school ranking.

@YesterdayandToday , the schools
wont say anything because as all the letters and press releases say the grades were assessed in a different way and can't be compared to taking 1 set of exams. The Sunday times has an education journalist who is against private schools.

I am still awake. Here you go:

At least 25%* A-level Uplift in London Schools

NLCS 56.4%
Eltham 43.1%
PHS GDST 40.3%
St Augustine’s Priory 37.2%
SPGS 35.4%
WHS GDST 33.7%
SHHS GDST 33.7%
NHEHS GDST 33%
JAGS 32.9%
Channing 31.3%
Bancroft 29.9%
CLSG 29.6%
FHRP 29.1%
St James’ Girls 28.7%
SCHS GDST 28%
Sutton Grammar 27%
SPS (St Paul’s Boys) 26.8%
FHSS 26%
BH GDST 25.3%

*25% because the mean+SD of state and independent (1:1) is around 23.

[quote opoponax]@bendmeoverbackwards but the intrinsic value of A Levels is to open the door to the next level isn't it. And no one really cares about A Level grades once you have your degree (and I suspect this is even more the case for those awarded in 2020 and 2021). The only way a retrospective adjustment would count is if the grades in hand yet to be leveraged were adjusted but then there would be a big in-year disconnect with the rest of the cohort who are already in situ having leveraged their initial grades.[/quote]
I only wish that were true @opoponax The pressure on students to achieve top grades, higher than their university offers, is immense. And for top independent schools A* grades sound so much better than As.

There's already a bit of a trend towards "contextualizing" state school pupils' grades---I guess this trend is likely to continue and universities may be a bit cynical about a "private school A" as a result.

@blueshoes was the Head of the school you are talking about punchy enough to go public on their A level results too ? I think your statement "If I paid school fees, I would want a little grade inflation myself for my dcs. People get it" is really quite shocking. Basically what you are saying is that it is quite justifiable to be buying grade advantage. I would not want my children to be part of any school with that ethos (if indeed it does exist).

My DC got very top grades in their schools and furthermore, they actually earned them.

@bendmeoverbackwards I am only too aware of the pressure DC put on themselves within high achieving schools to hit their top grades. My own DS would have been furious with himself if he had not hit A stars in all his A Levels, despite not needing all A stars for Medical School. But the point I am making is that the tangibility of the results is to open the door to the University course they want and anything above that, although valid, is self-fulfilment.

Yesterday, thanks for toting up the scores but that is not London day schools across the board.

opoponax: My DC got very top grades in their schools and furthermore, they actually earned them.

So nice to hear more than once about the top grades your dcs are getting, having 'earned' them in old money.

The truth is, and I have always felt it, is that the students who are most disadvantaged by grade inflation are precisely the top students who would have got the As. They are no longer able to distinguish themselves in a sea of As.

In the immortal words of Syndrome in The Incredibles, "if everyone is a Super, then no one is a Super".

From my experience, Every 'uplift' grade had written papers behind it, taken under assessed conditions, moderated for double marking and triple marked for any diffs of opinion. Massive s/sheets of every score a pupil ever got across 2 yrs , with lots of statistics for year group , meeting with HOD to discuss every pupil. Folders with assessed work in for every pupil in case of work scrutiny. Could go on. Process was robust inc focus to keep numbers realistic Vly

Not read Times rebuttal stuff- maybe they said similar. -
My conclusion:

1. Never worked so hard as in Spring / Summer term 2021

1. Exams are a poor system that do not get the best out of, or for our young people. The grades seem in 2021 were a truer reflection of ability as judged by professionals. Other years with exams have deflated the true figures.

@blueshoes your reply was "If I paid school fees, I would want a little grade inflation myself for my dcs. People get it".Hopefully that is not representative of how most parents do think.

If you had actually read my comments you would see that I said there were aberrations across the board and not specific to one sector. I said that the danger of just looking at % change of sectors as a whole was masking the real issue of the outliers irrespective of the sector.

Speaking of naivety, do you really think that parents won't care if future cohorts' A level results are 'contextualised" against significantly higher achievements in previous years?

And again, before passing comment @blueshoes. if you had actually read what I wrote, that is precisely the situation my DS was in. He would have got A stars in a normal year and his A stars didn't mean that much last year. But that's life and he's on to the next stage of education now. No personal axes to grind here as my DC are absolutely fine. However, my interest is thankfully far wider than my own children.

Speaking of naivety, do you really think that parents won't care if future cohorts' A level results are 'contextualised" against significantly higher achievements in previous years

Can you explain this. Contextualised by whom and for what purpose and why I should be scared?

Sorry about your dcs not shining as brightly as they could but we all move on, yes? Nice dig about your having wider interests than your dcs. Do polish that halo.

@yourmumis

From my experience, Every 'uplift' grade had written papers behind it, taken under assessed conditions, moderated for double marking and triple marked for any diffs of opinion. Massive s/sheets of every score a pupil ever got across 2 yrs , with lots of statistics for year group , meeting with HOD to discuss every pupil. Folders with assessed work in for every pupil in case of work scrutiny. Could go on. Process was robust inc focus to keep numbers realistic Vly Not read Times rebuttal stuff- maybe they said similar. - My conclusion:

1. Never worked so hard as in Spring / Summer term 2021

1. Exams are a poor system that do not get the best out of, or for our young people. The grades seem in 2021 were a truer reflection of ability as judged by professionals. Other years with exams have deflated the true figures.

This is certainly the case at the school that my dd attended, who was the 2020 GCSE batch. The evidence the teachers put together was phenomenal. I also agree that exams are not the best way to test every student. I say that as someone who knew how to 'game' an exam whilst other students fall apart under exam conditions and the intense study that leads up to it.

Not a dig about having wider interest in the issue. I do care beyond my own children and it's nothing to do with virtue signalling or criticising any one type of school. It's different standards across schools irrespective of sector that's the key issue. I'm assuming that you do actually understand contextualisation if you have a child in Y13 but if you don't I suggest you ask someone else to explain it to you as I don't wish to engage any further.

I do have a child in Y13. I don't see how contextualisation is relevant to your point in the usual context (ha!) in which it is used and I may never find out but I think I can live with that.

Grade inflation was not done only by private schools. State schools did similar, hence the massive increase in grades overall.

A friend’s DD got all 4s and 5s in her GCSEs but was awarded 3 A grades in her A levels last year. She was at a good London State school. She had previously been expecting C and D grades.